Financial Bubble Experiences Quarterly in the Two A5 Countries since 1990: Indonesia and Malaysia

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 331 - 376, 31.07.2018

Cengiz Samur

Öz

“A5
countries” term means those: Indonesia, S. Korea (Korean Republic), Malaysia,
Philippines, and Thailand. Also these countries are mentioned as “Asian
Tiggers” on literature. Moreover, they was at the core of 1997/8 Asian economic
crisis. They have experienced the crisis most severly and they have been
exposed with the most damage.

It
is devised two study to examine the financial bubbles happened in the A5
countries, as quarterly. The period, method, and formulas is the same in both
studies. The first of them is going to be about bubbles in 3 countries (in S.
Korea, Philippines, Thailand), whereas the second is going to be about bubbles
in other two countries (Indonesia and Malaysia). This is second of them.

In
this study the financial bubbles occurred since 1990 in two countries  (Indonesia and Malaysia) from A5 are
scrutinized in according to quarters. They were looked at the bubbles and
bubble burst cases as quarters. They were defined, as amprical, in the basic of
quarter datas. So, the quarter datas are used.

In
the theoric frame and in aspect of the country, bubble is a situation such as
that “the change (rise) in financial
assets price composed-average- index exceeds total amount of inflation and
economic growth rates, too much.” On the other hand, bubble burst is “too severe decline in financial asset price
composed index.” This definition is based on that “it is natural to change
in asset price index level as much as sum of inflation and economic growth
rate.” In normal, it is necessary to rise at financial assets price index as
equal as total of inflation and economic growth rate. Also, as simetrically
asset price composed index must decline only as severe as decrease exhibited by
the sum of them. Otherwise, the situation is always an instability in aspect to
financial markets.

About
the deviation in the assets price index; (i) as the bubble is defined, the
criterium is 25%, and (ii) as the bubble burst is defined, the criterium is
20%, in comparison with the sum of inflation and growth rate.

Financial
bubbles are too severe threats in respect of the country due to the fact that:
when the bubble bursts appear, general reliance on economics of the country may
collapse. Consequently, it may cause financial fund to run out financial sector
and the country. Thus, it may lead to a financial crisis, e.g., a currency or
banking crisis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

financial bubble, bubble burst, Indonesia, Malaysia

1990 SONRASINDA İKİ A5 ÜLKESİNDE ÇEYREK DÖNEMLER İTİBARIYLE FİNANSAL KABARCIK TECRÜBELERİ: ENDONEZYA ve MALEZYA ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

A5 ülkeleri 5 Asya ülkesini ifade etmektedir: Endonezya, G. Kore, Malezya, Filipinler, Tayland. Bu ülkeler literatüre Asya Kaplanları diye geçmişlerdir. Diğer taraftan 1997/8 Asya ekonomik krizinin beşiği olup kalbinde yer almışlardır. Krizi en şiddetli şekilde tecrübe etmiş, en büyük hasara uğramış ülkelerdir. A5 ülkelerinde finansal kabarcıkları “çeyrekler itibarıyle” ele almak üzere 2 çalışma tasavvur edilmiştir. Her iki çalışmada dönem, metod, formülleştirme aynı olacaktır. Çalışmalardan ilki G. Kore, Filipinler, Tayland’da kabarcıkları, ikincisi ise Endonezya ve Malezya’daki kabarcık tecrübelerini konu alacaktır. Bu çalışma ikincisidir. Kabarcıklar teorik olarak ülke açısından “finansal aktif piyasası bileşik (ortalama) fiyat endeks seviyesindeki değişmenin (% olarak) enflasyon ve büyüme oranları toplamını (%) bir hayli aşması”dır. Kabarcık patlaması “finansal aktif piyasası ortalama fiyat endeksinde çok keskin bir düşüş”tür. Bu tanım “aktif piyasası nominal ortalama fiyat endeksinin enflasyon ve büyüme oranları kadar değişmesinin tabiî olduğunu” esas almaktadır. Sözkonusu endeks seviyesi, normalde ancak “büyüme ve enflasyon oranları toplamı kadar” yükselmelidir. Simetrik şekilde büyüme ve enflasyon oranları toplamı ne kadar düşmüşse o ölçüde düşmelidir. Aksine haller finansal piyasalar açısından bir istikrarsızlıktır. Büyüme ve enflasyon oranları toplamına nazaran finansal aktif piyasası fiyat endeksindeki sapma hususunda; kabarcık tanımlanırken %25 ve patlama tanımlanırken %20 kıstas alınmıştır. Finansal kabarcıklar; ülke ekonomisi bakımından kuvvetli bir tehdittir. Zirâ kabarcık patlamaları meydana geldiği takdirde ülke ekonomisine duyulan genel güven büyük bir darbe alabilir, finansal sektörden ve ülkeden finansal fon kaçışına, böylece meselâ para ya da bankacılık krizi gibi finansal krizlere götürebilir. Çalışmada A5 ülkelerinden Endonezya ve Malezya’da 1990 sonrasında finansal kabarcıklar konu alınmıştır. Kabarcıklara “çeyrekler” itibarıyle yaklaşılmış, kabarcık oluşumu ve patlaması vakaları ampirik olarak çeyrekler temelinde tanımlanmıştır. Çalışmada çeyrek verileri kullanılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Malezya, Finansal Kabarcık, Kabarcık Patlaması, Finansal İstikrarsızlık Hipotezi (FİH), Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi (EMH), Endonezya, Malezya

Kaynakça

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