Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 67 Sayı: 1, 1 - 12, 01.01.2017

İbrahim Yurtseven Yusuf Serengil

https://doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.30673

Öz

Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: Several studies revealed that climate change can affect local and regional precipitation patterns. Long term trends and cycles in precipitation is important for the health of ecosystems in the region. The possible impacts in near future can affect the forest and water resources of Istanbul.  In this study, daily, monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation analyses for the different meteorology stations were examined for the İstanbul province. Northern and southern different climatic conditions of İstanbul have been effective selection of the station. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that there is positive statistically significant trend in some meteorology stations. According to Mann-Kendall results the increased fall precipitation trend were found in Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy meteorology stations and decreased summer precipitation trend were found in Göztepe meteorology stations

Keywords: Mann-Kendall trend analysis, precipitation time series, the regional precipitation reactions analysis, climate change

İstanbul ilinde mevsimsel toplam yağışların değişimleri ve eğilimleri

Özet: İklim değişikliğinin bölgesel ve yöresel ölçekte yağış rejimi üzerinde etkileri olabileceği birçok araştırma ile ortaya konulmuştur. Yağış serilerindeki uzun dönemli yönelimler ve döngüler yöredeki ekosistemlerin sağlığı ve geleceği açısından büyük önem arzetmektedir. İstanbul ilinde önümüzdeki dönemde gerçekleşebilecek etkiler ise hem su kaynakları hem de ormanlar üzerinde önemli sonuçlar ortaya çıkarabilir. Bu çalışmada İstanbul iline ait farklı meteoroloji istasyonlarının uzun dönemli mevsimlik verileri araştırılmıştır. Çalışmadaki amacımız ileriye dönük tahminlerdeki belirsizlikleri belli oranda ortadan kaldırabilecek geçmişe dönük veriler yardımıyla istatistiksel analizleri gerçekleştirmektir. İstasyon seçiminde İstanbul’un kırsal ve kentsel bölgelerindeki farklı iklim koşulları etkili olmuştur.  Mann-Kendall testi sonuçlarına göre Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy Meteoroloji Istasyonları’nda seçilen sonbahar mevsimi yağışlarında, Göztepe Meteoroloji Istasyonu’nda ise yaz mevsimi yağışlarında istatistiksel anlamda artan bir trend bulunmuştur.

Anahtar kelimeler: Mann-Kendall trend analizi, yağış zaman serileri, iklim değişikliği

Received (Geliş): 10.02.2016 - Revised (Düzeltme): 05.05.2016 -   Accepted (Kabul): 24.05.2016

Cite (Atıf): Yurtseven, I., Serengil, Y., 2017. Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University 67(1): 1-12. DOI: 10.17099/jffiu.30673

İstanbul ilinde mevsimsel toplam yağışların değişimleri ve eğilimleri

Öz

Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: Several studies revealed that climate change can affect local and regional precipitation patterns. Long term trends and cycles in precipitation is important for the health of ecosystems in the region. The possible impacts in near future can affect the forest and water resources of Istanbul.  In this study, daily, monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation analyses for the different meteorology stations were examined for the İstanbul province. Northern and southern different climatic conditions of İstanbul have been effective selection of the station. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that there is positive statistically significant trend in some meteorology stations. According to Mann-Kendall results the increased fall precipitation trend were found in Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy meteorology stations and decreased summer precipitation trend were found in Göztepe meteorology stations

Keywords: Mann-Kendall trend analysis, precipitation time series, the regional precipitation reactions analysis, climate change

İstanbul ilinde mevsimsel toplam yağışların değişimleri ve eğilimleri

Özet: İklim değişikliğinin bölgesel ve yöresel ölçekte yağış rejimi üzerinde etkileri olabileceği birçok araştırma ile ortaya konulmuştur. Yağış serilerindeki uzun dönemli yönelimler ve döngüler yöredeki ekosistemlerin sağlığı ve geleceği açısından büyük önem arzetmektedir. İstanbul ilinde önümüzdeki dönemde gerçekleşebilecek etkiler ise hem su kaynakları hem de ormanlar üzerinde önemli sonuçlar ortaya çıkarabilir. Bu çalışmada İstanbul iline ait farklı meteoroloji istasyonlarının uzun dönemli mevsimlik verileri araştırılmıştır. Çalışmadaki amacımız ileriye dönük tahminlerdeki belirsizlikleri belli oranda ortadan kaldırabilecek geçmişe dönük veriler yardımıyla istatistiksel analizleri gerçekleştirmektir. İstasyon seçiminde İstanbul’un kırsal ve kentsel bölgelerindeki farklı iklim koşulları etkili olmuştur.  Mann-Kendall testi sonuçlarına göre Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy Meteoroloji Istasyonları’nda seçilen sonbahar mevsimi yağışlarında, Göztepe Meteoroloji Istasyonu’nda ise yaz mevsimi yağışlarında istatistiksel anlamda artan bir trend bulunmuştur.

Anahtar kelimeler: Mann-Kendall trend analizi, yağış zaman serileri, iklim değişikliği

Received (Geliş): 10.02.2016 - Revised (Düzeltme): 05.05.2016 -   Accepted (Kabul): 24.05.2016

Cite (Atıf): Yurtseven, I., Serengil, Y., 2017. Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University 67(1): 1-12. DOI: 10.17099/jffiu.30673

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