Ekonomik Büyüme ve Sanayileşmenin Ekolojik Ayak İzine Etkileri: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi

Year 2024, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 87 - 104, 30.04.2024

Onur Yağış

https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1418130

Abstract

Türkiye’de Cumhuriyet’in kuruluşunun ilk yıllarından itibaren sanayileşme adımları devlet desteğiyle birlikte başlamıştır. Ardından meydana gelen İkinci Dünya Savaşı, ekonomi ve sanayi sektörünün olumsuz etkilenmesine neden olmuştur. 1980’den sonra küreselleşmenin hız kazanmasıyla birlikte Türkiye ekonomisi ticari serbestleşme sürecine giriş yapmıştır. Bu yeni ekonomik anlayış globalleşmenin de etkisiyle kentleşme ve sanayileşmeyi beraberinde getirmiştir. Kentleşme ve sanayileşmenin başlamasıyla çevresel tahribat artmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme, sanayileşme ve kentleşmenin Ekolojik Ayak İzi (GFN) üzerindeki etkilerini 1968-2022 dönemi için Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik analizi ile araştırmaktır. Araştırmada bu nedenle birim kök testi, uygun gecikme uzunluğu, eş bütünleşme ve söz konusu nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Yapılan nedensellik testi bulgularına göre; incelenen dönemde Türkiye’de, ekonomik büyüme ve sanayileşme ile GFN arasında, kentleşmede ve ekonomik büyüme arasında, ekonomik büyüme ve sanayileşme arasında, kentleşme ve GFN arasında, sanayileşme ve kentleşme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Bu bağlamda sanayileşmede çevre dostu üretim uygulamaları desteklenmelidir. Türkiye’de ayrıca büyük şehirlerde çarpık kentleşme problemine çözüm sağlayacak uygulamalar yapılmalıdır.

Keywords

Ekonomik büyüme, sanayileşme, kentleşme, ekolojik ayak izi, asimetrik nedensellik analizi

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışmada etik ilke ve standartlara uyulduğu beyan edilmiştir.

Supporting Institution

Yazar bu çalışma için herhangi bir finansal destek almadığını beyan etmiştir.

Effects of Economic Growth and Industrialization on Ecological Footprint: Asymmetric Causation Analysis

Abstract

Industrialization in Türkiye began with state support shortly after the establishment of the Republic. The subsequent Second World War had a detrimental effect on both the economy and industrial sector. After 1980, the Turkish economy began to undergo trade liberalization due to the increased pace of globalization. Globalization has led to the emergence of urbanization and industrialization, resulting in a new economic understanding. With the onset of urbanization and industrialization, environmental destruction has increased. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization on the ecological footprint in Türkiye with Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality analysis for the period 1968–2022. For this reason, a unit root test, appropriate lag length, cointegration, and causality test were performed in the research. Based on the findings of the causality test, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and industrialization, economic growth and ecological footprint, urbanization and economic growth, urbanization and ecological footprint, and industrialization and urbanization in Türkiye during the analyzed period. In this context, environmentally friendly production practices should be supported in industrialization. In Türkiye, practices should also be implemented to provide solutions to the problem of unplanned urbanization in big cities.

Keywords

Economic growth, industrialization, urbanization, ecological footprint, asymmetric causality analysis

Ethical Statement

The author declares that this article complies with ethical standards and rules.

Supporting Institution

No financial support was received from any person or institution for the study.

