Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Yakınsaklık ve Eşbütünleşme Analizi: Türkiye Turizm Piyasaları Uygulaması

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 39, 95 - 110, 31.01.2019

Berhan Çoban Esin Firuzan

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1996-2016 yılları arasında Türkiye turizm pazarları aylık verilerini kullanarak eşbütünleşme yapısını incelemek ve yakınsaklık hipotezini test etmektir. Yakınsaklık hipotezinin tespiti için 23 önemli ülkeden Türkiye’ye gelen yabancı turist gelişleri verileri kullanılmıştır. Yabancı turist gelişleri verileri yapısal kırılma ve farklı varyanslık içermektedir. Bu özellikler birim kök ve eşbütünleşme test sonuçlarını negatif etkilemektedir. Yapısal kırılma ve farklı varyanslılığın göz ardı edilmesi yakınsak turist gelişlerinin sayısını azaltmaktadır. Yakınsaklık hipotezinin tespiti için geleneksel Dickey Fuller birim kök testi, son yıllarda geliştirilmiş Lagrange multiplier (LM) ve Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS-LM) testleri kullanılmıştır. Gregory Hansen ve RALS tabanlı eşbütünleşme testleri uzun dönemli denge ilişkisini ortaya çıkarmak için kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, Türkiye için turizm pazarlarının çoğunun yakınsak olduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar ortaya koymuştur. Bu, turizm politikaları ve stratejilerinin yakınsak turizm piyasaları için başarılı olduğu anlamına gelmektedir. Buna ek olarak, yapısal kırılma ve farklı varyanslılığın varlığında farklı turizm piyasaları arasında eşbütünleşik ilişkiler olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yakınsaklık Hipotezi, Birim Kök Testi, Turizm Piyasaları, Eşbütünleşme, Yapısal Kırılma

Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets

Öz

The purpose of this study is to examine the cointegration structure and to test the convergence hypothesis in Turkey’s tourism markets with monthly data over the period 1996-2016. To check the existence of convergence, we used international tourist arrivals to Turkey from each of Turkey’s 23 major markets. International tourist arrivals data of Turkey may comprise structural changes and volatility. These attributes may negatively affect the reliability of unit root and cointegration tests outcomes. Ignorance of volatility and breaks leads to decrease in the number of convergent tourism markets. Conventional Dickey Fuller unit root test, recently developed Lagrange multiplier (LM) and Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS-LM) tests are performed to test the existence of convergence in the tourism market. Gregory Hansen and RALS based cointegration tests are used for checking long run relationship of the tourist arrivals data. The study reveals strong evidence that most of the tourism markets for Turkey are converging. This means that tourism policies and strategies are successful for convergent tourism markets. In addition, there is some long run relationship among the different tourism markets in the presence of structural break and volatility.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Convergence Hypothesis, Unit Root test, Cointegration, Tourism Markets, Structural Breaks

Kaynakça

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