Analysis of Unemployment Hysteresis by Gender in Turkey with Traditional and Fourier Tests

Year 2024, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 329 - 346, 29.02.2024

Murat Ergül

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1414454

Abstract

The expectation that rising unemployment rates after a structural shock will converge to natural unemployment rates has often not been met in the real economic world. In this study, the possible existence of the Unemployment Hysteresis Theory, which takes its place in the literature as a reaction to the Natural Rate Hypothesis, was tested for Türkiye. Possible hysterical properties of unemployment, that represents a unit root process, were tested with ADF, FADF, KFFADF unit root tests. The study used monthly data covering the 2014-2023 time period. In addition to the general unemployment, male unemployment and female unemployment data, the integrated rates of the potential laborforce were also included in the analysis by adding the data of individuals who are not looking for a job but are potentially able to work. As a result of the study, it is determined that there is a hysteresis effect on all variables used. Following the criticism that linear unit root tests were weak in detecting the hysteresis effect, tests were carried out with non-linear unit root tests and similar results were obtained.

Keywords

Unemployment, Hysteresis Effect, Fourier Unit Root Analysis

Türkiye’de Cinsiyete Göre İşsizlik Histerisinin Geleneksel ve Fourier Testlerle Analizi

Abstract

Yapısal bir şok sonrası artan işsizlik oranlarının yeniden doğal işsizlik oranlarına yakınsayacağı beklentisi reel iktisadi dünyada çoğu zaman karşılık bulamamıştır. Bu çalışmada Doğal Oran Hipotezine tepki olarak kendine literatürde yer edinen İşsizlik Histerisi Teorisi’nin Türkiye için olası varlığı test edilmiştir. Birim kök bir süreci ifade eden işsizliğin olası histerik özellikleri ADF, FADF, KFFADF birim kök testleri ile sınanmıştır. 2014-2023 zaman aralığını kapsayan aylık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışma, genel işsizlik oranları, erkek işsizlik oranları, kadın işsizlik oranları verilerinin yanında, iş aramayan ancak potansiyel olarak çalışabilecek durumda olan bireylerin de verilerini ekleyerek potansiyel işgücünün bütünleşik oranları da analize dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda kullanılan bütün değişkenler üzerinde histeri etkisinin varlığı tespit edilmektedir. Doğrusal birim kök testlerinin histeri etkisinin tespitinde zayıf kaldığı eleştirisi üzerine doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ile de sınamalar yapılmış ve benzer sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

İşsizlik, Histeri Etkisi, Fourier Birim Kök Analizi

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