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THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES IN THE EMERGING MARKET FINANCIAL CRISES OF THE 1990S: A TIME-SERIES CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 4, 0 - , 18.11.2014

Öz

Abstract: The 1990s witnessed several remarkable international financial crises around the world, especially in emerging market countries and can be called “the international financial crises and instability era” in the history of political economy. In the financial crisis literature, the potential reasons of these crises have been extensively studied. However, the role of financial derivative instruments as one of the possible key factors in international financial crises of the emerging markets in the 1990s has not been covered fully and not undertaken empirically, especially, by a time-series cross section analysis. So this paper aims to investigate the role and significance of financial derivatives in international financial crises of the emerging market countries in the 1990s, notably the South East Asian Crisis of 1997 and the Brazilian Crisis of 1999, in an analytical manner through a time-series cross section approach. The major findings indicate that financial derivatives, designed to hedge financial risks, have exposed emerging market economies to remarkable risks and financial instabilities in the 1990s and they had role in such crises both directly and indirectly.

Kaynakça

  • Akiba H and Jia Y (2007) Reassessment of Currency Index by Fundamentals. Annals of Economics and Finance 1: 57–85.
  • Beattie J (2000) Contagion in Latin America: An Analysis of Credit Derivatives. Duke University and Goldman Sachs.
  • Beck N (2001) Time-Series–Cross-Section Data: What Have We Learned In The Past Few Years? Annual Review of Political Science 4: 271–293. Beck N and Katz J N (1995) What To Do (And Not To Do) With Time-Series Cross-Section Data. The American Political Science Review 89(3): 6346
  • Chatrath A, Ramchander S and Song F (1996) The Role of Futures Trading Activity in Exchange Rate Volatility. The Journal of Futures Markets 16(5): 561-584.
  • Corsetti G, Pesenti P and Roubini N (1999) Fundamental Determinants of the Asian Crisis: The Role of Financial Fragility and External Imbalances. NBER Tenth Annual East Asia Seminar.
  • Darby MR (1994) Over-The-Counter Derivatives and Systemic Risk To The Global Financial System. NBER Working Paper No. 4801.
  • Derivatives Study Centre. Derivatives Glossary. http://www.financialpolicy.org/dscglossary.htm . Accessed 15 April 200 Dodd R (2000) The Role of Derivatives in the East Asian Financial Crisis. CEPA- Centre for Economic Policy Analysis- Working Paper Series III, International Capital Markets and the Future of Economic Policy, Working Paper No. 20.
  • Dodd R (2002a) Derivatives, the Shape of International Capital Flows and the Virtues of Prudential Regulation. United Nations University WIDER Discussion Paper No. 2002/93.
  • Dodd R (2002b) The Role of Derivatives in the East Asian Financial Crisis. In: Eatwell J. and Taylor L. (eds), International Capital Markets- Systems in Transition. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 447-474.
  • Dodd R (2003) Consequences of Liberalising Derivatives Markets. Financial Policy Forum Derivatives Study Centre.
  • Edison HJ (2000) Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation Of An Early Warning System. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 675.
  • Eichengreen B, Rose A K and Wyplosz C (1995) Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks. Economic Policy 21: 251–312.
  • Eichengreen B, Rose A K and Wyplosz C (1996) Contagious Currency Crises. Centre for Economic Policy Research (London), Discussion Paper, No. 14
  • Freedman D, and Peters S (1984) Bootstrapping a Regression Equation: Some Empirical Results. Journal of the American Statistical Association 79: 97Garber P M (1998) Derivatives in International Capital Flow. NBER Working Paper Series No: 6623.
  • Garber P M (2000) What You See Versus What You Get: Derivatives in International Capital Flows. In: Adams C, Litan R E and Pomerleano (eds), Managing Financial and Corporate Distress: Lessons From Asia. Brooking Books Press, pp. 361-384.
  • Garber P M and Lall S (1996) Derivative Products in Exchange Rate Crises. In: Glick R. (ed), Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Lessons from the Pacific Basin. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 206-2
  • Granville B (1999) Bingo or Fiasco? The Global Financial Situation Is Not Guaranteed. International Affairs 75(4): 713-728.
  • Hattori M (2002) On Determinants of the Depth of Currency Crisis: Fundamentals, Contagion, and Financial Liberalization. Bank of Japan International Department Working Paper Series, 02-E-2.
  • Hsaio C (1986) Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge University Press, New York.
  • Kaminsky G, Lizondo S and Reinhart CM (1997) Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. The World Bank Policy Research, Working Paper, No. 18
  • Kelly R (1995) Derivatives- A Growing Threat to the International Financial System. In: Michie J and Smith J G (eds), Managing the Global Economy. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 213-231.
  • Kregel JA (1998) Derivatives and Global Capital Flows: Applications to Asia. Cambridge Journal of Economics 22(6): 677-692.
  • Kruger M, Osakwe P and Page J (1998) Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis. Bank of Canada, Working Paper, No: 98/
  • Lien D and Zhang M (2008) A Survey of Emerging Derivatives Markets. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 44(2): 39–69.
  • Marcos M F and Cintra AM (2009) The Financial Crisis and the Global Shadow Banking System. Revue de la Régulation 5: 1-19.
  • Mathieson DJ, Roldos JE, Ramaswamy R and Ilyina A (2004) Emerging Local Securities and Derivatives Markets. World Economic and Financial Surveys. IMF, Washington, D.C.
  • McClintock B (1996) International Financial Instability and the Financial Derivatives Market. Journal of Economic Issues XXX(1): 13-33.
  • Naor N (2006) Reporting On Financial Derivatives—A Law And Economics Perspective. European Journal of Law Economics 21: 285–314.
  • Neftci SN (2002) Synthetic Assets, Risk Management and Imperfections. In: Eatwell J and Taylor L (eds), International Capital Markets- Systems in Transition. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 433-446.
  • Partnoy F (1998) F.I.A.S.C.O.: The Inside Story of a Wall Street Trader. Penguin Books, New York.
  • Rothig A (2004) Currency Futures and Currency Crises. Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics No: 136.
  • Sarialioglu-Hayali A (2010) The Global Financial Crises of the 1990s under the Shadow of Financial Derivatives- La Crisis Financiera Global de los Noventa Bajo la Sombra de los Derivados Financieros (In Spanish). Ola Financiera 6: 108-146.
  • Savona P, Maccario A and Oldani C (2000) On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives. Open Economies Review 11:S1: 149–175.
  • Steinherr A (2000) Derivatives: The Wild Beast of Finance: A Path to Effective Globalisation? John Wiley &Sons Ltd., Chichester.
  • Tickell A (2000) Dangerous Derivatives: Controlling and Creating Risks in International Money. Geoforum 31: 87-99.
  • Vlaar PJG (2000) Currency Crisis Models for Emerging Markets. Econometric Research and Special Studies Department, De Nederlandsche Bank, No.

