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Simulating Heavy Precipitation with HARMONIE, HIRLAM and WRF-ARW: A Flash Flood Case Study in İstanbul, Turkey

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 13, 1 - 12, 31.08.2018
https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.417535

Öz

A big amount of precipitation was recorded in a
few hours over different places in northwest Turkey. The synoptic situation
covers a couple of days in a typical convective situation in autumn over the
Mediterranean. The paper discusses the ability of three different NWP models
(HARMONIE, High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and WRF) to forecast a
heavy precipitation event that occurred on 8–9 September 2009. The
precipitation forecast for each model is compared against rainfall observations
from 28 meteorological stations in the region. This event was a destructive
flood, and for that reason, it is important to study in depth the skill of
different NWP models in such hazardous cases. Flash flood is a hydro meteorological
phenomenon, and its forecast is a very difficult task, especially in very
populated areas. Flash floods depend on several factors; the outstanding one,
of course, is the amount of precipitation, but also the rate of precipitation,
topography, etc. All models are performed on domains centred on the Thracian
region (north-western Turkey). All three models forecast heavy rainfall in the
area; however, the locations of the most intense rainfall are off by several
tens of kilometres. The models forecast good signals of heavy precipitation,
but locations of the forecasted maxima are shifted with respect to the observed
locations.

Teşekkür

The authors are grateful to KNMI and ECMWF for financial support and supercomputing facilities, Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) for precipitation data and the radar, as well as satellite images (courtesy of EUMETSAT), as well as the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Center of Disaster Coordination (AKOM) for precipitation data.

Kaynakça

  • EM-DAT (2012). Trends and Relationships Periods 1900–2008: Emergency Events Database. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
  • Bich TH, Quang LN, Ha LTT, Hanh TTD and Guha-Sapir D (2011): Impacts of flood on health. epidemiologic evidence from Hanoi, Vietnam. Global Health Action, 4, 6356. doi. 10.3402/gha.v4i0.6356
  • Knight D and Samuels P (2007). Examples of Recent Floods in Europe. J Disaster Res, 2, 190-199.
  • Doswell III CA., Ramis C, Romero R and Alonso S (1998). A diagnostic study of three heavy precipitation episodes in the western Mediterranean region. Wea Forecasting, 13, 102-124.
  • Mastrangelo D, Horvath K, Riccio A and Miglietta MM (2011). Mechanisms for convection development in a long-lasting heavy precipitation event over southeastern Italy. Atmos Res, 100, 586-602.
  • Vinet F (2008): Geographical analysis of damage due to flash floods in southern France. The cases of 12–13 November 1999 and 8–9 September 2002. Appl Geography 28.323-336.
  • Gurer I and Ozguler H (2004). Recent Flood Disasters in Northwestern Black Sea Region, Integrated Flood Management Case Study. WMO Global Water Partnership, Technical Support Unit.
  • Kılıçer Ü and Özgüler H (2002) Floods in Turkey, (in Turkish). TMH- Türkiye Müh Haberleri, 420, 4-6.
  • Schipper J and Erturk AG (2009) Flash Flood in İstanbul, 9 September 2009.
  • Kömüşçü AÜ, Çelik S and Ceylan A (2011). Rainfall analysis of the flood event that occurred in Marmara Region on 8-12 September 2009 (in Turkish). Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 9, 209-220.
  • Çelik S, Görgeç H and Deniz A (2010) Meteorological analysis of 7-9 September 2009 flooding in North West Turkey (in Turkish), II. Ulusal Taskin Sempozyumu, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, March 2010.
  • Kömüşçü AÜ, Ceylan A, Akcakaya A and Erkan MA (2010) Meteorological analysis of 7-9 September 2009 flooding in İstanbul (in Turkish). II. Ulusal Taskin Sempozyumu, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, March 2010.
  • Chessa PA, Ficca G, Marrocu M and Buizza R (2004). Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region. Wea Forecasting, 19, 566-581.
  • Toros H, Geertsema G and Cats G (2010) Evaluation of Hirlam and Harmonie precipitation forecasts for the İstanbul flash flood event of September 2009. HIRLAM Newsletter 56, 37-46.
  • Undén P, Rontu L, Järvinen H, Lynch P, Calvo J, Cats G, Cuxart J and Coauthors (2002) HIRLAM-5 scientific documentation. HIRLAM-5 Project Tech. Rep., SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden, 146 pp.
  • Skamarock W, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker D, Duda MG, Huang X-Y and Wang W (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR. doi.10.5065/D68S4MVH.

