Araştırma Makalesi
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Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 69 - 78, 01.06.2016

Öz

Çalışmada 1990 ile 2014dönemi arasında enerji
tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki zamansal nedensellik ilişkisi
incelenmektedir. Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi
çalışmada kullanılmıştır. Enerji tüketimi değişkeni olarak kişi başına toplam
enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme değişkeni olarak da kişi başına düşen
gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla verisi kullanılarak analiz yapılmıştır. ARDL sınır
testi sonuçlarına göre enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli
istikrarlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına
bakıldığında ise toplam enerji tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü
bir nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Genel olarak araştırma enerji tüketiminin
Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeye neden olduğu sonucuna ulaşmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Abosedra, S., Baghestani, H., (1989). New evidence on the causal relationship between United States energy consumption and gross national product. Journal of Energy Development 14, 285–292.
  • Adhikari, D. and Chen, Y. (2013). Energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis for developing countries, Review of Economics & Finance 3: 68–80.
  • Akarca, A.T., Long, T. V., (1980). On the relationship between energy and GNP: a reexamination. Journal of Energy Development 5, 326–331.
  • Altinay, G., & Karagol, E. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics, 27(6), 849-856.
  • Asafu-Adjaye, J., (2000). The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics 22, 615–625.
  • Bayraç, H. N. (2009). Küresel Enerji Politikaları ve Türkiye: Petrol ve Doğal Gaz Kaynakları Açısından Bir Karşılaştırma. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1).
  • Bildirici, M., Bakirtas, T., & Kayikci, F. (2012). Economic growth and electricity consumption: An ARDL analysis. In 31st CIRET Conference.
  • Casselli, F., Esquivel, G., Lefort, F., (1996). Reopening the convergence debate: a new look at cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Growth 1 (3).
  • Chang, T., Fang, W., Wen, L., (2001). Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and errorcorrection modeling techniques. Applied Economics 33, 1045–1056.
  • Cheng, B.S., (1995). An investigation of cointegration and causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Journal of Energy and Development 21, 73–84.
  • Cheng, B.S., (1997). Energy consumption and economic growth in Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela: a time series analysis. Applied Economics Letters 4, 671–674.
  • Cheng, B.S., (1999). Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: an application of cointegration and error-correction modeling. Indian Economic Review 34 (1), 39–49.
  • Cheng, B.S., Lai, T.W., (1997). An investigation of cointegration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan. Energy Economics 19, 435–444.
  • Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakalığı, (2014). ETKB 2015-2019 Stratejik Planı.
  • Engle, R.F., Granger, C.J., (1987). Cointegration and error-correction-representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55, 251–278.
  • Fatai, K., Oxley L. and Scrimgeour, F. G. (2004), “Modelling the Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand”, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64, 431–445.
  • Ghirmay, T., (2004). Financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from time Series analysis. African Development Review 16, 415–432.
  • Glasure, Y.U., (2002). Energy and national income in Korea: further evidence on the role of omitted variables. Energy Economics 24, 355–365.
  • Granger, C.W., (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37, 424–438.
  • Granger, C.W., (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics 39, 199–211.
  • Guilkey, D.K., Salemi, M., (1982). Small sample properties of three tests for Grangercausal ordering in a bivariate stochastic system. Review of Economics and Statistics 64, 668–681.
  • Harris, R., Sollis, R., (2003). Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting. Wiley, West Sussex.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Irandoust, M., (2005). Energy consumption and economic growth in Sweden: a leveraged bootstrap approach (1965–2000). International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies 2–4, 87–98.
  • Kraft, J., Kraft, A., (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. Journal of Energy Development 3, 401–403.
  • Masih, A.M., Masih, R., (1996). Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and errorcorrection techniques. Energy Economics 18, 165–183.
  • Masih, A.M.M., Masih, R., (1997). On the causal relationship between energy consumption, real income prices: some new evidence from Asian NICs based on multivariate cointegration/vector error correction approach. Journal of Policy Modeling 19, 417–440.
  • Morley, B., (2006). Causality between economic growth and migration: an ARDL bounds testing approach. Economics Letters 90, 72–76.
  • Mozumder, P., Marathe, A., (2007). Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh. Energy Policy 35, 395–402.
  • Narayan, P.K., (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics 37, 1979–1990.
  • Narayan, P.K., Prasad, A., (2008). Electricity consumption—real GDP causality nexus: evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries. Energy Policy 36, 910–918.
  • Narayan, P.K., Singh, B., (2007). The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for Fiji Islands. Energy Economics 29, 1141–1150.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., (2005). Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia: evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests. Energy Policy 33, 1109–1116.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., (2006). Higher education, real income and real investment in China: evidence from Granger causality tests. Education Economics 14, 107–125.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., (2008). Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks. Energy Economics 30, 2331–2341.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Kayhan, S., & Adiguzel, U. (2014). Electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear Granger causality. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9(4), 315-324.
  • Odhiambo, N.M., (2008). Financial depth, savings and economic growth in Kenya: a dynamic causal linkage. Economic Modelling 25 (4), 704–713.
  • Paul, S., Bhattacharya, R.B., (2004). Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results. Energy Economics 26, 977–983.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis. In: Strom, S. (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., Smith, R., (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 289–326.
  • Quah, D., (1993). Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth. European Economic Review 37 (2-3).
  • Shiu, A., Lam, P.L., (2004). Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy 32, 47–54.
  • Takaendesa, P., Odhiambo, N.M., (2007). Financial development and economic growth: an empirical analysis of two Southern African countries. Studies in Economics and Econometrics 31 (3), 61–80.
  • Yang, H.Y., (2000). A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics 22, 309–317.
  • Yapraklı, S., Yurttançıkmaz, Z. Ç. (2012). Elektrik Tüketimi İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, CU İİBF Dergisi 13(2).
  • Yu, E.S.H., Hwang, B.K., (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: further results. Energy Economics 6, 186–1990.

