Research Article
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Radon, Toplam Elektron İçeriği ve Meteorolojik Değişkenlerin Depremlere Bağlı Doğrusal ve Doğrusal Olmayan Değişimlerinin İncelenmesi: ARIMA ve Monte Carlo Modellemesi

Year 2024, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 73 - 86, 28.03.2024

Marjan Mohammed Ghafar Hemn Salh Fatih Külahcı

https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1238962

Abstract

Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu (Türkiye) boyunca meydana gelen bir depremin atmosferik ve yer gazlarındaki anormallikleri analiz etmek ve modellemek için Entegre Otoregresif Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) - Monte Carlo Simülasyonu (MCS) önerilmiştir. Depremler, Toprak radon gazı ve Toplam Elektron İçeriği (TEC) eşzamanlı anormallikler gösterdi. Bu üç parametre arasında pozitif ilişkiler vardır. Ayrıca Rn, meteoroloji ve atmosfer arasında da pozitif ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Ölçülen verilerin Rn-TEC-Deprem ilişkileri için önerilen ARIMA modeli ve MCS istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar vermiştir. Bu model ve simülasyon, tespit edilmesi büyük depremlere göre daha zor olan mikrodepremlerin, özellikle iyonosferik TEC üzerindeki etkilerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değişiklikler olduğunu gösterdi.

Keywords

Toplam Elektron İçeriği Deprem öncüleri ARIMA Monte Carlo simülasyonu

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Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling

Year 2024, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 73 - 86, 28.03.2024

Marjan Mohammed Ghafar Hemn Salh Fatih Külahcı

https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1238962

Abstract

An Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) - Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is proposed to analyze and model the anomalies of atmospheric and ground gases by an earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Türkiye). Earthquakes, Soil radon gas and Total Electron Content (TEC) showed simultaneous anomalies. There are positive relationships between these three parameters. Also, positive relations between Rn, meteorology, and atmosphere are detected. The proposed ARIMA model and MCS for the Rn-TEC-Earthquake relationships of the measured data gave statistically significant results. This model and simulation showed statistically significant changes in the effects of microearthquakes, which are more difficult to detect than large earthquakes, especially on the ionospheric TEC.

