OKUN KANUNUNDA YAŞ VE CİNSİYET ETKİSİ: G7 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 4, 123 - 140, 30.12.2018

Mehmet Güçlü

Öz

İşsizlik ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki istikrarlı ampirik ilişki
makroekonomide “Okun Kanunu” olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Okun katsayısı da bu
ilişkinin derecesini belirtmektedir. Bu çalışmada G7 ülkeleri için yaş
gruplarına ve cinsiyete özgü Okun katsayılarının hesaplanması amaçlanmıştır.
Yapılan analizler sonucunda öncelikle söz konusu ülkelerin tamamında istikrarlı
bir Okun ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Tüm ülkelerde Okun katsayısının
yaş gruplarına ve cinsiyete göre değişiklik gösterdiği ampirik olarak
kanıtlanmıştır. İşsizlik oranındaki bir artışın ekonomiye - üretim cinsinden –
maliyetinin yaş ile birlikte arttığı bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyümenin
en düşük duyarlılığı, 15-24 yaş grubunun işsizliğine gösterdiği görülmüştür.
Erkek nüfusa ait işsizlikteki bir artışın ekonomi üzerindeki daraltıcı
etkisinin İngiltere, Japonya ve İtalya’da daha yüksek olduğu görülürken; ABD,
Kanada ve Almanya’da ise durumun bunun tam tersi olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Okun Kanunu, İşsizlik

Kaynakça

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