BRICS-T Ülkelerine Yönelik Portföy Yatırımlarının Cari Açık Üzerindeki Etkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi
Öz
Net portfolio investments through emerging market and developing economies surged from 20.3 billion dollar (2002-2004, average) to 224.5 billion dollar (2010). For the same period, current account surplus rised from 144.5 billion dollar to 334.9 billion dollar. Financial crises triggered in emerging economies showed that capital inflows intensified with financial liberalization may lead current account deficit. In this study, using panel data test, the portfolio inflows-current account relations of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and Turkey are investigated for the period 1994-2009. The empirical literature suggest that capital account causes current account deficit. The results are consistent with empirical literature revealing that portfolio inflows Granger cause current account deficit of countries in the sample. Thus, macroeconomic policies aiming at maintaining the foreign balance should be consistent with international capital flows management.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Portfolio Investments; Current Account Deficit; BRICSJEL Codes: F32 F40
Kaynakça
- BACCHETTA, P. ve WINCOOP, E. (2000), “Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility” Edwards (eds.), Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies; University of Chicago Press; 61–103.
- CASU, B. ve GIRARDONE, C. (2009), “Testing the Relationship between Competition and Efficiency in Banking: A Panel Data Analysis” Economics Letters, (105); 134-137
- CHINN, M. ve PRASAD, E. (2003), “Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration” Journal of International Economics, (59); 47–76.
- FIORDELISI, F., MARQUES-IBANEZ, D, ve MOLYNEUX P., “Efficiency and Risk in European Banking” Journal of Banking and Finance, (35); 1315-1326.
- FOROQUE, A. ve VELOCE, W. (1990), “Causality and the Structure of Canada’s Balance of Payments” Empirical Economics, (15); 267-283.
- IMF(2013), “World Economic Outlook”, Nisan 20 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2013)
- IM, K, PESERAN, M., SHIN, Y., (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, (115); 53-74.
- KIM, C. ve KIM, D. (2011), “Do Capital Inflows Cause Current Account Deficits?” Applied Economics Letters, (18); 497-500.
- LEVIN, A., LIN, C.F., CHU, C.S.J., (2002), "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties", Journal of Econometrics, (108); 1-24.
- LEE, L. ve WANG, K. (2012), “Capital Mobility and Current Account Imbalance: Nonlinear Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach” International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, 38(2); 182-217.
- MOHAN, R. ve KAPUR, M. (2010), “Liberalization and Regulation of Capital Flows: Lessons for Emerging Market Economies” Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper, (No.186).
- MORANDE, F.G. (1988), “Domestic Currency Appreciation and Foreign Capital Inflows: What Comes First?” Journal of International Money and finance, (7); 447-466
- YAN, H. (2007), “Does Capital Mobility Finance or Cause a Current Account Imbalance?” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 47(1); 1-25.
- WINDMEIJER, F. (2005), “A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators” Journal of Econometrics, (126); 25-51.
- WONG, C.-H. ve CARRANZA, L. (1999), “Policy Responses to External Imbalances in
- Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results” IMF Staff Papers, 46(2); 225– 2
BRICS-T Ülkelerine Yönelik Portföy Yatırımlarının Cari Açık Üzerindeki Etkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi
Öz
Yükselen piyasa ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilere yönelik net portföy yatırımları, 2002-2004 döneminde ortalama 20.3 milyar dolardan 2010’da 224.5 milyar dolara yükselmiştir. Aynı dönemde, cari işlemler fazlası 144.5 milyar dolardan 334.9 milyar dolara ulaşmıştır. Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde meydana gelen finansal krizler, finansal serbestleşmeyle birlikte hızla artan sermaye girişlerinin cari açığa yol açabildiğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, BRICS (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin, Güney Afrika) ve Türkiye’de portföy girişleri-cari açık ilişkisi 1994-2009 dönemi için panel veri seti kullanılarak incelenmektir. Literatürde, finans hesabının cari açığa neden olduğu görüşü hakimdir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, literatürü desteklemekte ve ele alınan ülkelerde portföy girişlerinin cari açığın Granger nedeni olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Dolayısıyla, dış dengeyi sağlamak amacıyla uygulanan makroekonomik politikalar, aynı zamanda uluslararası sermaye akımlarının yönetimiyle doğrudan ilişkilendirilmelidir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Portföy Yatırımları; Cari Açık; BRICSJEL Sınıflandırma: F32 F40
Kaynakça
- BACCHETTA, P. ve WINCOOP, E. (2000), “Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility” Edwards (eds.), Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies; University of Chicago Press; 61–103.
- CASU, B. ve GIRARDONE, C. (2009), “Testing the Relationship between Competition and Efficiency in Banking: A Panel Data Analysis” Economics Letters, (105); 134-137
- CHINN, M. ve PRASAD, E. (2003), “Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration” Journal of International Economics, (59); 47–76.
- FIORDELISI, F., MARQUES-IBANEZ, D, ve MOLYNEUX P., “Efficiency and Risk in European Banking” Journal of Banking and Finance, (35); 1315-1326.
- FOROQUE, A. ve VELOCE, W. (1990), “Causality and the Structure of Canada’s Balance of Payments” Empirical Economics, (15); 267-283.
- IMF(2013), “World Economic Outlook”, Nisan 20 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2013)
- IM, K, PESERAN, M., SHIN, Y., (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, (115); 53-74.
- KIM, C. ve KIM, D. (2011), “Do Capital Inflows Cause Current Account Deficits?” Applied Economics Letters, (18); 497-500.
- LEVIN, A., LIN, C.F., CHU, C.S.J., (2002), "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties", Journal of Econometrics, (108); 1-24.
- LEE, L. ve WANG, K. (2012), “Capital Mobility and Current Account Imbalance: Nonlinear Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach” International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, 38(2); 182-217.
- MOHAN, R. ve KAPUR, M. (2010), “Liberalization and Regulation of Capital Flows: Lessons for Emerging Market Economies” Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper, (No.186).
- MORANDE, F.G. (1988), “Domestic Currency Appreciation and Foreign Capital Inflows: What Comes First?” Journal of International Money and finance, (7); 447-466
- YAN, H. (2007), “Does Capital Mobility Finance or Cause a Current Account Imbalance?” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 47(1); 1-25.
- WINDMEIJER, F. (2005), “A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators” Journal of Econometrics, (126); 25-51.
- WONG, C.-H. ve CARRANZA, L. (1999), “Policy Responses to External Imbalances in
- Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results” IMF Staff Papers, 46(2); 225– 2
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Nisan 2014 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2014 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1 |