The Investigation of Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth By ARDL Bound Test in Turkey

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 69 - 78, 01.06.2016

Öz

The study examines the intertemporal causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth between
1990 and 2014. The ARDL bounds test developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is used
in the study. While per capita energy consumption is used as a variable in
energy consumption, per capita gross domestic product is used as economic
growth variable. According to the ARDL bounds test results, a long-term stable
relationship between energy consumption and Economic growth has been
identified. From the results of the causality test, one-way causality from
total energy consumption to Economic growth is determined.  Overall, the study finds that energy
consumption cause Economic growth in Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Abosedra, S., Baghestani, H., (1989). New evidence on the causal relationship between United States energy consumption and gross national product. Journal of Energy Development 14, 285–292.
  • Adhikari, D. and Chen, Y. (2013). Energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis for developing countries, Review of Economics & Finance 3: 68–80.
  • Akarca, A.T., Long, T. V., (1980). On the relationship between energy and GNP: a reexamination. Journal of Energy Development 5, 326–331.
  • Altinay, G., & Karagol, E. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics, 27(6), 849-856.
  • Asafu-Adjaye, J., (2000). The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics 22, 615–625.
  • Bayraç, H. N. (2009). Küresel Enerji Politikaları ve Türkiye: Petrol ve Doğal Gaz Kaynakları Açısından Bir Karşılaştırma. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1).
  • Bildirici, M., Bakirtas, T., & Kayikci, F. (2012). Economic growth and electricity consumption: An ARDL analysis. In 31st CIRET Conference.
  • Casselli, F., Esquivel, G., Lefort, F., (1996). Reopening the convergence debate: a new look at cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Growth 1 (3).
  • Chang, T., Fang, W., Wen, L., (2001). Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and errorcorrection modeling techniques. Applied Economics 33, 1045–1056.
  • Cheng, B.S., (1995). An investigation of cointegration and causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Journal of Energy and Development 21, 73–84.
  • Cheng, B.S., (1997). Energy consumption and economic growth in Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela: a time series analysis. Applied Economics Letters 4, 671–674.
  • Cheng, B.S., (1999). Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: an application of cointegration and error-correction modeling. Indian Economic Review 34 (1), 39–49.
  • Cheng, B.S., Lai, T.W., (1997). An investigation of cointegration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan. Energy Economics 19, 435–444.
  • Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakalığı, (2014). ETKB 2015-2019 Stratejik Planı.
  • Engle, R.F., Granger, C.J., (1987). Cointegration and error-correction-representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55, 251–278.
  • Fatai, K., Oxley L. and Scrimgeour, F. G. (2004), “Modelling the Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand”, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64, 431–445.
  • Ghirmay, T., (2004). Financial development and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from time Series analysis. African Development Review 16, 415–432.
  • Glasure, Y.U., (2002). Energy and national income in Korea: further evidence on the role of omitted variables. Energy Economics 24, 355–365.
  • Granger, C.W., (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37, 424–438.
  • Granger, C.W., (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics 39, 199–211.
  • Guilkey, D.K., Salemi, M., (1982). Small sample properties of three tests for Grangercausal ordering in a bivariate stochastic system. Review of Economics and Statistics 64, 668–681.
  • Harris, R., Sollis, R., (2003). Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting. Wiley, West Sussex.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Irandoust, M., (2005). Energy consumption and economic growth in Sweden: a leveraged bootstrap approach (1965–2000). International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies 2–4, 87–98.
  • Kraft, J., Kraft, A., (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. Journal of Energy Development 3, 401–403.
