Göller Bölgesi Yağış Verileri Trend Analizi

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 39 Sayı: 1, 258 - 273, 16.03.2018

Dilek Taylan Tuba Aydın

https://doi.org/10.17776/csj.406271

Cited By: 4

Öz

Son yıllarda nüfus artışı, kentleşme, atık su kullanım politikaları,
sanayileşme ve iklim değişikliği nedeniyle su kirliliği su kaynaklarının
yeniden değerlendirilmesi konusunu gündeme getirmiştir. Geçmişte geliştirilen
koruma planlarının geçerliliğini yitirmesi nedeniyle, bugün yapılan yeni önlem
planları kritik analizler gerektirmektedir. Bu araştırmada, Türkiye’nin Orta
Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde yeralan Göller Bölgesi aylık yağış verileri incelenmiştir.
Bu amaçla verilere homojenlik testi uygulandıktan sonra, Mann Kendall testi,
Sen testi ve lineer regresyon analizi uygulanmıştır. Tarihi aylık yağış
kayıtlarınıntrendanalizi, çalışma alanında belirlenen Ağlasun, Barla, Aksu,
Bucak, Yalvaç, Sütçüler, Kızılkaya, Kasımlar ve Gelendost meteoroloji
istasyonları için yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, tarihi yağış kayıtlarının sonuçlarını
desteklemek için bu istasyonların 3, 6, 9, 12 aylık Standart Yağış İndeksi
(SYİ) metodu ile elde edilmiş kuraklık serilerinin trend analizleri de, Mann
Kendall testi, Sen testi ve lineer regresyonu kullanılarak incelenmiştir.
Uygulanantestlerin sonuçlarına göre, dokuz istasyonun çoğunda azalma eğilimi
gözlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Göller Bölgesi, yağış, Mann Kendall testi, Sen'in testi, lineer regresyon

The Trend Analysis of Lakes Region Precipitation Data in Turkey

Öz

In recent years, population growth, urbanization, tainted water use
policies, water pollution due to industrialization and climate change has led
to the re-evaluation of water resources. Because the protection plans developed
in the past have lost their validity, the new prevention plans made today have
caused to the critical analysis. In this research, the monthly precipitation
data was analyzed for Lakes Region located in the Middle Mediterranean Regionin
Turkey. For this purpose, the data were subjected to homogeneity test, and the
Mann Kendall test, the Sen’s test and the lineer regression for trend analysis
were applied to data. The analyses for historical monthly precipitation records
were made to nine meteorological stations which identified in the study area:the Ağlasun, Barla,
Aksu, Bucak, Yalvaç, Sütçüler, Kızılkaya, Kasımlar, and Gelendost stations. Also, 3, 6,
9, 12 monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values of these stations
were examined by using the Mann Kendall test, Sen’s test and lineer regression
to support historical trend analysis. According to the results of the tests, a
decreasing trend has been observed in most of the nine stations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Lakes Region, precipitation, Mann Kendall test, Sen’s test, linearregression

Kaynakça

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