References

• Akıllı, H., Kemahlı, F., Okudan, K., & Polat, F. (2008). Ekolojik Ayak İzinin kavramsal içeriği ve Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesinde bireysel GFN hesaplaması. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 8(15), 1-25. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/auiibfd/issue/32317/359129
• Alkın, H., Işık, S. & Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Türkiye’de Taylor Kuralının asimetrik nedensellik testi. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 35, 211–225. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.463288
• Al-Mulali, U., & Öztürk, I. (2015). The effect of energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, industrial output, and the political stability on the environmental degradation in the MENA (Middle East and North African) Region. Energy, 84, 382– 389. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.03.004
• Al-Mulali, U., Weng-Wai, C., Sheau-Ting, L., & Mohammed, A. H. (2015). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis by utilizing the ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation. Ecological Indicators, 48, 315–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.08.029
• Apaydın, Ş. (2020). Küreselleşmenin Ekolojik Ayak İzi üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 23–42. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.695836
• Aşıcı, A. A., & Acar, S. (2016). Does income growth relocate ecological footprint? Ecological Indicators, 61, 707–714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.10.022
• Bagchi, A. K. (1987). Industrialization. In M. Vernengo, E. P. Caldentey & J. R. Jr Barkley (Ed.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1152-1
• Bagliani, M., Bravo, G., & Dalmazzone, S. (2008). A consumption-based Approach to Environmental Kuznets Curves using the ecological footprint indicator. Ecological Economics, 65(3), 650–661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.01.010
• BP. (2022). Statistical review of world energy. Retrieved November 21, 2023, from http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview
• Calhoun, C. (2002). Dictionary of the social sciences. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acref/9780195123715.001.0001
• Caviglia-Harris, J. L., Chambers, D., & Kahn, J. R. (2009). Taking the “U” out of Kuznets: a comprehensive analysis of the ekc and environmental degradation. Ecological Economics, 68(4), 1149–1159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.08.006
• Charfeddine, L., & Mrabet, Z. (2017). The impact of economic development and socialpolitical factors on ecological footprint: A panel data analysis for 15 MENA countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 138–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.031
• Destek, M. A., Ulucak, R., & Dogan, E. (2018). Analyzing the environmental Kuznets curve for the EU countries: The role of ecological footprint. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(29), 29387–29396. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2911-4
• Doğan, E., Taşpınar, N., & Gökmenoğlu, K. K. (2019). Determinants of ecological footprint in MINT countries. Energy & Environment, 30(6), 1065–1086. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X19834279
• Duman, E. (2023). Seçilmiş ekonomik değişkenlerin Ekolojik Ayak İzine etkisinin analizi: BRICS-T ülkeleri örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 31(58), 277–288. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.04.14
• Global Footprint Network. [GFN]. (2023). Country trends. Retrieved November 21, 2023, from https://data.footprintnetwork.org/#/countryTrends?type=BCpc,EFCpc&cn=223
• Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relationships by econometric models and cross spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
• Grossman G. M., & Krueger A. B. (1991). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement (Working Paper, No. 3914). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995).Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–377.
• Gouldson, A., & Murphy, J. (1997). Ecological modernisation: restructuring industrial economies. Political Quarterly, 68(B), 74–86. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.00117
• Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489–1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
• Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447–456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
• Holtz-Eakin, D., & Selden, T. M. (1995). Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 57(1), 85–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(94)01449-X
• International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. [IBRD]. (1992). World development report 1992: Development and the environment. World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/995041468323374213/World-development-report-1992-development-and-the-environment
• Jenks, M., Burton, E., & Williams, K. (1996). The compact city: A sustainable urban form? Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203362372
• Jorgenson, A. K., & Burns, T. J. (2007) The political-economic causes of change in the ecological footprints of nations, 1991–2001: a quantitative investigation, Social Science Research, 36(2), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2006.06.003
• Kaika, D., & Zervas, E. (2013). The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory—Part A: Concept, causes and the CO2 emissions case. Energy Policy, 62, 1392–1402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.131