  • Masih, A.M., Masih, R., (1996). Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and errorcorrection techniques. Energy Economics 18, 165–183.
  • Masih, A.M.M., Masih, R., (1997). On the causal relationship between energy consumption, real income prices: some new evidence from Asian NICs based on multivariate cointegration/vector error correction approach. Journal of Policy Modeling 19, 417–440.
  • Morley, B., (2006). Causality between economic growth and migration: an ARDL bounds testing approach. Economics Letters 90, 72–76.
  • Mozumder, P., Marathe, A., (2007). Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh. Energy Policy 35, 395–402.
  • Narayan, P.K., (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics 37, 1979–1990.
  • Narayan, P.K., Prasad, A., (2008). Electricity consumption—real GDP causality nexus: evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries. Energy Policy 36, 910–918.
  • Narayan, P.K., Singh, B., (2007). The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for Fiji Islands. Energy Economics 29, 1141–1150.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., (2005). Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia: evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests. Energy Policy 33, 1109–1116.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., (2006). Higher education, real income and real investment in China: evidence from Granger causality tests. Education Economics 14, 107–125.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., (2008). Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks. Energy Economics 30, 2331–2341.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Kayhan, S., & Adiguzel, U. (2014). Electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear Granger causality. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9(4), 315-324.
  • Odhiambo, N.M., (2008). Financial depth, savings and economic growth in Kenya: a dynamic causal linkage. Economic Modelling 25 (4), 704–713.
  • Paul, S., Bhattacharya, R.B., (2004). Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results. Energy Economics 26, 977–983.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis. In: Strom, S. (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., Smith, R., (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 289–326.
  • Quah, D., (1993). Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth. European Economic Review 37 (2-3).
  • Shiu, A., Lam, P.L., (2004). Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy 32, 47–54.
  • Takaendesa, P., Odhiambo, N.M., (2007). Financial development and economic growth: an empirical analysis of two Southern African countries. Studies in Economics and Econometrics 31 (3), 61–80.
  • Yang, H.Y., (2000). A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics 22, 309–317.
  • Yapraklı, S., Yurttançıkmaz, Z. Ç. (2012). Elektrik Tüketimi İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, CU İİBF Dergisi 13(2).
  • Yu, E.S.H., Hwang, B.K., (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: further results. Energy Economics 6, 186–1990.
Toplam 45 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Türker Şimşek

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2016
Kabul Tarihi 16 Mart 2016
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2016 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Şimşek, T. (2016). Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, 4(1), 69-78.
AMA Şimşek T. Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives. Aralık 2016;4(1):69-78.
Chicago Şimşek, Türker. “Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi”. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives 4, sy. 1 (Aralık 2016): 69-78.
EndNote Şimşek T (01 Aralık 2016) Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives 4 1 69–78.
IEEE T. Şimşek, “Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi”, Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, c. 4, sy. 1, ss. 69–78, 2016.
ISNAD Şimşek, Türker. “Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi”. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives 4/1 (Aralık 2016), 69-78.
JAMA Şimşek T. Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives. 2016;4:69–78.
MLA Şimşek, Türker. “Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi”. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, c. 4, sy. 1, 2016, ss. 69-78.
Vancouver Şimşek T. Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives. 2016;4(1):69-78.