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Döviz Piyasalarında Etkinlik ve Beklentiler Kavramları Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 1 - 18, 23.07.2016

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz piyasalarında etkinlik ve beklentiler kavramlarına yönelik tanımlamaları gözden geçirmek ve elde edilen ampirik bulgular üzerine bir literatür taraması sunmaktır. Çalışmada, döviz piyasalarında etkinlik ölçütlerinden başlayarak beklentiler kavramı ele alınmış ve ilgili tanımlamalara ait ampirik bulguları ele alan literatür özellikle gelişmiş ülkeler bakımından incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda ele alınan hipotezler ampirik olarak birbirinden farklı birçok ekonometrik ve istatistiki yöntemler ile test edilebileceğinden, bu çalışmanın uluslararası iktisat ve uluslararası finans literatüründe ilgili konular ile ilgilenen araştırmacılara fayda sağlayabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Akram, Q. F., D. Rime ve L. Sarno (2008). Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope. Journal of International Economics, 76 (2), 237-253.
  • Akram, Q. F., D. Rime ve L. Sarno (2009). Does the Law of One Price Hold in International Financial Markets? Evidence from Tick Data. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33 (10), 1741-1754.
  • Alexander, C. (2009). Market Risk Analysis: Pricing, Hedging and Trading Financial Instrument. West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Aysun, U. ve S. Lee (2014). Can Time-varying Risk Premiums Explain the Excess Returns in the Interest Rate Parity Condition? Emerging Markets Review, 18, 78-100.
  • Baillie, R. T. ve D. Cho (2014). Time Variation in the Standard Forward Premium Regression: Some New Models and Tests. Journal of Empirical Finance, 29, 52-63.
  • Baillie, R. T., R. E. Lippens ve P. C. McMahon (1983). Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Exchange Market. Econometrica, 51 (3), 553-563.
  • Balke, N. S. ve M. E. Wohar (1998). Nonlinear Dynamics and Covered Interest Parity. Empirical Economics, 23 (4), 535-559.
  • Balvers, R. J. ve A. F. Klein (2014). Currency Risk Premia and Uncovered Interest Parity in the International CAPM. Journal of International Money and Finance, 41, 214-230.
  • Bekaert, G. (1996). The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective. Review of Financial Studies, 9 (2), 427-470.
  • Bekaert, G. ve R. J. Hodrick (1993). On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums. Journal of International Money and Finance, 12 (2), 115-138.
  • Bekaert, G. ve R. J. Hodrick (2001). Expectations Hypotheses Tests. Journal of Finance, 56 (4), 1357-1394.
  • Bekaert, G., E. Engstrom ve Y. Xing (2009). Risk, Uncertainty and Asset Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 91 (1), 59-82.
  • Bollerslev, T. ve R. J. Hodrick (1999). Financial Market Efficiency Test. (Handbook of Applied Econometrics: Macroeconomics içinde) Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 415-458.
  • Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum ve S. Rebelo (2011a). Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 3 (1), 511-535.
  • Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, I. Kleshchelski ve S. Rebelo (2011b). Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade? Review of Financial Studies, 24 (3), 853-891.
  • Campbell, J. Y. ve R. J. Shiller (1987). Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models. Journal of Political Economy, 95 (5), 1062-1088.
  • Chen, C. Y-H., I-D. Kuob ve T. C. Chiang (2014). What Explains Deviations in the Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis? Market Irrationality vs. the Peso Problem. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 30, 172-190.
  • Clarida, R. H. ve M. P. Taylor (1997). The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79 (3), 353-361.
  • Clarida, R. H., L. Sarno, M. P. Taylor ve G. Valente (2003). The Out-of-sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond. Journal of International Economics, 60 (1), 61-83.
  • Clinton, K. (1988). Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 96 (2), 358-370.
  • Cumby, R. E. ve M. Obstfeld (1981). A Note on Exchange-rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis. Journal of Finance, 36 (3), 697703.
