DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2016, Sayı: 49, 63 - 77, 28.07.2016

Ergin Uzgören Güray Akalin

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye’de
demokrasi ve bazı makroekonomik göstergelerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY),
üzerindeki etkilerini 1991-2013 dönemi için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı
kullanarak incelemektir. Çalışmada kullanılan makroekonomik göstergeler kişi
başına reel gelir, cari açık oranı, faiz oranları, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla
(GSYİH) deflatörü, işgücü verimliliği ve kişi başına vergi miktarıdır.
Çalışmada ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı kullanılarak elde edilen bulgular şöyle
sıralanabilir: ı) Kişi başına reel
gelirdeki bir artış DYY’leri hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde pozitif
etkilemektedir; ıı) Demokrasi, işgücü verimliliği ve kişi başına vergi miktarındaki
bir artış hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde DYY’leri negatif etkilemektedir; ııı)
Cari açık oranının DYY’ler üzerindeki kısa dönemli etkisi istatistiki olarak
anlamlı değilken, uzun dönemde cari açık oranında bir artış DYY’leri negatif
etkilemektedir; ıv) Faiz artışı kısa dönemde DYY’leri pozitif etkilemekteyken, faiz
oranının DYY’ler üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamlı
değildir; v) Son olarak enflasyonun DYY’ler üzerindeki etkisi hem uzun dönemde
hem de kısa dönemde istatistiki olarak anlamlı değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Demokrasi, İşgücü Verimliliği, ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: AN ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH

Öz

The main purpose of this study is to
examine the effects of democracy and some macroeconomic indicators on foreign
direct investment in Turkey for period 1991-2013 by using  ARDL bound testing approach. The macroeconomic indicators which used in this study
are: real income per capita, interest rates, current account deficit ratio,
gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, labor productivity and the amount of tax
per capita. This study obtained the following findings using ARDL bound testing
approach: ı) An increase in the real income per capita  has positive effects on FDI in both long and
short term; ıı) An increase in the democracy, labor productivity and amount of
tax per capita have negative effects on FDI in both long and short term; ııı)
The short-term impact of the current account deficit ratio on FDI is not
statistically significant whereas an increase in the current account deficit ratio
has negative effects on FDI in long-term; ıv) An increase in the interest has
positive effects on FDI in short-term whereas the long-term impact of interest
rate on FDI is not statistically significant; v) Finally, The impact of
inflation on FDI is not statistically significant in both long and short term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investment, Democracy, Labor Productivity, ARDL Bound Testing Approach

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