A TIME-SERIES CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS of THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES IN THE EMERGING MARKET FINANCIAL CRISES OF THE 1990S

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 4, 0 - , 18.11.2014

Öz

The 1990s witnessed several remarkable international financial crises around the world, especially in emerging market countries and can be called “the international financial crises and instability era” in the history of political economy. In the financial crisis literature, the potential reasons of these crises have been extensively studied. However, the role of financial derivative instruments as one of the possible key factors in international financial crises of the emerging markets in the 1990s has not been covered fully and not undertaken empirically, especially, by a time-series cross section analysis. So this paper aims to investigate the role and significance of financial derivatives in international financial crises of the emerging market countries in the 1990s, notably the South East Asian Crisis of 1997 and the Brazilian Crisis of 1999, in an analytical manner through a time-series cross section approach. The major findings indicate that financial derivatives, designed to hedge financial risks, have exposed emerging market economies to remarkable risks and financial instabilities in the 1990s and they had role in such crises both directly and indirectly.

Kaynakça

  • Akiba H and Jia Y (2007) Reassessment of Currency Index by Fundamentals. Annals of Economics and Finance 1: 57–85.
  • Beattie J (2000) Contagion in Latin America: An Analysis of Credit Derivatives. Duke University and Goldman Sachs.
  • Beck N (2001) Time-Series–Cross-Section Data: What Have We Learned In The Past Few Years? Annual Review of Political Science 4: 271–293. Beck N and Katz J N (1995) What To Do (And Not To Do) With Time-Series Cross-Section Data. The American Political Science Review 89(3): 6346
  • Chatrath A, Ramchander S and Song F (1996) The Role of Futures Trading Activity in Exchange Rate Volatility. The Journal of Futures Markets 16(5): 561-584.
  • Corsetti G, Pesenti P and Roubini N (1999) Fundamental Determinants of the Asian Crisis: The Role of Financial Fragility and External Imbalances. NBER Tenth Annual East Asia Seminar.
  • Darby MR (1994) Over-The-Counter Derivatives and Systemic Risk To The Global Financial System. NBER Working Paper No. 4801.
  • Derivatives Study Centre. Derivatives Glossary. http://www.financialpolicy.org/dscglossary.htm . Accessed 15 April 200 Dodd R (2000) The Role of Derivatives in the East Asian Financial Crisis. CEPA- Centre for Economic Policy Analysis- Working Paper Series III, International Capital Markets and the Future of Economic Policy, Working Paper No. 20.
  • Dodd R (2002a) Derivatives, the Shape of International Capital Flows and the Virtues of Prudential Regulation. United Nations University WIDER Discussion Paper No. 2002/93.
  • Dodd R (2002b) The Role of Derivatives in the East Asian Financial Crisis. In: Eatwell J. and Taylor L. (eds), International Capital Markets- Systems in Transition. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 447-474.
  • Dodd R (2003) Consequences of Liberalising Derivatives Markets. Financial Policy Forum Derivatives Study Centre.
  • Edison HJ (2000) Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation Of An Early Warning System. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 675.
  • Eichengreen B, Rose A K and Wyplosz C (1995) Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks. Economic Policy 21: 251–312.
  • Eichengreen B, Rose A K and Wyplosz C (1996) Contagious Currency Crises. Centre for Economic Policy Research (London), Discussion Paper, No. 14
  • Freedman D, and Peters S (1984) Bootstrapping a Regression Equation: Some Empirical Results. Journal of the American Statistical Association 79: 97Garber P M (1998) Derivatives in International Capital Flow. NBER Working Paper Series No: 6623.
