Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 177 - 198, 01.06.2009

Cevat Bilgin Ahmet Şahbaz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1987–2007 dönemi için aylık veriler kullanarak Türkiye’de ihracat ile büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri araştırmaktır. Bir diğer ifadeyle, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi test edilmektedir. Aylık bazda seriler dolayısıyla gayri safi yurt içi hasıla yerine sanayi üretim endeksi kullanılmaktadır. Birim kök testleri sonucunda aynı dereceden bütünleşik oldukları tespit edilen ihracat, ithalat, dış ticaret hadleri ve sanayi üretim endeksi değişkenleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi çerçevesinde değerlendirilmektedir. Test edilen uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığına bağlı olarak, hata düzeltme modeli (VECM) tahmin edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin yönünü belirlemek amacıyla hata düzeltme modeline bağlı Granger nedensellik testleri ve Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından tanımlanan dönüştürülmüş Wald (MWALD) testleri uygulanmaktadır. Toda ve Yamamoto yöntemine göre, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini destekleyecek bir şekilde, ihracattan sanayi üretim endeksine doğru tek yönlü Granger nedensellik olgusu gözlemlenmiştir. Bunun dışında, ihracat ile dış ticaret hadleri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracata dayalı büyüme, Johansen Eşbütünleşme, Granger nedenselliği, dönüştürülmüş Wald testi

Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey

Öz

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2007 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export-led growth, Johansen co-integration, Granger causality, modified Wald test

Kaynakça

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