Keywords

Total Electron Content Earthquake precursors ARIMA Monte Carlo Simulation

Supporting Institution

Firat University

Thanks

Firat University

References

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  • Kulali F, Akkurt I, Özgür N. The effect of meteorological parameters on radon concentration in soil gas. Acta Phys Pol A. 132, 999-1001 (2017). https://doi.org/10.12693/APhysPolA.132.999
  • Fuente M, Rábago D, Goggins J, Fuente I, Sainz C, Foley M. Radon mitigation by soil depressurisation case study: Radon concentration and pressure field extension monitoring in a pilot house in Spain. Science of the Total Environment. 695, (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133746
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  • Mahmood I, M.F. Shahzad MI, Qaiser S. Investigation of atmospheric anomalies associated with Kashmir and Awaran Earthquakes. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys. 154, 75-85 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2016.12.018
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  • Akyol AA, Arikan O, Arikan F. A Machine Learning-Based Detection of Earthquake Precursors Using Ionospheric Data. Radio Sci. 55, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RS006931
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  • Hosoda M, Tokonami S, Suzuki T, Janik M. Machine learning as a tool for analysing the impact of environmental parameters on the radon exhalation rate from soil. Radiat Meas. 138, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RADMEAS.2020.106402
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  • Birchard GF. Libby W.F.: Soil radon concentration changes preceding and following four magnitude 4.2–4.7 earthquakes on the San Jacinto Fault in southern California. J Geophys Res Solid Earth. 85, 3100-3106 (1980)
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  • Kuo T, Su C, Chang C, Lin C, Cheng W, Liang H, Lewis C, Chiang C. Application of recurrent radon precursors for forecasting large earthquake near Antung, Taiwan. Radiat Meas. 45, 1049-1054 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.radmeas.2010.08.009
  • Singh M, Kumar M, Jain R, Chatrath R. Radon in ground water related to seismic events. (2019)
  • Virk, Walia HS. Helium/radon precursory signals of Chamoli Earthquake, India. Radiat Meas. 34, 379-384 (2001). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S1350-4487(01)00190-1
  • Viñas R, Darwich A, Soler V, Martín-Luis MC, Quesada ML, de la Nuez J. Processing of radon time series in underground environments: Implications for volcanic surveillance in the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain. Radiat Meas. 42, 101-115 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.radmeas.2006.07.002
  • Külahci F, Inceöz M, Doǧru M, Aksoy E, Baykara O. Artificial neural network model for earthquake prediction with radon monitoring. Applied Radiation and Isotopes. 67, 212-219 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APRADISO.2008.08.003
  • Inyurt S, Peker S, Mekik C. Monitoring potential ionospheric changes caused by the Van earthquake (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub>7.2). Ann Geophys. 37, 143-151 (2019). https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-143-2019
  • Arikan F, Arikan O, Erol CB. Regularized estimation of TEC from GPS data for certain midlatitude stations and comparison with the IRI model. Advances in Space Research. 39, 867-874 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2007.01.082
  • Géodésique, des sciences naturelles. C. Mapping and predicting the Earth’s ionosphere using the Global Positioning System. (1999)
  • Langley, RB. Monitoring the Ionosphere and Neutral Atmosphere with GPS.
  • Inyurt S, Peker S, Mekik C. Monitoring potential ionospheric changes caused by the Van earthquake . Ann Geophys. 37, 143-151 (2019). https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-143-2019
  • Viti M, Mantovani E, Cenni N, Vannucchi A. Interaction of seismic sources in the Apennine belt. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C. 63, 25-35 (2013). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2013.03.005
  • Hammerstrom JA, Cornely PR. Total Electron Content (TEC) Variations and Correlation with Seismic Activity over Japan. (2016). https://doi.org/10.22186/JYI.31.4.13-16
  • Namgaladze AA, Zolotov OV, Karpov MI, Romanovskaya YV. Manifestations of the earthquake preparations in the ionosphere total electron content variations. Nat Sci (Irvine). 4, 848-855 (2012). https://doi.org/10.4236/NS.2012.411113
  • Li M, Parrot M. Statistical analysis of the ionospheric ion density recorded by DEMETER in the epicenter areas of earthquakes as well as in their magnetically conjugate point areas. Advances in Space Research. 61, 974-984 (2018). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.10.047
  • Liu J.Y., Chen C.H., Chen Y.I., Yang W.H., Oyama K.I., Kuo K.W. A statistical study of ionospheric earthquake precursors monitored by using equatorial ionization anomaly of GPS TEC in Taiwan during 2001–2007. J Asian Earth Sci. 39, 76-80 (2010). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2010.02.012
  • Li M, Parrot M. Statistical analysis of the ionospheric ion density recorded by DEMETER in the epicenter areas of earthquakes as well as in their magnetically conjugate point areas. Advances in Space Research. 61, 974-984 (2018). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.10.047
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There are 68 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Complex Physical Systems, Astronomical Sciences (Other)
Journal Section TJST
Authors

Marjan Mohammed Ghafar 0000-0002-1343-5594

Hemn Salh 0000-0002-2367-2980

Fatih Külahcı 0000-0001-6566-4308

Publication Date March 28, 2024
Submission Date January 18, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 19 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ghafar, M. M., Salh, H., & Külahcı, F. (2024). Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology, 19(1), 73-86. https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1238962
AMA Ghafar MM, Salh H, Külahcı F. Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling. TJST. March 2024;19(1):73-86. doi:10.55525/tjst.1238962
Chicago Ghafar, Marjan Mohammed, Hemn Salh, and Fatih Külahcı. “Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling”. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology 19, no. 1 (March 2024): 73-86. https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1238962.
EndNote Ghafar MM, Salh H, Külahcı F (March 1, 2024) Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology 19 1 73–86.
IEEE M. M. Ghafar, H. Salh, and F. Külahcı, “Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling”, TJST, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 73–86, 2024, doi: 10.55525/tjst.1238962.
ISNAD Ghafar, Marjan Mohammed et al. “Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling”. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology 19/1 (March 2024), 73-86. https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1238962.
JAMA Ghafar MM, Salh H, Külahcı F. Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling. TJST. 2024;19:73–86.
MLA Ghafar, Marjan Mohammed et al. “Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling”. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 19, no. 1, 2024, pp. 73-86, doi:10.55525/tjst.1238962.
Vancouver Ghafar MM, Salh H, Külahcı F. Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling. TJST. 2024;19(1):73-86.
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