Sustainability Of Current Account Deficits In Fragile Five: Evidence From Non-Linear Unit Root Tests

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1, 121 - 134, 01.02.2018

Reşat Ceylan İbrahim Uz İsmail Çeviş

Öz

The debate on the sustainability of current account deficit is one of the unresolved matters among economist for a long time. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the issue of sustainability of current account deficits for fragile five countries by using nonlinear alternative unit root tests. The findings obtained from KSS and AESTAR tests revealed that current account deficit is sustainable in countries except for Brazil. This result is important in that the central banks in the fragile five countries, except Brazil, do not face a restriction caused by current account deficit in inflation target regime

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fragile five, current account deficit, intertemporal current account model, KSS test, AESTAR test

Kırılgan Beşlide Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği: Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testleri İle Kanıtlar

Öz

Cari açıkların sürdürülebilirliği tartışmaları, öteden beri iktisatçılar arasında görüş birliğine varılamamış önemli konulardandır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, doğrusal olmayan alternatif birim kök testlerini kullanarak, cari açıkların sürdürülebilirliği sorununu kırılgan beşli ülkeleri için analiz etmektir. Çalışmada kullanılan KSS ve AESTAR testlerinden elde edilen bulgular, Brezilya dışındaki diğer ülkelerde cari açıkların sürdürülebilir olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde Brezilya hariç, merkez bankalarının enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminde cari açık kaynaklı bir kısıtlama ile karşı karşıya olmadıklarını göstermesi bakımından önemlidir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kırılgan beşli, cari açık, dönemler arası cari hesap modeli, KSS testi, AESTAR testi

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