KIRGIZİSTAN’DA DIŞ TİCARETİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2014, Sayı: 63, 12 - 18, 01.05.2014

Damira Baygonuşova Nurlan Atabaev Junus Ganiev

Öz

This study analyzed the impact of export and import to GDP in Kyrgyzstan by using regression analysis with annual data for the period of 1998-2012 divided in commodity groups. The impact of raw materials’, energy sources’, consumer goods’, capital goods’ and intermediate goods’ foreign trade were analyzed individually. The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between import of intermediate goods, consumer goods and GDP, and a negative correlation between investment goods’ import and GDP. On the other hand, positive, statistically significant relationship was found between export of intermediate goods, raw materials, capital goods and GDP. These results show that current Kyrgyz economy is similar to economy with “Dutch disease”. To get out of this situation we need to define relatively advantageous agricultural and industrial sectors, and to conduct the necessary policies for their development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ihracat, ithalat, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, Kırgızistan

IMPACT OF FOREIGN TRADE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KYRGYZSTAN

Öz

This study analyzed the impact of export and import to GDP in Kyrgyzstan by using regression analysis with annual data for the period of 1998-2012 divided in commodity groups. The impact of raw materials’, energy sources’, consumer goods’, capital goods’ and intermediate goods’ foreign trade were analyzed individually. The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between import of intermediate goods, consumer goods and GDP, and a negative correlation between investment goods’ import and GDP. On the other hand, positive, statistically significant relationship was found between export of intermediate goods, raw materials, capital goods and GDP. These results show that current Kyrgyz economy is similar to economy with “Dutch disease”. To get out of this situation we need to define relatively advantageous agricultural and industrial sectors, and to conduct the necessary policies for their development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

export, import, gross domestic product, Kyrgyzstan

ВЛИЯНИЕ ВНЕШНЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ КЫРГЫЗСТАНА

Öz

В статье приведен анализ влияния экспорта и импорта на ВВП в Кыргызстане. Использован регрессионный анализ с годовыми данными за период 1998-2012. Результаты показали, что существует положительная связь между импортом промежуточных товаров, товаров народного потребления и ВВП, а также отрицательная корреляция между импортом инвестиционных товаров и ВВП. С другой стороны, положительная, статистически значимая связь была обнаружена между экспортом промежуточных товаров, сырья, средств производства и ВВП. Эти результаты показывают, что нынешняя экономика страны поражена «голландской болезнью». Для оздоровления экономики предлагается развивать приоритетные секторы реальной экономики.

Anahtar Kelimeler

экспорт, импорт, валовой внутренний продукт, Кыргызстан

Kaynakça

• Abbas Sh. (2012). Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Investigating Suitable Trade Policy for Pakistan. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics 2012, 5 (10), 91-98.
• Baldwin R.E. (2000). Trade and Growth: Still Disagreement About The Relationships. Economics Department Workıng Papers No. 264. OECD.
• Engle, Robert F. & Clive W.J. Granger, (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica 55, pp. 251-276.
• Grossman H. (1991). Trade, innovation and growth. American Economic Review, Vol.80, 86-91.
• Güngör B. ve Kurt S. (2007). Dışa Açıklık ve Kalkınma İlişkisi (1968-2003): Türkiye Örneği. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 197-210.
• Hatemi-j, A. (2002). Export Performance & Economic Growth Nexus in Japan: a Bootstrap Approach. Japan and World Economy, 14, 25-33.
• Kadı F. (2006). Büyümenin İtici Gücü Olarak Dış Ticaret: Kırgızistan Örneği. (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Kırgızistan-Türkiye “Manas” Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı. Bişkek. 232 sayfa.
• Pistoresi B. and Rinaldi A. (2011). Exports, growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004. The Economic History Society Annual Conference, University of Cambridge, 1-3 April 2011.
• http://www.ehs.org.uk/dotAsset/01fc9653-2ca7-42d8-821b-88e656cd433e.doc (erişim: 22.02.2014).
• Ramos, F. F. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 18, 613-623.
• Rivera-Batiz L.A. and P.M. Romer. (1991). Economic İntegration And Endogenous Growth. The Qurterly Journal of Economics Vol.106/2, 531-555.
• Rodriguez F. and D. Rodrik (1999). Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to the Cross-Country Evidence. Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper Series, No. 2143.
• Thornton, J. (1997). Exports and economic growth: Evidence from 19th Century Europe. Economic Letters, 55, 235-240.
• Yardımcıoğlu F. ve Gülmez A. (2013). Türk Cumhurıyetleri’nde İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, Cilt: VIII Sayı: I, 145-161.