Farklı İktisadi Faaliyet Göstergeleri Açısından Toplam İthalat Talep Fonsiyonu: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 1 - 29, 01.12.2017

Ahmet Güney

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye Ekonomisi için beş farklı toplam ithalat talep fonksiyonu ARDL sınır testi ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) yaklaşımı ile 2003:Q1- 2016:Q3 dönemi için tahmin edilmiştir. Wang ve Lee (2012) ve Guzgor(2014) çalışmalarının temel model olarak takip edildiği bu çalışmada, beş farklı ''iktisadi faaliyet göstergesi'''nin, küresel risk algısının, nispi fiyatların ve 2008-2009 küresel ekonomik bunalımının Türk İthalat talebine uzun ve kısa dönemde etkileri araştırılmıştır. Literatür taramamızda, özellikle nihai satışların iktisadi faaliyetin bir göstergesi olarak kullanıldığı bir çalışmaya rastlanılmaması, bu anlamda çalışmamızın literatüre katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, Türkiye'de ithalat talebi ortalama gelir esnekliğinin uzun dönemde 0.84 ve kısa vadede 0.96, fiyat esnekliğinin ise hem uzun hem kısa dönemde 0.57 olduğu, 2008-2009 küresel krizinin uzun dönemde ithalatı azaltıcı etkide bulunduğunu ancak küresel risk algısının veya belirsizliğinin ithalat talebi üzerinde her iki dönemde de bir etkide bulunmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

ithalat Talep Fonsiyonu, Gelir Esnekliği, Fiyat esnekliği

Aggregate Import Demand Function In Terms Of Different Economic Activity Indicators: Turkey Sample

Öz

    In this study, it is estimated that five different aggregate import demond functions bu the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds test and error correction model(ECM) approach for the period 2003:Q1 to 2016:Q3 in the Turkish economy. In this study in which the papers of Wang-Lee (2012) and Guzgor(2014) are fellowed as fundamental model, it is investigated the effects of five different economic activity indicator, global risk perception, relative prices and the global economic depression of 2008-2009 on Turkish demand in the short and long run. As far as we investigate, no study have been found that ''final sales'' are used as an indicator of economic activity and that is why it is conceived that this study makes contribution to the literature. The empirical findings of the study show that; firstly, income elasticity in the long-run is 0,57, finally, The global crisis of 2008-2009 have effected to the import to decrease in the long-run, but the global risk perception or uncertainly of it has no effect on import demand both in the short-run and the long-run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Import Demand Function, Economic Activity, income elasticity, price elasticity

Kaynakça

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