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TURKEY’S OBJECTIVE OF FULL MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU WITH REFERENCE TO MAASTRICHT CRITERIA

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 2, 271 - 294, 25.03.2014

Öz

The study aims to analyze whether Turkey has internalized its goal of full membership in the European Union by taking into account Turkey’s compliance with the Maastricht criteria. The study uses a cointegration approach and finds that a long-term relationship exists between the ratios of inflation rates, interest rates and budget deficit ratios with Gross Domestic Product. However, no long-term relationship was found regarding the ratio of public debt to Gross Domestic Product. The study suggests that Turkey has internalized its objective of full European Union membership from an economic perspective and that it has not deviated from this objective.

Kaynakça

  • Adam, L. B. (2012) “Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the AKP Era: Has There been a Shift in the Axis?”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, 11(3), p. 139-148.
  • Afxentiou, P. C. (2000) “Convergence, the Maastricht Criteria and Their Benefits”, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 7(1), p. 245-254.
  • Alessandri, E. (2010) “Turkey's New Foreign Policy and the Future of Turkey– EU relations”, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, 45(3), p. 85-100.
  • Atac, I. and Grünewald, A., (2008) “Stabilization through Europeanization? Discuss the Transformation Dynamics in Turkey”, Debatte: Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, 16(1), p. 31-54.
  • Bağış, E. (2011) “Bağış Evaluates Croatia’s Accession Agreement with the EU”, available at http://egemenbagis.com/en/3274, accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Barysch, K. (2010) Can Turkey Combine EU Accession and Regional Leadership?, Centre for European Reform Policy Brief, available at http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2 011/pb_barysch_turkey_25jan10-232.pdf, accessed 11 December 2011. Buiter, W.H. (2004) En Attendant Godot? Financial Instability Risks for Countries Targeting Euro-zone Membership, 8th Annual Conference of CEPR/ESI: EMU Enlargement to the East and the West, 24 - 25 September; Budapest.
  • Bukowski, S. I. (2006) The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Economic Growth in the EMU, Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica, No. 24, Perugia: Università di Perugia.
  • Ça ğaptay, S. ‘Turkey's Turn from the West’, (02 February 2009), The Washington Post.
  • Çağaptay, S. ‘Is Turkey Leaving the West’, (26 October 2009), Foreign Affairs.
  • Commission of the European Communities, (2010), Turkey 2010 Progress Report, 09 November.
  • Commission of the European Communities, (2012), Turkey 2012 Progress Report, 10 November.
  • Council of the European Union, (2004), Presidency Conclusion 16238 / 1 / 04, 16-17 December.
  • Council of the European Union, (2006a), Council Decision of 23 January 2006 on the Principles, Priorities and Conditions Contained in the Accession Partnership with Turkey L 22 / 34, 26 January.
  • Council of the European Union, (2006b), Press Release 2770 th Council Meeting 16289 / 06, 11December.
  • Crooke, A. ‘Turkey's Shifting Diplomacy’, (28 November 2009), New York Times.
  • Davutoğlu, A. (2009) “Turkish Foreign Policy and the EU in 2010”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, 8(3), p. 11-17.
  • Eder, M. (2003) “Implementing the Economic Criteria of EU Membership: How Difficult is It for Turkey?”, Turkish Studies, 4(1), p. 219 - 244.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987) “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), p. 251
  • Marelli, E., and Signorelli, M. (2010) “Institutional, Nominal and Real Convergence in Europe”, Banks and Bank Systems, 5(2), p. 140-155.
  • European Central Bank, (2006), Convergence Report May 2006.
  • European Union, (1992), The Treaty on European Union, 7 February.
  • Faucompret, E. and Konnings, J. (2010), Turkish Accession to the EU: Satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria, Routledge, Oxon & New York.
  • Frankel, J. (2004) Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU, Conference on Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges, Prague: National Bank.
  • Glynn, J., Nelson, P., and Reetu, V. (2007) “Unit Root Tests and Structural Breaks: A Survey with Applications”, Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, 3, p. 63-79.
  • Heisenberg, D. (2006), “From the Single Market to the Single Currency”, Dinan D., Origins and Evolution of the European Union, Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 233 - 252.
  • “2007’de Maastricht kriterleri yakalanacak [Maastricht Criteria is to be held in 2007]”, (14 December 2003), Hürriyet, available at http://webarsiv.hurriyet.com.tr/2003/12/14/384916.asp, accessed 11 December 2011.