İstanbul’da 8-9 Eylül 2009’da Meydana Gelen Aşırı Yağışın HARMONIE, HIRLAM ve WRF-ARW ile Simülasyonu

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 13, 1 - 12, 31.08.2018
https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.417535

Öz

Türkiye'nin kuzeybatısında farklı yerlere birkaç
saat içinde büyük miktarda yağış meydana gelmiştir. Sinoptik duruma
bakıldığında Akdeniz üzerinde bir kaç günlük tipik bir sonbahar konvektif durum
görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 8–9 Eylül 2009 tarihlerinde meydana gelen aşırı
yağışın üç farklı sayısal hava modeli (HARMONIE, Yüksek Çözünürlük Sınırlı Alan
Modeli (HIRLAM) ve WRF) kullanarak tahmin yeteneklerini değerllendirmektedir. Her
bir model yağış tahminleri bölgedeki 28 yağış gözlemleriyle
karşılaştırılmıştır. Sel felaketine sebep olan bu tehlikeli durumu farklı sayısal
hava tahmin modelleri ile derinlemesine incelemek önemlidir. Hidrometeorolojik
olay olan aşırı yağış ve ani selin tahmini özellikle çok kalabalık bölgelerde
çok zordur. Ani seller yağış süre ve miktarı, topografya yer yürüzü kullanımı
gibi çeşitli faktörlere bağlıdır. Tüm modeller İstanbul batısı baz alınarak
çalıştırılmıştır. Her üç modelde bölgede yoğun yağış tahmin etmektedir, ancak,
en yoğun yağış alanlarının yerleri onlarca kilometer uzaklıktadır. Modeller,
aşırı yağışların sinyallerini iyi tahmin etmektedir, ancak maksimumların
konumları, gözlenen yerlere göre farklıdır.

Kaynakça

  • EM-DAT (2012). Trends and Relationships Periods 1900–2008: Emergency Events Database. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
  • Bich TH, Quang LN, Ha LTT, Hanh TTD and Guha-Sapir D (2011): Impacts of flood on health. epidemiologic evidence from Hanoi, Vietnam. Global Health Action, 4, 6356. doi. 10.3402/gha.v4i0.6356
  • Knight D and Samuels P (2007). Examples of Recent Floods in Europe. J Disaster Res, 2, 190-199.
  • Doswell III CA., Ramis C, Romero R and Alonso S (1998). A diagnostic study of three heavy precipitation episodes in the western Mediterranean region. Wea Forecasting, 13, 102-124.
  • Mastrangelo D, Horvath K, Riccio A and Miglietta MM (2011). Mechanisms for convection development in a long-lasting heavy precipitation event over southeastern Italy. Atmos Res, 100, 586-602.
  • Vinet F (2008): Geographical analysis of damage due to flash floods in southern France. The cases of 12–13 November 1999 and 8–9 September 2002. Appl Geography 28.323-336.
  • Gurer I and Ozguler H (2004). Recent Flood Disasters in Northwestern Black Sea Region, Integrated Flood Management Case Study. WMO Global Water Partnership, Technical Support Unit.
  • Kılıçer Ü and Özgüler H (2002) Floods in Turkey, (in Turkish). TMH- Türkiye Müh Haberleri, 420, 4-6.
  • Schipper J and Erturk AG (2009) Flash Flood in İstanbul, 9 September 2009.
  • Kömüşçü AÜ, Çelik S and Ceylan A (2011). Rainfall analysis of the flood event that occurred in Marmara Region on 8-12 September 2009 (in Turkish). Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 9, 209-220.
  • Çelik S, Görgeç H and Deniz A (2010) Meteorological analysis of 7-9 September 2009 flooding in North West Turkey (in Turkish), II. Ulusal Taskin Sempozyumu, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, March 2010.
  • Kömüşçü AÜ, Ceylan A, Akcakaya A and Erkan MA (2010) Meteorological analysis of 7-9 September 2009 flooding in İstanbul (in Turkish). II. Ulusal Taskin Sempozyumu, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, March 2010.
  • Chessa PA, Ficca G, Marrocu M and Buizza R (2004). Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region. Wea Forecasting, 19, 566-581.
  • Toros H, Geertsema G and Cats G (2010) Evaluation of Hirlam and Harmonie precipitation forecasts for the İstanbul flash flood event of September 2009. HIRLAM Newsletter 56, 37-46.
  • Undén P, Rontu L, Järvinen H, Lynch P, Calvo J, Cats G, Cuxart J and Coauthors (2002) HIRLAM-5 scientific documentation. HIRLAM-5 Project Tech. Rep., SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden, 146 pp.
  • Skamarock W, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker D, Duda MG, Huang X-Y and Wang W (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR. doi.10.5065/D68S4MVH.
Toplam 16 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Hüseyin Toros

Abdullah Kahraman

Seyda Tilev-tanriover Bu kişi benim

Gertie Geertsema Bu kişi benim

Gerard Cats Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ağustos 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Sayı: 13

Kaynak Göster

APA Toros, H., Kahraman, A., Tilev-tanriover, S., Geertsema, G., vd. (2018). Simulating Heavy Precipitation with HARMONIE, HIRLAM and WRF-ARW: A Flash Flood Case Study in İstanbul, Turkey. Avrupa Bilim Ve Teknoloji Dergisi(13), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.417535

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Visualization of Flooding Using Adaptive Spatial Resolution
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I. Alihan Hadimlioglu
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8050204