TÜRKİYE VE BİR GRUP ÜLKE İÇİN ÇATIŞMA VERİLERİNİN KUVVET YASASINA UYGUNLUĞU

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 61 - 80, 26.12.2018

Sadullah Çelik Ayşe Oğuzlar

Öz

Bugün birçok toplumsal sorun, bir bireye ya da gruba yönelik sürekli bir şiddeti içermektedir. Bu sorunlar; aile içi şiddet, kadına yönelik cinsel şiddet, sivil saldırılar, şiddetli çatışmalar, şiddetli protestolar, terör eylemleri ve ulusal güvenliğe yönelik siber saldırılar ile ticarete yönelik siber saldırılardır. Özellikle hükümetler ve politik yapıcılar bu şiddet olaylarının ölçülmesi sayesinde stratejiler geliştirerek birçok toplumsal olayın en düşük zarar ile sonuçlanmasını sağlamaktadır. Bugün, bu şiddet olaylarının şiddetini ölçmek için bir kuvvet yasası kullanılmaktadır. Genel olarak, kuvvet yasası bir olayın frekansının olayın artan boyutundan daha hızlı azaldığını tanımlar. Teknik olarak, bir "kuvvet yasası", birinin diğerinin gücü olarak değişen iki büyüklük arasındaki matematiksel ilişkiyi ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, kuvvet yasalarını ve diğer uzun kuyruk dağılımları basitleştiren R’nin “poweRlaw” paketi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, 2014-2017 yılları arasında GDELT’ten elde edilen çatışma verileri kullanılarak; Irak, Suriye, Türkiye, Filistin, Ukrayna, Afganistan, İsrail ve Rusya’daki çatışmaların kuvvet yasası dağılımına uygun olup olmadığı test edilmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda Türkiye ve Afganistan’daki çatışmaların kuvvet yasası dağılımına uygun olmadığı; Irak, Suriye, Filistin, Ukrayna, İsrail ve Rusya’daki çatışmaların kuvvet yasası dağılımına uygun olduğu bulunmuştur. Buradan

kuvvet yasası dağılımının ölçeğe göre değişmediği, yani farklı yerlerden elde

edilen verilerin aynı dağılım özelliklerine sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kuvvet Yasası Dağılımı, R, BigQuery, GDELT, Çatışma

SUITABILITY OF CONFLICT DATA FOR POWER LAW FOR TURKEY AND A GROUP OF COUNTRIES

Öz

Today, many social problems involve constant violence towards an

individual or a group. These problems are; domestic violence, sexual violence

against women, civil attacks, violent conflicts, violent protests, acts of

terrorism, and national security. In particular, governments and policy

makers have developed strategies through the measurement of these violent

events, resulting in the most harmful consequences of many social events.

Today, the power law distribution is used to measure the severity of these

violent incidents. In general, the power law defines that the frequency of an

event is decreasing faster than the increasing size of the event. Technically, a

"power law" refers to the mathematical relationship between two quantities

that change as the power of one's other. In this study, the "poweRlaw"

package of R, which simplifies power laws and other long tail distributions, is

used. Using the conflict data obtained from GDELT between 2014 and 2017,

Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Palestine, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Israel, and Russia are

tested whether their conflict data is suitable for power law. The results of the

analysis of the conflicts in Turkey and Afghanistan are not suitable for power

law distribution; the conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Ukraine, Israel and

Russia are found to be suitable for distribution of power law. It is concluded

that the distribution of power law does not depend on the scale, that is, the

data obtained from various places has the same distributional characteristics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Power Law Distribution, R, BigQuery, GDELT, Conflict

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