• Kamacı, A. (2024). Küreselleşme, hidroelektrik enerji, ekonomik büyüme, CO2 emisyonları ve Ekolojik Ayak İzi ilişkisinin ABD için analizi: Kesirli Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme yöntemi. Sosyoekonomi, 32(59), 249–267. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.01.11
• Karasoy, A. (2021). Küreselleşme, sanayileşme ve kentleşmenin Türkiye’nin Ekolojik Ayak İzine etkisinin genişletilmiş ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmesi. Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(1), 208–231. https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.929092
• Kılınç, E. C. (2021). Ekolojik ayak izi-enerji Ar-Ge harcamaları ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri örneği. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(2) , 527–541. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.723064
• Levinson, M. (2017, February 06). What is manufacturing? Why does the definition matter? (CRS Report, R44755). Congressional Research Service. https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2017/02/08/r44755.pdf
• Lu, W.-C., & Wang, K.-H. (2024). Effects of economic globalization, environment-related technology innovation, and industrial structure change on the ecological footprint of top 10 Asian technological innovation countries. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-024-00899-0
• Majeed, M. T., & Mazhar, M. (2019). Financial development and ecological footprint: A global panel data analysis. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 13(2), 487–514. https://jespk.net/paper.php?paperid=4347
• Mert, M., & Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss uygulamalı zaman serileri analizi. Detay Yayıncılık.
• Monfreda, C., Wackernage, M. L., & Deumling, D. (2004). Establishing national natural capital accounts based on detailed ecological footprint and biological capacity assessments. Land Use Policy, 21(3), 231–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2003.10.009
• Mrabet, Z., & Alsamara, M. (2017). Testing the Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Qatar: A comparison between carbon dioxide and ecological footprint. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70, 1366–1375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.039
• Naudé, W., Szirmai, A., & Lavopa, A. (2013). Industrialization lessons from BRICS: A comparative analysis. (Discussion Papers, No. 7543). IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
• Özbek, S. (2023). Ekonomik büyüme, küreselleşme ve Ekolojik Ayak İzi ilişkisi: ASEAN-5 ülkeleri üzerine ekonometrik bir analiz. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 14(37), 123–138. https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.1144317
• Öztürk, I., Al-Mulali, U., & Saboori, B. (2016). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of tourism and ecological footprint. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23(2), 1916–1928. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-015-5447x
• Panayotou, T. (1993, January). Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development (Working papers, No. WEP2-22/WP.238). International Labour Organization. https://webapps.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/1993/93B09_31_engl.pdf
• Petek, A, & Şanlı, O. (2018). Makro ekonomik değişkenler açısından Türkiye’de sanayi sektörünün gelişimi ve imalat sanayinin teknolojik yapısı. Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(3), 185–203. https://doi.org/10.30803/adusobed.437391
• Poumanyvong, P., & Kaneko, S. (2010). Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecological Economics, 70(2), 434–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.029
• Rudolph, A., & Figge, L. (2017). Determinants of ecological footprints: what is the role of globalization? Ecological Indicators, 81, 348–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.04.060
• Samreen, I., & Majeed, M. T. (2022). Economic development, social–political factors and ecological footprint: A global panel data analysis. SN Business & Economics, 2(132). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-022-00320-4
• Sadorsky, P. (2013). Do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries? Energy Economics, 37, 52–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.01.009
• Selden, T. M. & Song, D. (1994). Environmental quality and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27(2), 147–162. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1994.1031
• Shafik, N., & Bandyopadhyay, S. (1992). Economic growth and environmental quality: Time-series and cross-country evidence (Working Paper, No. WPS904). World Bank Publications. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/833431468739515725/pdf/multi-page.pdf
• Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
• Türk Dil Kurumu. (2020). Türk dil kurumu sözlükleri. 21 Kasım 2023’de erişim adresi https://sozluk.gov.tr
• Ulucak, R., & Bilgili, F. (2018). A reinvestigation of EKC model by ecological footprint measurement for high, middle and low income countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 188, 144–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.191
• Varkey, A. M. (1984). Industrialisation and environmental problems. Cochin University Law Review, 8, 83–93, http://dspace.cusat.ac.in/jspui/handle/123456789/10981
• Wang, Y., Kang, L., Wu, X., & Xiao, Y. (2013). Estimating the environmental Kuznets curve for ecological footprint at the global level: A spatial econometric approach. Ecological Indicators, 34, 15–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.03.021
• World Bank (2023). World development indicators. Retrieved November 21, 2023, from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators