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İKLİMSEL GÖÇÜN KÜRESEL ÖLÇEKTE MEKÂNSAL GÖRÜNÜMÜ

Year 2023, Volume: 22 Issue: 48 - İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Aralık/Güz 2023, Cilt 22, Sayı 48, 981 - 1004, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.46928/iticusbe.1340951

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, günümüz ve geleceğin en önemli insani krizlerinden biri olması öngörülen iklimsel afet ve göçün küresel ölçekteki mekânsal dağılış örüntüsünü ortaya koyarak iklimsel göçün kapsamlı ve bütünlüklü bir fotoğrafını göstermeyi hedeflemektedir. Güncel olan bu önemli meseleye akademinin dikkatinin çekilmesi de diğer bir amaçtır.

Yöntem: Çalışmada nicel verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Küresel ölçekte doğal afet ve göç verisi tutan Uluslararası Afet Veri Tabanı (ing. International Disaster Database, EM-DAT) ve Ülke İçi Göç İzleme Merkezi (ing. Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, IDMC)’nden iklim ve hava ile ilişkili olan afetlerin verileri kullanılarak Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS)’nde görsel hale getirilmiştir. Daha sonra görselleştirilen bu iklimsel afet ve göçlerin zamansal ve mekânsal dağılış bilgisi betimsel analiz tekniği ile irdelenmiştir.

Bulgular: İklim değişikliği etkilerinin belirginleşmesiyle birlikte iklimsel afet ve göç olaylarının sayısında, şiddetinde ve sıklığında anlamlı artışlar ortaya çıkmıştır. Başta sel/taşkın, fırtına (özellikle büyük tropikal siklonlar) ve kuraklık olmak üzere iklim ve hava ile ilişkili (orman yangınları, çölleşme, sıcak ve soğuk hava dalgaları vb.) diğer tüm iklimsel afetlere bağlı olarak küresel ölçekte önemli göç hareketleri yaşanmıştır. Ortaya çıkan bu göçlerin çok büyük bir bölümü ise Güneydoğu Asya (özellikle okyanusa kıyısı olan bölgeler), Orta Afrika (özellikle Sahraaltı Afrika Bölgesi) ve Amerika (ABD ve Brezilya dahil olmak üzere bu iki ülke arasında kalan bölge)’da yoğunlaşmaktadır. İnsani yaşam gösterge farklarının ve iklim değişikliği etkilerinin ülkeler/bölgeler ölçeğinde gittikçe daha da belirginleştiği günümüz ve geleceğin dünyasında “iklimsel göç” meselesinin de önemli bir yer tutacağı beklenmektedir.

Özgünlük: Siyasi (çatışma ve şiddet), ekonomik ve sosyal nedenlere bağlı olarak yaşanan göç hareketleri ulusal ve uluslararası literatürde yoğun bir şekilde konu olmasına rağmen, çağımızın en önemli sorunu olan küresel iklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu göçler konusu derli toplu bir biçimde yeterince çalışılmamıştır. Dolayısıyla çalışmanın, bu anlamda öncü olması ve konuyu makro ölçekte ele alması nedeniyle literatüre önemli ölçüde katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Supporting Institution

Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinasyon Birimi

Project Number

SDK-2022-9829

Thanks

Yok

References

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  • Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M., & Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25335
  • Hoffmann, R., Dimitrova, A., Muttarak, R., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Peisker, J. (2020). A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration. Nature Climate Change, 10(10), 904-912. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6
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  • IOM (2019). Climate change and migration in vulnerable countries: a snapshot of least developed countries, landlocked developing countries and small island developing states. Geneva: International Organization for Migration (IOM). https://publications.iom.int/books/climate-change-and-migration-vulnerable-countries
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  • IPCC (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. a special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
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  • Kam, P. M., Aznar-Siguan, G., Schewe, J., Milano, L., Ginnetti, J., Willner, S., ... & Bresch, D. N. (2021). Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), 044026. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/abd26c
  • Krishnamurthy, P. K., Lewis, K., & Choularton, R. J. (2014). A methodological framework for rapidly assessing the impacts of climate risk on national-level food security through a vulnerability index. Global Environmental Change, 25, 121-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.004
  • Laczko, F., & Aghazarm, C. (Eds.). (2009). Migration, environment and climate change: assessing the evidence. Geneva: International Organization for Migration Pub.
  • McAdam, J. (2011). Climate change displacement and ınternational law: complementary protection standards (Legal and Protection Policy Research Series). Geneva, Switzerland: Division of International Protection United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
  • McAdam, J. (Ed.). (2010). Climate change and displacement: multidisciplinary perspectives. Oxford and Portland, Oregon: Bloomsbury Publishing.
  • McAuliffe, M., & Triandafyllidou, A. (Eds.). (2021). World migration report 2022. Geneva: International Organization for Migration Pub.
  • McGranahan, G., Balk, D., & Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and urbanization, 19(1), 17-37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247807076960
  • McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9000-7
  • Milán-García, J., Caparrós-Martínez, J. L., Rueda-López, N., & de Pablo Valenciano, J. (2021). Climate change-induced migration: a bibliometric review. Globalization and Health, 17(1), 74. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-021-00722-3
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A GLOBAL SPATIAL OUTLOOK OF CLIMATE-INDUCED MIGRATION

Year 2023, Volume: 22 Issue: 48 - İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Aralık/Güz 2023, Cilt 22, Sayı 48, 981 - 1004, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.46928/iticusbe.1340951

Abstract

Purpose: This study was conducted to draw a comprehensive and holistic picture of climatic migration by revealing the global spatial distribution pattern of climatic disaster and migration, which is predicted to be one of the most important humanitarian crises of today and the future. Another aim is to draw the attention of the academy to this important current issue.

Method: Quantitative data were used in the study. Using data on disasters related to climate and weather from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), which keep natural disaster and migration data on a global scale. It has been visualized in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The temporal and spatial distribution information of these climatic disasters and migrations, which were visualized later, was examined with the descriptive analysis technique.

Findings: Significant increases have emerged in the number, severity and frequency of climatic disasters and migration events as the effects of climate change become evident. There have been significant migration movements on a global scale due to all other climatic disasters related to climate and weather (forest fires, desertification, heat and cold air waves, etc.), especially floods, storms (especially large tropical cyclones) and drought. The vast majority of these migrations are concentrated in Southeast Asia (especially the regions with a coast to the ocean), Central Africa (especially the Sub-Saharan Africa Region) and America (the region between these two countries, including the USA and Brazil). It is expected that the issue of “climatic migration” will have an important place in today's and future world, where the differences in human life indicators and the effects of climate change are becoming more and more evident at the scale of countries/regions.

Originality: Although migration movements due to political (conflict and violence), economic and social factors have been extensively discussed in national and international literature, the issue of migrations caused by global climate change, which is the most important problem of our age, has not been adequately studied. Therefore, it is thought that the study will contribute significantly to the literature, as it is a pioneer in this sense and deals with the subject at a macro scale.

