ZAMANLARARASI DIŞ DENGE KISITI YAKLAŞIMI ÇERÇEVESİNDE TÜRKİYE’DE BÜTÇE AÇIĞININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3, 91 - 110, 23.05.2013

Mehmet Mercan Mehmet Mercan

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki bütçe açığının sürdürülebilirliği;
1987:M1-2013:M2 dönemi verileriyle üç farklı model kullanılarak analiz
edilmiştir: Modellerde, merkezi yönetim reel bütçe gelirleri ve merkezi yönetim
reel bütçe harcamaları (faiz ödemeleri dahil) serileri kullanılarak, Johansen eş-
bütünleşme yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Analizde 2001 sonrası uygulanan “güçlü
ekonomiye geçiş programı” nın etkilerini görmek amacıyla, 1987-2013 dönemi,
iki alt dönem ve tam dönem olarak araştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak; 1987-2001
döneminde Türkiye’de bütçe açığının oldukça zayıf formda, 2001-2013
döneminde ise güçlü formda sürdürülebilir olduğu ve 1987-2013 döneminde ise
zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bütçe açığı, Sürdürülebilirlik, Zamanlararası Denge Kısıtı.

Kaynakça

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