  • International Monetary Fund, (2012), International Financial Statistics.
  • Kanat, K. B. (2010) “AK Party’s Foreign Policy: Is Turkey Turning Away from the West”, Insight Turkey, 12 (1), p. 205 -225.
  • Kocenda, E. Kutan, A. M. and Yiğit, T. M. (2008) “Fiscal Convergence in the European Union”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 19(3), p. 319-330.
  • Koukouritakis, M. and Michelis, L. (2003) EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU?, Economic Publications and Research, No. 6, Toronto: Ryerson University.
  • Kutan, A. M. and Yiğit, T. M. (2004) “Nominal and Real Stochastic Convergence of Transition Economies”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, p. 23-36.
  • Kutlu, V. and Kavrukkoca, N. (2007) “Evaluating the Maastricht Convergence Criteria for New Prospective European Union Members”, Central Bank Review, 7(1), p. 13-26.
  • Lavrac, V. (2004) Fulfillment of Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Acceding Countries, Ezoneplus Working Paper, No.21, Berlin: Freie University.
  • Lewis, J. and Staerh, K. (2010) “The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 48(3), p. 687 - 708.
  • McCormick, J. (2005) Understanding the European Union: A Concise Introduction, Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire and New York.
  • Müftüler, M. (1995) “Turkish Economic Liberalization and European Integration”, Middle Eastern Studies, 31(1), p. 85-98.
  • ‘2007’de Maastricht kriterleri yakalanacak [Maastricht Criteria is to be held in 2007]’, (02 April 2004), Ntvmsnbc, available at http://arsiv.ntvmsnbc.com/news/264208.asp, accessed 11 December 20
  • Oğuzlu, T. (2008) “Middle Easternization of Turkey’s Foreign Policy: Does Turkey Dissociate from the West”, Turkish Studies, 9(1), p. 3-20.
  • Oğuzlu, T. (2012) “Turkey and the European Union: Europeanization without Membership”, Turkish Studies, 13(2), p. 229 -243.
  • Öniş, Z. (2008) “Turkey-EU Relations: Beyond the Current Stalemate”, Insight Turkey, 10(2), p. 35 -50.
  • Öniş, Z., and Bakır, C. (2007) “Turkey’s Political Economy in the Age of Financial Globalization: The Significance of the EU Anchor”, South European Society and Politics, 12(2), p. 147 - 164.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Yongcheol, S., and Smith, R. J. (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), p. 289 -326.
  • Privatization Administration. (2010) Privatization Endeavour in Turkey, Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry, available at: http://www.oib.gov.tr/yayinlar/publications.htm.
  • Siklos, P. L. (2010) “Meeting Maastricht: Nominal Convergence of the New Member States toward EMU?”. Economic Modelling, 27(2), p. 507 5
  • Sikulova, I. (2007) “Maastricht Inflation Criterion and Price Level Convergence in the New Member States”, Poloucek, S., and Stavarek, D., Future of the European Monetary Integration Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Finance and Banking, Silesian University, Karvina, p. 752 -768.
  • State Planning Organization. (2001) Long–Term Strategy and Eight Five–Year Development Plan 2001–2005, Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry, available at http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/plan/viii/plan8i.pdf, accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Tang, C. T. (2003) “Japanese Aggregate Import Demand Function: Reassessment from the Bounds Testing Approach”, Japan and the World Economy, 15(4), p. 419-436.
  • Tang, X., and Zhou, J. (2013) “Nonlinear Relationship Between the Real Exchange Rate and Economic Fundamentals: Evidence from China and Korea”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 32 (C), p. 3043
  • Tekerek, T. ‘Mehmet Altan: Dindar Bir Kemalizm İstemiyoruz [Mehmet Altan: We do not Want a Religous Kemalism”, (07 April 2007) Taraf.
  • Transatlantic Trends, (2004), available at http://trends.gmfus. org/files/ archived/doc/ 2004_english_key.pdf , accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Transatlantic Trends, (2010), available at http://trends.gmfus. org/files/ archived/doc/ 2010_ English_Key.pdf , accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Uğur, M. (2008), The Turkish Economy and the EU connection: The Case for Moving Beyond Engineered Uncertainty, Hug, A., Turkey in Europe: The Economic Case for Turkey Membership of the European Union, The Foreign Policy Center, London, pp. 26-36.
  • Voyvoda, E. and Yeldan, E. (2005) “Managing Turkish Debt: An OLG Investigation of the IMF’s Fiscal Programming Model for Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(6), p. 743-765.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992) “Further Evidence of the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), p. 251 - 270.