  • Dueker, M. ve C. J. Neely (2007). Can Markov Switching Models Predict Excess Foreign Exchange Returns? Journal of Banking and Finance, 31 (2), 279-296.
  • Einzig, P. (1937). The Theory of Forward Exchange. Londra: Macmillan.
  • Engel, C. (2014). Exchange Rates and Interest Parity. Handbook of International Economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 453-522.
  • Engel, C. (2015). Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No: 21042.
  • Engel, C. ve J. D. Hamilton (1990). Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It. American Economic Review, 80 (4), 689-713.
  • Evans, G. W. (1986). A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84. American Economic Review, 76 (4), 621-636.
  • Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25 (2), 383-423.
  • Fama, E. F. (1984). Forward and Spot Exchange Rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14 (3), 319-338.
  • Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient Capital Markets II. Journal of Finance, 46 (5), 1575-1617.
  • Flood, R. P. ve R. J. Hodrick (1990). On Testing for Speculative Bubbles. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4 (2), 85-101.
  • Fong, W-M., G. Valente ve J. K. W. Fung (2010). Covered Interest Arbitrage Profits: The Role of Liquidity and Credit Risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34 (5), 1098-1107.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1988). Recent Estimates of Time-variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium. Journal of International Money and Finance, 7 (1), 115-125.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1990). Zen and the Art of Modern Macroeconomics: A Commentary. (Monetary Policy for a Volatile Global Economy içinde), Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 117-123.
  • Frankel, J. A. ve K. A. Froot (1987). Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations. American Economic Review, 77 (1), 133-153.
  • Frenkel, J. A. ve R. M. Levich (1975). Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits? Journal of Political Economy, 83 (2), 325-338.
  • Frenkel, J. A. ve R. M. Levich (1977). Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods. Journal of Political Economy, 85 (6), 1209-1226.
  • Froot, K. A. ve J. A. Frankel (1989). Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104 (1), 139-161.
  • Geweke, J. F. ve E. L. Feige (1979). Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange. Review of Economics and Statistics, 61 (3), 334-341.
  • Hakkio, C. S. (1981). Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate. International Economic Review, 22 (3), 663-678. Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large Sample Properties of Generalised Method of Moments Estimators. Econometrica, 50 (4), 1029-1054.
  • Hansen, L. P. ve R. J. Hodrick (1980). Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 88 (5), 829853.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46 (6), 12511271.
  • Henderson, C. (2006). Currency Strategy: the Practitioner’s Guide to Currency Investing, Hedging and Forecasting. West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Homaifar, G. (2004). Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk. New Jersey, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Huang, R. D. (1981). The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate in an Efficient Foreign Exchange Market: Tests Based on Volatility. Journal of Finance, 36 (1), 31-41.
  • Im, K. S. (1996). Least Square Approach to Non-Normal Disturbances. University of Cambridge Department of Applied Economics Working Paper, No. 9603.
  • Jongen, R., W. F. C. Verschoor ve C. C. F. Wolf (2008). Foreign Exchange Rates Expectations: Survey and Synthesis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22 (1), 140-165.
  • Jorion, P. (2007). Financial Risk Manager Handbook. New Jersey, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Kaminsky, G. L. (1993). Is There A Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987. American Economic Review, 83 (3), 450-472.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1923). A Tract on Monetary Reform. Londra: Macmillan.
  • Kohlhagen, S. W. (1978). A Model of Optimal Foreign Exchange Hedging without Exchange Rate Projections. Journal of International Business Studies, 9 (2), 9-19.
  • Krasker, W. S. (1980). The “Peso Problem” in Testing the Efficiency of Forward Exchange Markets. Journal of Monetary Economics, 6 (2), 269-276. Levi, M. D. (2009). International Finance. New York, NY: Routledge.
  • Levich, R. M. (1985). Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determination, and Market Efficiency. (Handbook of International Economics içinde), Amsterdam: Elsevier, 979-1040.
