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THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC, PRIVATE AND FOREIGN DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR COUNTRIES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 16, 523 - 537, 29.12.2017

Öz

The effects of debt on
macroeconomic variables especially the relationship between debt and economic
growth has been discussed in both theoretical and empirical literature for many
years. According to this debate, public debt has a positive effect on economic
growth via aggregate demand however it has a negative effect on economic growth
due to inflation and tax disruption. Also, it is emphasized that public debt
has a non-linear effect on economic growth. Foreign debt, on the other hand,
generally has a negative effect on economic growth. But private debt can have
different effect on economic growth. In this study, to shed light on the
ongoing debates; the relationships between economic growth and three debt
categories, namely public, foreign and private debt, were analyzed for EU (12)
countries covering the period of 2000-2015 via panel data analysis. According
to the empirical findings obtained, there is a positive relationship between
government debt and economic growth while a negative relationship between
private sector debt and external debt. Besides that, it is determined that
there is a non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth. In
this direction, policy makers should consider the type of debt, a source of
financing, and apply structural arrangements to control external debt and
private sector debt, taking into account the negative effects on economic
growth.  

Kaynakça

  • Afonso, A. ve Jalles, J. T. (2013). Growth and productivity: The role of government debt. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25, 384-407.
  • Barro, R. J. (1974), Are government bonds net wealth?. Journal of Political Economy, 82 (6), 1095-1117.
  • Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C. ve Rother, P. (2013). Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 809-821.
  • Calderón, C. ve Fuentes, J. R. (2013). Government debt and economic growth, IDB Workıng Paper Series No. IDB-WP-424.
  • Cecchetti, S. G. Mohanty, M. S. ve Zampolli, F. (2011). The real effects of debt, BIS Working Papers No 352.
  • Checherita-Westphal, C. ve Rother, P. (2012). The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: an empirical investigation for the euro area. European Economic Review, 56 (7), 1392-1405.
  • Cordella, T.; Ricci, L. A. ve Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2005). Debt overhang or debt irrelevance? revisiting the debt-growth link. IMF Working Paper WP/05/223.
  • Egert, B., (2015). The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact. Applied Economics, 47, 34-35.
  • Elmendorf, D. W. ve Mankiw, N. G. (1998). Government Debt. http://scholar. harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/govdebt.pdf, erişim: 07.07.2016.
  • Ferreira, C. (2016). Debt and economic growth in the european union: a panel granger causality approach. International Advances in Economic Research, 22 (2), 131-149.
  • Herndon, T.; Ash, M ve Pollin, R. (2013). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? a critique of reinhart and rogoff. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1, 1-23.
  • Kumar, M. S. ve Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth, imf working paper, WP/10/174.
  • Minea, A. ve Parent, A. (2012). Is high public debt always harmful to economic growth? reinhart and rogoff and some complex nonlinearities. CERDI, Etudes et Documents, E 2012.18.
  • Panizza, U. ve Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public debt and economic growth: is there a causal effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
  • Patillo, C., Poirson H. ve Ricci, L. (2011). External debt and growth. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2 (3), 1-30.
  • Reinhart, C. M. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2), 573-578.
  • Spilioti, S. (2015). The relationship between the government debt and gdp growth: Evidence of the euro area countries. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12 (1), 174-178.

AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİNDE KAMU VE ÖZEL SEKTÖR BORÇLANMASI VE DIŞ BORÇLANMANIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 16, 523 - 537, 29.12.2017

Öz

Borçlanmanın makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri, özellikle
borçlanma ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki uzun yıllardan beri gerek teorik
gerekse ampirik literatürde tartışılmaktadır. Buna göre, kamu borçlanması
toplam talebi uyararak ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilerken vergi bozulmalarına
ve enflasyona yol açarak negatif etkileyebilmektedir. Öte yandan, kamu sektörü
borçlanmasının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde doğrusal olmayan bir etkiye sahip
olduğu vurgulanmaktadır. Dış borçlanma ise çoğunlukla ekonomik büyümeyi negatif
olarak etkilemektedir. Buna karşın, özel sektör borçlanması da ekonomik büyüme
üzerinde farklı etkiler yaratabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, süregelen tartışmalara
ışık tutmak adına; kamu borçlanması, dış borçlanma ve özel sektör borçlanmasının
ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri 2000-2015 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde AB
(12) ülkeleri için panel veri analiz yöntemi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Elde
edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, kamu borçlanması ile ekonomik büyüme arasında
pozitif yönlü, dış borçlanma ve özel sektör borçlanması ile ekonomik büyüme
arasında ise negatif yönlü bir ilişki söz konusudur. Bununla birlikte, kamu
sektörü borçlanması ile ekonomik büyüme arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişkinin
varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda politika uygulayıcıları, bir finansman
kaynağı olan borçlanmanın türünü dikkate almalı ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki
negatif etkileri dikkate alınarak dış borç ve özel kesim borçlarını kontrol
altına almaya yönelik yapısal düzenlemelere başvurmalıdırlar. 

Kaynakça

  • Afonso, A. ve Jalles, J. T. (2013). Growth and productivity: The role of government debt. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25, 384-407.
  • Barro, R. J. (1974), Are government bonds net wealth?. Journal of Political Economy, 82 (6), 1095-1117.
  • Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C. ve Rother, P. (2013). Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 809-821.
  • Calderón, C. ve Fuentes, J. R. (2013). Government debt and economic growth, IDB Workıng Paper Series No. IDB-WP-424.
  • Cecchetti, S. G. Mohanty, M. S. ve Zampolli, F. (2011). The real effects of debt, BIS Working Papers No 352.
  • Checherita-Westphal, C. ve Rother, P. (2012). The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: an empirical investigation for the euro area. European Economic Review, 56 (7), 1392-1405.
  • Cordella, T.; Ricci, L. A. ve Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2005). Debt overhang or debt irrelevance? revisiting the debt-growth link. IMF Working Paper WP/05/223.
  • Egert, B., (2015). The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact. Applied Economics, 47, 34-35.
  • Elmendorf, D. W. ve Mankiw, N. G. (1998). Government Debt. http://scholar. harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/govdebt.pdf, erişim: 07.07.2016.
  • Ferreira, C. (2016). Debt and economic growth in the european union: a panel granger causality approach. International Advances in Economic Research, 22 (2), 131-149.
  • Herndon, T.; Ash, M ve Pollin, R. (2013). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? a critique of reinhart and rogoff. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1, 1-23.
  • Kumar, M. S. ve Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth, imf working paper, WP/10/174.
  • Minea, A. ve Parent, A. (2012). Is high public debt always harmful to economic growth? reinhart and rogoff and some complex nonlinearities. CERDI, Etudes et Documents, E 2012.18.
  • Panizza, U. ve Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public debt and economic growth: is there a causal effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
  • Patillo, C., Poirson H. ve Ricci, L. (2011). External debt and growth. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2 (3), 1-30.
  • Reinhart, C. M. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2), 573-578.
  • Spilioti, S. (2015). The relationship between the government debt and gdp growth: Evidence of the euro area countries. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12 (1), 174-178.
Toplam 17 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Pınar Hayaloğlu 0000-0001-7181-8801

Seyfettin Artan 0000-0003-4310-550X

Selim Koray Demirel Bu kişi benim 0000-0003-3051-8700

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 16

Kaynak Göster

APA Hayaloğlu, P., Artan, S., & Demirel, S. K. (2017). AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİNDE KAMU VE ÖZEL SEKTÖR BORÇLANMASI VE DIŞ BORÇLANMANIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİLERİ. Hak İş Uluslararası Emek Ve Toplum Dergisi, 6(16), 523-537.