Turkey’s Objective of Full Membership in the EU with reference to Maastricht Criteria

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 2, 271 - 294, 25.03.2014

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin Maastricht kriterlerine uyumunu dikkate alarak, Avrupa Birliği tam üyelik hedefini içselleştirip içselleştirmediğini analiz etmektir. Çalışma eş bütünleşme yöntemini benimsemekte; enflasyon, faiz ve bütçe açığının gayri safi yurtiçi hâsılaya oranlarında uzun dönemli bir ilişki tespit etmektir. Ancak,  kamu borcunun gayri safi yurtiçi hâsılaya oranında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Sonuç olarak, çalışma Türkiye'nin ekonomik açıdan Avrupa Birliği tam üyelik hedefini içselleştirdiğini ve bu amacından sapmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Adam, L. B. (2012) “Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the AKP Era: Has There been a Shift in the Axis?”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, 11(3), p. 139-148.
  • Afxentiou, P. C. (2000) “Convergence, the Maastricht Criteria and Their Benefits”, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 7(1), p. 245-254.
  • Alessandri, E. (2010) “Turkey's New Foreign Policy and the Future of Turkey– EU relations”, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, 45(3), p. 85-100.
  • Atac, I. and Grünewald, A., (2008) “Stabilization through Europeanization? Discuss the Transformation Dynamics in Turkey”, Debatte: Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, 16(1), p. 31-54.
  • Bağış, E. (2011) “Bağış Evaluates Croatia’s Accession Agreement with the EU”, available at http://egemenbagis.com/en/3274, accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Barysch, K. (2010) Can Turkey Combine EU Accession and Regional Leadership?, Centre for European Reform Policy Brief, available at http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/attachments/pdf/2 011/pb_barysch_turkey_25jan10-232.pdf, accessed 11 December 2011. Buiter, W.H. (2004) En Attendant Godot? Financial Instability Risks for Countries Targeting Euro-zone Membership, 8th Annual Conference of CEPR/ESI: EMU Enlargement to the East and the West, 24 - 25 September; Budapest.
  • Bukowski, S. I. (2006) The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Economic Growth in the EMU, Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica, No. 24, Perugia: Università di Perugia.
  • Ça ğaptay, S. ‘Turkey's Turn from the West’, (02 February 2009), The Washington Post.
  • Çağaptay, S. ‘Is Turkey Leaving the West’, (26 October 2009), Foreign Affairs.
  • Commission of the European Communities, (2010), Turkey 2010 Progress Report, 09 November.
  • Commission of the European Communities, (2012), Turkey 2012 Progress Report, 10 November.
  • Council of the European Union, (2004), Presidency Conclusion 16238 / 1 / 04, 16-17 December.
  • Council of the European Union, (2006a), Council Decision of 23 January 2006 on the Principles, Priorities and Conditions Contained in the Accession Partnership with Turkey L 22 / 34, 26 January.
  • Council of the European Union, (2006b), Press Release 2770 th Council Meeting 16289 / 06, 11December.
  • Crooke, A. ‘Turkey's Shifting Diplomacy’, (28 November 2009), New York Times.
  • Davutoğlu, A. (2009) “Turkish Foreign Policy and the EU in 2010”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, 8(3), p. 11-17.
  • Eder, M. (2003) “Implementing the Economic Criteria of EU Membership: How Difficult is It for Turkey?”, Turkish Studies, 4(1), p. 219 - 244.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987) “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), p. 251
  • Marelli, E., and Signorelli, M. (2010) “Institutional, Nominal and Real Convergence in Europe”, Banks and Bank Systems, 5(2), p. 140-155.
  • European Central Bank, (2006), Convergence Report May 2006.
  • European Union, (1992), The Treaty on European Union, 7 February.
  • Faucompret, E. and Konnings, J. (2010), Turkish Accession to the EU: Satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria, Routledge, Oxon & New York.
  • Frankel, J. (2004) Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU, Conference on Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges, Prague: National Bank.
  • Glynn, J., Nelson, P., and Reetu, V. (2007) “Unit Root Tests and Structural Breaks: A Survey with Applications”, Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, 3, p. 63-79.
  • Heisenberg, D. (2006), “From the Single Market to the Single Currency”, Dinan D., Origins and Evolution of the European Union, Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 233 - 252.
  • “2007’de Maastricht kriterleri yakalanacak [Maastricht Criteria is to be held in 2007]”, (14 December 2003), Hürriyet, available at http://webarsiv.hurriyet.com.tr/2003/12/14/384916.asp, accessed 11 December 2011.
  • International Monetary Fund, (2012), International Financial Statistics.
  • Kanat, K. B. (2010) “AK Party’s Foreign Policy: Is Turkey Turning Away from the West”, Insight Turkey, 12 (1), p. 205 -225.
