Reel Kurun Türkiye’de Ekonomik Faaliyetler Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 63 - 75, 01.06.2011

Tuba Direkçi Ömer Özçiçek

Öz

Reel kurun gelişen ekonomilerde ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi önemli bir tartışma konusudur. Ortodoks görüşe göre yerel para birimindeki değer kaybı, ihracatı artırması açısından ülke ekonomisini daha hızlı büyümeye teşvik eder. Dünya Bankası ve Uluslararası Para Fonu’nun birçok gelişmekte olan ülkeye tavsiye ettiği ekonomik programın en önemli ayaklarından biri, devalüasyon yapılmasıdır. Bütün ekonomistler, devalüasyonun olumlu etkisi konusunda hemfikir değildir. Bu çalışmada döviz kurundaki değişmelerin Türk Ekonomisi’ne yansımasının ne şekilde olduğu, GSYİH ve alt kollarına bakılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar reel kur artışının GSYİH’yı, özel sektör makine teçhizat ve stok değişken kalemini arttırırken, özel sektör bina inşaat kalemini olumsuz etkilediğini ve tüketim de dahil diğer alt bileşenleri etkilemediğini göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz Kuru, Ekonomik Etki, Üretim, Tüketim, Yatırım

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Economic Activities in Turkey

Öz

The effect of the real exchange rate on economic growth in developing countries is an important discussion subject. According to the orthodox view a devaluation in local currency increases exports which stimulates economic growth. One pillar of the economic programs advised by the World Bank and IMF to developing countries is to devaluate. However, not all economists agree that devaluations have a positive effect. In this study, we investigate how the effects of real exchange rate changes are projected on the Turkish economy by focusing on the GDP and its subcomponents. As a result it is found that a real appreciation increases GDP, private machinery and equipment investment, and inventory, but decreases private building construction, and there is no effect on other components including consumption

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange rate, economic effect, production, consumption, investment

Kaynakça

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