Project Number

SDK-2022-9829

References

  • Alessandrini, A., Ghio, D., & Migali, S. (2021). Population dynamics, climate change and variability in Western Africa: the case of Sahel regions Report. (UR 30572 EN), Luxembourg: European Union, doi:10.2760/797541, JRC123151
  • Beine, M., & Parsons, C. (2017). Climatic factors as determinants of international migration: Redux. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 386-402. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifx017
  • Bergmann, J., Vinke, K., Fernandez Palomino, C. A., Gornott, C., Gleixner, S., Laudien, R., ... & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2021). Assessing the evidence: Climate change and migration in Peru. Potsdam: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
  • Berlemann, M., & Steinhardt, M. F., (2017) Climate change, natural disasters, and migration: a survey of the empirical evidence. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 353-385. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifx019
  • Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. (2011). The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change, 21, 3-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001
  • Brown, O. (2008). Migration and climate change (IOM Migration Research Series No 31). Geneva: International Organization for Migration. http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/free/MRS-31_EN.pdf
  • Castles, S., de Haas, H., & Miller, M. J. (2014). The age of migration: International population movements in the modern world (fifth edition). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmıllan.
  • CRED (2023). 2022 Disasters in numbers. Brussels. This document is available at: https://cred.be/sites/default/files/2022_EMDAT_report.pdf EM-DAT (2022). The international disaster database. Data https://public.emdat.be/ (verinin alındığı tarih: 23.03.2022).
  • Flavell, A., Milan, A., & Melde, S. (2019). Migration, environment and climate change: Literature review (First report in the “Migration, environment and climate change” series). Berlin: Umweltbendesamt.
  • Gemenne, F. (2011). Why the numbers don’t add up: a review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes. Global Environmental Change, 21, 41-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.005
  • Gemenne, F. (2015). İklime uyum stratejisi olarak göç. (Çev. G. Hotinli), Lisa Mastny (Ed.), Dünyanın durumu 2015: sürdürülebilirliğin önündeki gizli tehditlerle yüzleşmek içinde (ss. 159-171). İstanbul: Türkiye iş bankası kültür yayınları.
  • Gleick, P. H. (2014). Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate and Society, 6(3), 331-340. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1
  • Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., ... & Toulmin, C. (2010). Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327(5967), 812-818. DOI: 10.1126/science.1185383
  • Grecequet, M., DeWaard, J., Hellmann, J. J., & Abel, G. J. (2017). Climate vulnerability and human migration in global perspective. Sustainability, 9(5), 720. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9050720
  • Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M., & Rozenberg, J. (2017). Unbreakable: building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25335
  • Hoffmann, R., Dimitrova, A., Muttarak, R., Crespo Cuaresma, J., & Peisker, J. (2020). A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration. Nature Climate Change, 10(10), 904-912. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6
  • Hoffmann, R., Šedová, B., & Vinke, K. (2021). Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature. Global Environmental Change, 71, 102367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102367
  • IDMC (2020). Global Internal displacement database. Data: https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data (verinin alındığı tarih: 23.03.2022).
  • IDMC (2022). GRID 2022: Children and youth in internal displacement. Geneva, Switzerland: The Internal Displacement Monitoring Cente Publication.
  • IDMC (2023). Internal displacement and food security. Geneva, Switzerland: The Internal Displacement Monitoring Cente Publication.
  • IOM (2019). Climate change and migration in vulnerable countries: a snapshot of least developed countries, landlocked developing countries and small island developing states. Geneva: International Organization for Migration (IOM). https://publications.iom.int/books/climate-change-and-migration-vulnerable-countries
  • IPCC (1992). Climate change: the 1990 and 1992 IPCC assessments. World Meteorological Organization/UNEP and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: synthesis report. contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment. Geneva, Switzerland: Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • IPCC (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. a special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
  • IPCC (2014). Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. part a: global and sectoral aspects. contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press.
  • IPCC (2019). Climate change and land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
  • IPCC (2021). Summary for policymakers. In Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (pp. 3-32). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
  • IPCC (2022). Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. contribution of working group II to the sixth assessment. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kam, P. M., Aznar-Siguan, G., Schewe, J., Milano, L., Ginnetti, J., Willner, S., ... & Bresch, D. N. (2021). Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), 044026. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/abd26c
  • Krishnamurthy, P. K., Lewis, K., & Choularton, R. J. (2014). A methodological framework for rapidly assessing the impacts of climate risk on national-level food security through a vulnerability index. Global Environmental Change, 25, 121-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.004
  • Laczko, F., & Aghazarm, C. (Eds.). (2009). Migration, environment and climate change: assessing the evidence. Geneva: International Organization for Migration Pub.
  • McAdam, J. (2011). Climate change displacement and ınternational law: complementary protection standards (Legal and Protection Policy Research Series). Geneva, Switzerland: Division of International Protection United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
  • McAdam, J. (Ed.). (2010). Climate change and displacement: multidisciplinary perspectives. Oxford and Portland, Oregon: Bloomsbury Publishing.
  • McAuliffe, M., & Triandafyllidou, A. (Eds.). (2021). World migration report 2022. Geneva: International Organization for Migration Pub.
  • McGranahan, G., Balk, D., & Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and urbanization, 19(1), 17-37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247807076960
  • McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9000-7
  • Milán-García, J., Caparrós-Martínez, J. L., Rueda-López, N., & de Pablo Valenciano, J. (2021). Climate change-induced migration: a bibliometric review. Globalization and Health, 17(1), 74. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-021-00722-3
  • Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical transactions of the royal society of London. Series B, 357(1420), 609-613. http://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2001.0953
  • Nawrotzki, R. J., Hunter, L. M., Runfola, D. M., & Riosmena, F. (2015). Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico. Environmental Research Letters, 10(11), 114023. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114023
  • Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., & Nicholls, R. J. (2015). Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding-a global assessment. PloS One, 10(3), e0118571. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131375
  • Piguet, E. (2010). Linking climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a methodological overview. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews: Climate Change, 1(4), 517-524. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.54
  • Podesta, J., & Ogden, P. (2008) The security ımplications of climate change. Washington quarterly, 31(1), 115-138. https://doi.org/10.1162/wash.2007.31.1.115
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There are 56 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Labour, Migration and Development, Climate and Water Policies
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mehmet Kadri Tekin 0000-0002-0667-6648

Orhan Deniz 0000-0001-8882-1855

Project Number SDK-2022-9829
Publication Date December 30, 2023
Submission Date August 10, 2023
Acceptance Date December 17, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 22 Issue: 48 - İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Aralık/Güz 2023, Cilt 22, Sayı 48

Cite

APA Tekin, M. K., & Deniz, O. (2023). İKLİMSEL GÖÇÜN KÜRESEL ÖLÇEKTE MEKÂNSAL GÖRÜNÜMÜ. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(48), 981-1004. https://doi.org/10.46928/iticusbe.1340951