POLITICAL TAX CYCLES: POLITICAL EFFECTS ON TAX REVENUES AND TAX BURDEN IN TURKEY (1945-2014)

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 103 - 124, 30.04.2017

İbrahim Demir Turgay Berksoy

Öz

This
study analyzes the effects of general elections on tax revenues and tax burden
in Turkey. Approaches that have ignored the political decision mechanism,
behaviors of political actors, and institutional structure have been
insufficient in explaining the variation in taxation variables. In this
context, this study asserts that politicians manipulate taxation in order to
get re-elected. Incorporating the institutional structure into the analysis,
the study develops hypotheses that can help better understand variations in
fiscal and economic variables. The study tests its main hypothesis through a
vector error correction (VEC) estimation on data that cover the period of
1945-2014. Having controlled for relevant factors, the study finds no
significant relationship between 18 election years, tax revenues, and tax
burden in Turkey. It can be argued that one of the main reasons for this
finding is political instability that has been observed in the Turkish
political system until the early 2000s. Despite having 18 elections, Turkey had
46 governmental changes between 1945 and 2014. Under such a politically
unstable environment, politicians might not have stayed long enough in the
office to establish their network and influence.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Election Economics, Political Decision Mechanism, Tax Burden, Behaviors Of Political Actors, Corporate Looseness, Political Tax Cycles

POLİTİK VERGİ ÇEVRİMLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DE VERGİ GELİRLERİ VE VERGİ YÜKÜ ÜZERİNDE POLİTİK ETKİLER (1945-2014)

Öz

            Bu
çalışma, Türkiye’de seçimlerin vergileme üzerindeki etkilerini analiz
etmektedir. Vergi değişkenlerindeki değişimlerin açıklanmasında, siyasal karar
alma mekanizmasının işleyişini, bu mekanizmada rol alan aktörlerin
davranışlarını ve kurumsal yapının bu mekanizmanın hem işleyişi hem de
sonuçları üzerindeki etkilerini ihmal eden yaklaşımlar yetersiz kalmaktadır. Bu
bağlamda, bu çalışmanın temel hipotezi politikacıların yeniden-seçilme
güdüsüyle vergilemeyi manipüle edebileceğidir. Çalışmada, politikacının seçim
kazanma ihtimalini maksimize edecek vergileme modellenmekte, kurumsal faktörler
de analize dahil ederek ekonomik-mali olguların açıklanmasına yardımcı olacak
varsayımlar geliştirilmektedir. 1945-2014 yıllarını kapsayan ampirik analizde
vektör hata düzeltme yöntemi (VEC) kullanılmış ve seçim yılları ile vergi
gelirleri arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Bunun en önemli nedenlerinden
biri, çalışma döneminin büyük 
çoğunluğunda gözlemlenen siyasal istikrarsızlık olabilir. Çalışma dönemine
rastlayan yıllarda 18 seçim yapılmış olmasına rağmen 46 hükümet değişikliği
gerçekleşmiştir. Bu nedenle, iktidardaki politikacılar vergileme değişkenlerini
etkileyebilecek güç ve sürekliliği elde edememiş olabilirler

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seçim ekonomisi, siyasal karar alma mekanizması, vergi yükü, politikacı davranışı, kurumsal gevşeklik, politik vergi çevrimleri