  • Lewis, K. K. (1989a). Can Learning Affect Exchange-rate Behavior? The Case of the Dollar in the Early 1980’s. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23 (1), 79-100.
  • Lewis, K. K. (1989b). Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange. American Economic Review, 79 (4), 621-636.
  • Lewis, K. K. (1995). Puzzles in International Financial Markets. (Handbook of International Economics içinde), Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1913-1971.
  • Lizondo, J. S. (1983). Foreign Exchange Futures Prices under Fixed Exchange Rates. Journal of International Economics, 14 (1-2), 69-84.
  • Loring, G. ve B. Lucey (2013). An Analysis of Forward Exchange Rate Biasedness across Developed and Developing Country Currencies: Do Observed Patterns Persist Out of Sample? Emerging Markets Review, 17, 14-28.
  • Lothian, J. R. ve L. Wu (2011). Uncovered Interest Rate Parity over the Past Two Centuries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30 (3), 448-473.
  • Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1982). Interest Rates and Currency Prices in a Two-Country World. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10 (3), 335-359.
  • MacDonald, R. ve J. Nagayasu (2015). Currency Forecast Errors and Carry Trades at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 53, 1-19.
  • MacDonald, R. ve M. P. Taylor (1991). Risk, Efficiency and Speculation in the 1920s Foreign Exchange Market: An Overlapping Data Analysis. Review of World Economics, 127 (3), 500-523.
  • MacDonald, R. ve M. P. Taylor (1993). The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-run Equilibrium and Forecasting. IMF Staff Papers, 40 (1), 89-107.
  • Mark, N. C. (1985). On Time Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 (1), 3-18.
  • McCallum, B. T. (1976). Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models: An Alternative Procedure. International Economic Review, 17 (2), 484-490.
  • Meese, R. A. (1986). Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates? Journal of Political Economy, 94 (2), 345-373.
  • Miller, N. C. (2014). Exchange Rate Economics: The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle and Other Anomalies. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Mussa, M. (1984). The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination, Exchange Rate Theory and Practice. (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report içinde). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 13-58.
  • Pasquariello, P. (2010). Central Bank Intervention and the Intraday Process of Price Formation in the Currency Markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29 (6), 1045-1061.
  • Peel, D. A. ve M. P. Taylor (2002). Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34 (1), 51-75.
  • Prat, G. ve R. Uctum (2013). Modeling the Horizon-dependent Ex-ante Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from Survey Data. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 23, 33-54.
  • Reinhart, C. M. ve V. R. Reinhart (2009). Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present. (National Bureau of Economic Research International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008 içinde), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 9-62.
  • Ruelke, J. C., M. R. Frenkel ve G. Stadtmann (2010). Expectations on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate – Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Forecast Poll. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 24 (3), 355-368.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1965). Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly. Industrial Management Review, 6 (2), 41-49.
  • Sarno, L. ve M. P. Taylor (1999). Moral Hazard, Asset Price Bubbles, Capital Flows, and the East Asian Crisis: The First Tests. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18 (4), 637-657.
  • Sarno, L. ve M. P. Taylor (2002). The Economics of Exchange Rates. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  • Scherbina, A. ve B. Schlusche (2014). Asset Price Bubbles: A Survey. Quantitative Finance, 14 (4), 589-604.
  • Takagi, S. (1991). Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies, IMF Staff Papers, 38 (1), 156-183.
  • Taylor, M. P. (1987). Covered Interest Parity: A High-Frequency, High-quality Data Study. Economica, 54 (216), 429-438.
  • Taylor, M. P. (1989). Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence. Economic Journal, 99 (396), 376-391.
  • Taylor, M. P. ve D. A. Peel (1998). Periodically Collapsing Stock Price Bubbles: A Robust Test. Economics Letters, 61 (2), 221-228.
  • Wang, P. (2009). Financial Econometrics. New York, NY: Routledge.

A Review on the Concepts of Efficiency and Expectations in Exchange Rate Markets

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 1 - 18, 23.07.2016

Öz

This paper aims to overview the definitions of efficiency and expectations in exchange rate markets and to present a literature review on the empirical findings. For this purpose, the paper starts from the efficiency measures in exchange rate markets and briefly examines the basic concepts in general and overviews the empirical findings for advanced economies in particular. In this context, this paper provides a comparative analysis to researchers, who are interested in the related subjects in international economics and international finance.

Kaynakça

  • Akram, Q. F., D. Rime ve L. Sarno (2008). Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope. Journal of International Economics, 76 (2), 237-253.
  • Akram, Q. F., D. Rime ve L. Sarno (2009). Does the Law of One Price Hold in International Financial Markets? Evidence from Tick Data. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33 (10), 1741-1754.
  • Alexander, C. (2009). Market Risk Analysis: Pricing, Hedging and Trading Financial Instrument. West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Aysun, U. ve S. Lee (2014). Can Time-varying Risk Premiums Explain the Excess Returns in the Interest Rate Parity Condition? Emerging Markets Review, 18, 78-100.
  • Baillie, R. T. ve D. Cho (2014). Time Variation in the Standard Forward Premium Regression: Some New Models and Tests. Journal of Empirical Finance, 29, 52-63.
  • Baillie, R. T., R. E. Lippens ve P. C. McMahon (1983). Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Exchange Market. Econometrica, 51 (3), 553-563.
  • Balke, N. S. ve M. E. Wohar (1998). Nonlinear Dynamics and Covered Interest Parity. Empirical Economics, 23 (4), 535-559.
  • Balvers, R. J. ve A. F. Klein (2014). Currency Risk Premia and Uncovered Interest Parity in the International CAPM. Journal of International Money and Finance, 41, 214-230.
  • Bekaert, G. (1996). The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective. Review of Financial Studies, 9 (2), 427-470.
  • Bekaert, G. ve R. J. Hodrick (1993). On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums. Journal of International Money and Finance, 12 (2), 115-138.
  • Bekaert, G. ve R. J. Hodrick (2001). Expectations Hypotheses Tests. Journal of Finance, 56 (4), 1357-1394.
  • Bekaert, G., E. Engstrom ve Y. Xing (2009). Risk, Uncertainty and Asset Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 91 (1), 59-82.
  • Bollerslev, T. ve R. J. Hodrick (1999). Financial Market Efficiency Test. (Handbook of Applied Econometrics: Macroeconomics içinde) Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 415-458.
  • Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum ve S. Rebelo (2011a). Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 3 (1), 511-535.
  • Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum, I. Kleshchelski ve S. Rebelo (2011b). Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade? Review of Financial Studies, 24 (3), 853-891.
  • Campbell, J. Y. ve R. J. Shiller (1987). Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models. Journal of Political Economy, 95 (5), 1062-1088.
  • Chen, C. Y-H., I-D. Kuob ve T. C. Chiang (2014). What Explains Deviations in the Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis? Market Irrationality vs. the Peso Problem. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 30, 172-190.
  • Clarida, R. H. ve M. P. Taylor (1997). The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79 (3), 353-361.
  • Clarida, R. H., L. Sarno, M. P. Taylor ve G. Valente (2003). The Out-of-sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond. Journal of International Economics, 60 (1), 61-83.
  • Clinton, K. (1988). Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 96 (2), 358-370.
  • Cumby, R. E. ve M. Obstfeld (1981). A Note on Exchange-rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis. Journal of Finance, 36 (3), 697703.
  • Dueker, M. ve C. J. Neely (2007). Can Markov Switching Models Predict Excess Foreign Exchange Returns? Journal of Banking and Finance, 31 (2), 279-296.
  • Einzig, P. (1937). The Theory of Forward Exchange. Londra: Macmillan.
  • Engel, C. (2014). Exchange Rates and Interest Parity. Handbook of International Economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 453-522.
  • Engel, C. (2015). Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No: 21042.
  • Engel, C. ve J. D. Hamilton (1990). Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It. American Economic Review, 80 (4), 689-713.
  • Evans, G. W. (1986). A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84. American Economic Review, 76 (4), 621-636.
  • Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25 (2), 383-423.
  • Fama, E. F. (1984). Forward and Spot Exchange Rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14 (3), 319-338.
  • Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient Capital Markets II. Journal of Finance, 46 (5), 1575-1617.
  • Flood, R. P. ve R. J. Hodrick (1990). On Testing for Speculative Bubbles. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4 (2), 85-101.
  • Fong, W-M., G. Valente ve J. K. W. Fung (2010). Covered Interest Arbitrage Profits: The Role of Liquidity and Credit Risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34 (5), 1098-1107.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1988). Recent Estimates of Time-variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium. Journal of International Money and Finance, 7 (1), 115-125.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1990). Zen and the Art of Modern Macroeconomics: A Commentary. (Monetary Policy for a Volatile Global Economy içinde), Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 117-123.
  • Frankel, J. A. ve K. A. Froot (1987). Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations. American Economic Review, 77 (1), 133-153.
  • Frenkel, J. A. ve R. M. Levich (1975). Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits? Journal of Political Economy, 83 (2), 325-338.
  • Frenkel, J. A. ve R. M. Levich (1977). Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods. Journal of Political Economy, 85 (6), 1209-1226.
  • Froot, K. A. ve J. A. Frankel (1989). Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104 (1), 139-161.
  • Geweke, J. F. ve E. L. Feige (1979). Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange. Review of Economics and Statistics, 61 (3), 334-341.
  • Hakkio, C. S. (1981). Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate. International Economic Review, 22 (3), 663-678. Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large Sample Properties of Generalised Method of Moments Estimators. Econometrica, 50 (4), 1029-1054.
  • Hansen, L. P. ve R. J. Hodrick (1980). Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 88 (5), 829853.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46 (6), 12511271.
  • Henderson, C. (2006). Currency Strategy: the Practitioner’s Guide to Currency Investing, Hedging and Forecasting. West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Homaifar, G. (2004). Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Rate Risk. New Jersey, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Huang, R. D. (1981). The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate in an Efficient Foreign Exchange Market: Tests Based on Volatility. Journal of Finance, 36 (1), 31-41.
  • Im, K. S. (1996). Least Square Approach to Non-Normal Disturbances. University of Cambridge Department of Applied Economics Working Paper, No. 9603.
  • Jongen, R., W. F. C. Verschoor ve C. C. F. Wolf (2008). Foreign Exchange Rates Expectations: Survey and Synthesis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22 (1), 140-165.
  • Jorion, P. (2007). Financial Risk Manager Handbook. New Jersey, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Kaminsky, G. L. (1993). Is There A Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987. American Economic Review, 83 (3), 450-472.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1923). A Tract on Monetary Reform. Londra: Macmillan.
  • Kohlhagen, S. W. (1978). A Model of Optimal Foreign Exchange Hedging without Exchange Rate Projections. Journal of International Business Studies, 9 (2), 9-19.
  • Krasker, W. S. (1980). The “Peso Problem” in Testing the Efficiency of Forward Exchange Markets. Journal of Monetary Economics, 6 (2), 269-276. Levi, M. D. (2009). International Finance. New York, NY: Routledge.
  • Levich, R. M. (1985). Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determination, and Market Efficiency. (Handbook of International Economics içinde), Amsterdam: Elsevier, 979-1040.
  • Lewis, K. K. (1989a). Can Learning Affect Exchange-rate Behavior? The Case of the Dollar in the Early 1980’s. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23 (1), 79-100.
  • Lewis, K. K. (1989b). Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange. American Economic Review, 79 (4), 621-636.
  • Lewis, K. K. (1995). Puzzles in International Financial Markets. (Handbook of International Economics içinde), Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1913-1971.
  • Lizondo, J. S. (1983). Foreign Exchange Futures Prices under Fixed Exchange Rates. Journal of International Economics, 14 (1-2), 69-84.
  • Loring, G. ve B. Lucey (2013). An Analysis of Forward Exchange Rate Biasedness across Developed and Developing Country Currencies: Do Observed Patterns Persist Out of Sample? Emerging Markets Review, 17, 14-28.
  • Lothian, J. R. ve L. Wu (2011). Uncovered Interest Rate Parity over the Past Two Centuries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30 (3), 448-473.
  • Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1982). Interest Rates and Currency Prices in a Two-Country World. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10 (3), 335-359.
  • MacDonald, R. ve J. Nagayasu (2015). Currency Forecast Errors and Carry Trades at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 53, 1-19.
  • MacDonald, R. ve M. P. Taylor (1991). Risk, Efficiency and Speculation in the 1920s Foreign Exchange Market: An Overlapping Data Analysis. Review of World Economics, 127 (3), 500-523.
  • MacDonald, R. ve M. P. Taylor (1993). The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-run Equilibrium and Forecasting. IMF Staff Papers, 40 (1), 89-107.
  • Mark, N. C. (1985). On Time Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 (1), 3-18.
  • McCallum, B. T. (1976). Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models: An Alternative Procedure. International Economic Review, 17 (2), 484-490.
  • Meese, R. A. (1986). Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates? Journal of Political Economy, 94 (2), 345-373.
  • Miller, N. C. (2014). Exchange Rate Economics: The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle and Other Anomalies. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Mussa, M. (1984). The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination, Exchange Rate Theory and Practice. (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report içinde). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 13-58.
  • Pasquariello, P. (2010). Central Bank Intervention and the Intraday Process of Price Formation in the Currency Markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29 (6), 1045-1061.
  • Peel, D. A. ve M. P. Taylor (2002). Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34 (1), 51-75.
  • Prat, G. ve R. Uctum (2013). Modeling the Horizon-dependent Ex-ante Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from Survey Data. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 23, 33-54.
  • Reinhart, C. M. ve V. R. Reinhart (2009). Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present. (National Bureau of Economic Research International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008 içinde), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 9-62.
  • Ruelke, J. C., M. R. Frenkel ve G. Stadtmann (2010). Expectations on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate – Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Forecast Poll. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 24 (3), 355-368.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1965). Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly. Industrial Management Review, 6 (2), 41-49.
  • Sarno, L. ve M. P. Taylor (1999). Moral Hazard, Asset Price Bubbles, Capital Flows, and the East Asian Crisis: The First Tests. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18 (4), 637-657.
  • Sarno, L. ve M. P. Taylor (2002). The Economics of Exchange Rates. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  • Scherbina, A. ve B. Schlusche (2014). Asset Price Bubbles: A Survey. Quantitative Finance, 14 (4), 589-604.
  • Takagi, S. (1991). Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies, IMF Staff Papers, 38 (1), 156-183.
  • Taylor, M. P. (1987). Covered Interest Parity: A High-Frequency, High-quality Data Study. Economica, 54 (216), 429-438.
  • Taylor, M. P. (1989). Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence. Economic Journal, 99 (396), 376-391.
  • Taylor, M. P. ve D. A. Peel (1998). Periodically Collapsing Stock Price Bubbles: A Robust Test. Economics Letters, 61 (2), 221-228.
  • Wang, P. (2009). Financial Econometrics. New York, NY: Routledge.
Toplam 82 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA57RE86JB
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Giray Gözgör Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 23 Temmuz 2016
Gönderilme Tarihi 23 Temmuz 2016
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2016 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Gözgör, G. (2016). Döviz Piyasalarında Etkinlik ve Beklentiler Kavramları Üzerine Bir İnceleme. İktisadi Yenilik Dergisi, 3(2), 1-18.