  • Kocenda, E. Kutan, A. M. and Yiğit, T. M. (2008) “Fiscal Convergence in the European Union”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 19(3), p. 319-330.
  • Koukouritakis, M. and Michelis, L. (2003) EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU?, Economic Publications and Research, No. 6, Toronto: Ryerson University.
  • Kutan, A. M. and Yiğit, T. M. (2004) “Nominal and Real Stochastic Convergence of Transition Economies”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, p. 23-36.
  • Kutlu, V. and Kavrukkoca, N. (2007) “Evaluating the Maastricht Convergence Criteria for New Prospective European Union Members”, Central Bank Review, 7(1), p. 13-26.
  • Lavrac, V. (2004) Fulfillment of Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Acceding Countries, Ezoneplus Working Paper, No.21, Berlin: Freie University.
  • Lewis, J. and Staerh, K. (2010) “The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 48(3), p. 687 - 708.
  • McCormick, J. (2005) Understanding the European Union: A Concise Introduction, Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire and New York.
  • Müftüler, M. (1995) “Turkish Economic Liberalization and European Integration”, Middle Eastern Studies, 31(1), p. 85-98.
  • ‘2007’de Maastricht kriterleri yakalanacak [Maastricht Criteria is to be held in 2007]’, (02 April 2004), Ntvmsnbc, available at http://arsiv.ntvmsnbc.com/news/264208.asp, accessed 11 December 20
  • Oğuzlu, T. (2008) “Middle Easternization of Turkey’s Foreign Policy: Does Turkey Dissociate from the West”, Turkish Studies, 9(1), p. 3-20.
  • Oğuzlu, T. (2012) “Turkey and the European Union: Europeanization without Membership”, Turkish Studies, 13(2), p. 229 -243.
  • Öniş, Z. (2008) “Turkey-EU Relations: Beyond the Current Stalemate”, Insight Turkey, 10(2), p. 35 -50.
  • Öniş, Z., and Bakır, C. (2007) “Turkey’s Political Economy in the Age of Financial Globalization: The Significance of the EU Anchor”, South European Society and Politics, 12(2), p. 147 - 164.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Yongcheol, S., and Smith, R. J. (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), p. 289 -326.
  • Privatization Administration. (2010) Privatization Endeavour in Turkey, Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry, available at: http://www.oib.gov.tr/yayinlar/publications.htm.
  • Siklos, P. L. (2010) “Meeting Maastricht: Nominal Convergence of the New Member States toward EMU?”. Economic Modelling, 27(2), p. 507 5
  • Sikulova, I. (2007) “Maastricht Inflation Criterion and Price Level Convergence in the New Member States”, Poloucek, S., and Stavarek, D., Future of the European Monetary Integration Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Finance and Banking, Silesian University, Karvina, p. 752 -768.
  • State Planning Organization. (2001) Long–Term Strategy and Eight Five–Year Development Plan 2001–2005, Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry, available at http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/plan/viii/plan8i.pdf, accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Tang, C. T. (2003) “Japanese Aggregate Import Demand Function: Reassessment from the Bounds Testing Approach”, Japan and the World Economy, 15(4), p. 419-436.
  • Tang, X., and Zhou, J. (2013) “Nonlinear Relationship Between the Real Exchange Rate and Economic Fundamentals: Evidence from China and Korea”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 32 (C), p. 3043
  • Tekerek, T. ‘Mehmet Altan: Dindar Bir Kemalizm İstemiyoruz [Mehmet Altan: We do not Want a Religous Kemalism”, (07 April 2007) Taraf.
  • Transatlantic Trends, (2004), available at http://trends.gmfus. org/files/ archived/doc/ 2004_english_key.pdf , accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Transatlantic Trends, (2010), available at http://trends.gmfus. org/files/ archived/doc/ 2010_ English_Key.pdf , accessed 11 December 2011.
  • Uğur, M. (2008), The Turkish Economy and the EU connection: The Case for Moving Beyond Engineered Uncertainty, Hug, A., Turkey in Europe: The Economic Case for Turkey Membership of the European Union, The Foreign Policy Center, London, pp. 26-36.
  • Voyvoda, E. and Yeldan, E. (2005) “Managing Turkish Debt: An OLG Investigation of the IMF’s Fiscal Programming Model for Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(6), p. 743-765.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992) “Further Evidence of the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), p. 251 - 270.
Toplam 54 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Halit Aka

Bilge Gürsoy Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Mart 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Aka, H., & Gürsoy, B. (2014). TURKEY’S OBJECTIVE OF FULL MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU WITH REFERENCE TO MAASTRICHT CRITERIA. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(2), 271-294.

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