TÜRKİYE’DE ÇEVRESEL KUZNETS EĞRİSİNİN CO2 EMİSYONU İÇİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: YUMUŞAK GEÇİŞ REGRESYON YAKLAŞIMINDAN YENİ KANITLAR

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 39, 101 - 116, 23.10.2017

Celil Aydın Ömer Esen

Öz

Bu çalışma, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (ÇKE)
hipotezinin Türkiye için ne kadar geçerli ve uygulanabilir olabildiğini incelemektedir.
ÇKE’nin geçerliliği  1971-2014 dönemi
için kişi başına karbondioksit (CO₂) emisyonu ve kişi başına GSYİH
veri seti kullanılarak yumuşak geçiş regresyon modeli ile test edilmiştir.
Elde edilen bulgular,
çevresel kirliliğin kalkınmanın
ilk evrelerinde ekonomik büyümeyle birlikte yükselme eğiliminde olduğunu
göstermektedir. Gelir, belirli
bir eşik seviyesini (8,022 $) aştıktan sonra ise kirlilik artış oranı yavaşlamakta
ancak daha fazla büyüme ile birlikte düşüş göstermemektedir. Tahmin sonuçları, belirli
bir gelir düzeyinden itibaren çevresel koşullarda iyileşmelerin
gözlenebileceğini ifade eden EKC hipotezinin varlığını destekleyecek kanıtlar
sunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma, gelir düzeyi ile çevresel kirlilik arasındaki
ilişkinin birçok faktöre bağlı olduğunu ve bu nedenle ekonomik büyümenin tek
başına çevre sorunlarını çözemediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu araştırma
bulguları, hem politika yapıcılar ve araştırmacılara çevresel kirliliği
gidermek için bir rehber olarak hem de uzun vadede Türkiye'nin sürdürülebilir
büyümesini sağlamak için bir politika önerisi olarak yararlı olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrusal Olmama, CO2 Emisyonu, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi

THE VALIDITY OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE HYPOTHESIS FOR CO2 EMISSIONS IN TURKEY: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SMOOTH TRANSITION REGRESSION APPROACH

Öz

This study examines to what extent the
Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis may be valid and applicable for
Turkey. In the present paper, we employ a smooth transition regression (STR)
model to test validity of the EKC hypothesis, using a dataset of carbon dioxide
(CO₂) emission per capita and GDP per capita over the period of
1971–2014. The environmental pollution tends to rise with economic growth in
the early stages of development. After exceeding a turning point of income
($8,022), it smoothly slows down but does not decline with further growth. Estimation
results provide no evidence to support  the presence of the EKC hypothesis, which
implies that after passing a certain point, economic growth may actually be
profitable for environmental quality. This study reveals that the relationship
between income level and environmental pollution depends on many factors, and
therefore economic growth singly cannot solve environmental problems. This
research finding may be useful as a guide for policy makers and researchers to
resolve environmental pollution and as a policy recommendation to ensure
sustainable growth of Turkey in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nonlinearity, CO2 Emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve

Kaynakça

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