Kaynakça

• Alesina, et al. 1999. “The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments”. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Vol. 1998. No. 1. 197-266.
• Alesina, Alberto and Nouriel Roubini. 1992. “Political Cycles in OECD Economies”. Review of Economic Studies. No. 59. 663-668.
• Barro, Robert. “Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States”. American Economic Review. 67. (Mar.). 101-115.
• -------, “Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States”. Journal of Political Economy. No: 86. (Aug.). 549-580.
• Becker, Gary S. “A Theory of Competition Among Pressure Groups for Political Influence”. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. XCVIII. Aug. No. 3. 371-400.
• Cargill, Thomas F. And Michael E. Hutchison. 1991. “Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Japan”. The Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 73. No. 4. (Nov.). 733-739.
• Demir, Ibrahim. 2006. “Bir Devlet Başarısızlığı Çeşidi olarak Temsili Demokrasilerde Etkinsizlikler”. içinde: Devlet Başarısızlığının Anatomisini İrdeleyen En Az Devlet En İyi Devlet. Editör: Coşkun Can Aktan. Çizgi. Konya.
• Dickey, David A. And Wayne A. Fuller. 1981. “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica. Vol. 49. No. 4. July.
• Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Harper and Brothers. New York.
• Elliott, G. R., T. J. Rothenberg, and J. H. Stock. 1996. “Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root”. Econometrica 64: 813–836.
• Fair, Ray. 1987. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update”. NBER Working Paper. No. 2222. Apr.
• Gujarati, Damodar N. and Dawn C. Porter. 2009. Basic Econometrics. McGraw Hill Irwin. Boston.
• Hassler, Uwe. 2002. “Dickey-Fuller Cointegration Test in the Presence of Regime Shifts at Known Time”. Allge¬meines Statistisches Archiv 86. 263-276.
• Haynes, Stephen E. And Joe A. Stone. 1989. “An Integrated Test for Electoral Cycles in the US Economy”. The review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 71. No. 3. (Aug.). 426-434.
• Heckelman, Jac C. and Hakan Berument. 1998. “Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections”. Southern Economic Journal. Vol. 64, No. 4 (Apr.), pp. 987-1000.
• Johansen, S. 1988. “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Volume 12, Issues 2–3, June–September 1988, Pages 231-254.
• Johansen, S. 1995. Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Kalecki, Michael. [1972(1980)]. “Political Aspects of Full Employment”. in The Political Economy: Readings in American Economics and Public Policy. (Edited by Thomas Ferguson and Joe Rogers). M. E. Sharpe Inc. Armonk. New York. London.
• Kaya, Ayşe. 2014. “Vergi Aflarının Vergi Gelirlerine Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz”. Maliye Dergisi. Maliye Dergisi. Sayı. 167. Temmuz-Aralık. 184-199.
• Keil, Manfred W. “Is the Political Business Cycle Really Dead?”. Southern Economic Journal. Vol. 55, No. 1 (Jul.). pp. 86-99.
• Khaldun, Ibn. [1357. (1967)]. The Muqaddimah An Introduction to History. (Translated by Franz Rosenthal). Bollingen Series/ Princeton. Princeton University Press.
• Kilian, L. and H. Lütkepohl. (Çıkacak kitap). Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
• Klein, Benjamin and Keith B. Leffler. 1981. “The Role of Market Forces in Assuring Contractual Performance”. Journal of Political Economy. 89. August. 615-641.
• Laffer, Arthur. (2004). “The Laffer Curve: Past, Present, and Future”, The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder#1765. Available at: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2004/06/The-Laffer-Curve-Past-Present-and-Future (accessed: 10/19/2010).
• Landes, William M. and Richard A. Posner. 1975. “The Independent Judiciary in an Interest-Group Perspective”. Journal of Law and Economics. Vol. 18. No. 3. Dec.
• Lowi, T. 1964. “American Business and Public Policy: Case Studies and Political Theory”. World Politics. 16 (3).
• Lütkepohl, H. 2005. New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. New York: Springer.
• McChesney, Fred S. 1987. “Rent Extraction and Rent Creation in Economic Theory of Regulation”. Journal of Legal Studies. Vol. XVI. Jan.
• Newey, Whitney K. and Kenneth D. West. 1987. “A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix”. Econometrica. Vol. 55, No. 3 (May), pp. 703-708.
• Niskanen, William A. 1971. Bureaucracy and Representative Government. Aldine Atherton.
• Nolivos, Roberto Delhy and Guillermo Vuletin. 2014. “The role of central bank independence on optimal taxation and seigniorage”. European Journal of Political Economy. Volume 34. June. Pages 440-458. ISSN 0176-2680. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.09.010.
• Nordhaus, William D. 1989. “Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle”. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Vol. 1989. No. 7.. 1-68.
• Nordhaus, William D. 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 42 (2) pp. 169-90
• North, Douglass C. 1990. Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.
• Ollé, Albert Solé. 2003. “Electoral accountability and tax mimicking: the effects of electoral margins, coalition government, and ideology”. European Journal of Political Economy Volume 19. Issue 4. November. Pages 685–713.
• Olson, Mancur. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and Theory of Groups. Harvard University Press. Cambridge. London.
• Peltzman, Sam. 1992. “Voters as Fiscal Conservatives”. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 107(2). 327-61.
• Persson, Torsten and Guido Tabellini. 2004. “Constitutional Rules and Fiscal Policy Outcomes”. The American Economic Review. Mar. Vol. 94. No. 1. 25-45.
• Rogoff, Kenneth and Anne Siebert. 1988. “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles”. Review of Economic Studies. LV. 1-16.
• Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of Economy. Princeton University Press. Princeton. New Jersey.
• Weingast, Barry R., et al. 1981. “The Political Economy of Benefits and Costs: A Neoclassical Approach to Distributive Politics”. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 89. No. 41. Feb-Aug.
• Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2000. Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach. South-Western College Publishing. İstatistiki veri Türkiye Büyük Millet Meclisi (TBMM), Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) ve Maliye Bakanlığı kaynaklarından derlendi.