  • Garber P M (2000) What You See Versus What You Get: Derivatives in International Capital Flows. In: Adams C, Litan R E and Pomerleano (eds), Managing Financial and Corporate Distress: Lessons From Asia. Brooking Books Press, pp. 361-384.
  • Garber P M and Lall S (1996) Derivative Products in Exchange Rate Crises. In: Glick R. (ed), Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Lessons from the Pacific Basin. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 206-2
  • Granville B (1999) Bingo or Fiasco? The Global Financial Situation Is Not Guaranteed. International Affairs 75(4): 713-728.
  • Hattori M (2002) On Determinants of the Depth of Currency Crisis: Fundamentals, Contagion, and Financial Liberalization. Bank of Japan International Department Working Paper Series, 02-E-2.
  • Hsaio C (1986) Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge University Press, New York.
  • Kaminsky G, Lizondo S and Reinhart CM (1997) Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. The World Bank Policy Research, Working Paper, No. 18
  • Kelly R (1995) Derivatives- A Growing Threat to the International Financial System. In: Michie J and Smith J G (eds), Managing the Global Economy. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 213-231.
  • Kregel JA (1998) Derivatives and Global Capital Flows: Applications to Asia. Cambridge Journal of Economics 22(6): 677-692.
  • Kruger M, Osakwe P and Page J (1998) Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis. Bank of Canada, Working Paper, No: 98/
  • Lien D and Zhang M (2008) A Survey of Emerging Derivatives Markets. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade 44(2): 39–69.
  • Marcos M F and Cintra AM (2009) The Financial Crisis and the Global Shadow Banking System. Revue de la Régulation 5: 1-19.
  • Mathieson DJ, Roldos JE, Ramaswamy R and Ilyina A (2004) Emerging Local Securities and Derivatives Markets. World Economic and Financial Surveys. IMF, Washington, D.C.
  • McClintock B (1996) International Financial Instability and the Financial Derivatives Market. Journal of Economic Issues XXX(1): 13-33.
  • Naor N (2006) Reporting On Financial Derivatives—A Law And Economics Perspective. European Journal of Law Economics 21: 285–314.
  • Neftci SN (2002) Synthetic Assets, Risk Management and Imperfections. In: Eatwell J and Taylor L (eds), International Capital Markets- Systems in Transition. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 433-446.
  • Partnoy F (1998) F.I.A.S.C.O.: The Inside Story of a Wall Street Trader. Penguin Books, New York.
  • Rothig A (2004) Currency Futures and Currency Crises. Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics No: 136.
  • Sarialioglu-Hayali A (2010) The Global Financial Crises of the 1990s under the Shadow of Financial Derivatives- La Crisis Financiera Global de los Noventa Bajo la Sombra de los Derivados Financieros (In Spanish). Ola Financiera 6: 108-146.
  • Savona P, Maccario A and Oldani C (2000) On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives. Open Economies Review 11:S1: 149–175.
  • Steinherr A (2000) Derivatives: The Wild Beast of Finance: A Path to Effective Globalisation? John Wiley &Sons Ltd., Chichester.
  • Tickell A (2000) Dangerous Derivatives: Controlling and Creating Risks in International Money. Geoforum 31: 87-99.
  • Vlaar PJG (2000) Currency Crisis Models for Emerging Markets. Econometric Research and Special Studies Department, De Nederlandsche Bank, No.
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ayça Sarıalioğlu Hayali

Yayımlanma Tarihi 18 Kasım 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Sarıalioğlu Hayali, A. (2014). THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES IN THE EMERGING MARKET FINANCIAL CRISES OF THE 1990S: A TIME-SERIES CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(4). https://doi.org/10.16951/iibd.13961

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