Bölgesel Güç Aktarımı ve Türkiye’nin Geleceği

Yıl 2016, Özel Sayı: Türk Dış Politikası, 23 - 46, 01.12.2016

Birol Ali Yeşilada Osman Göktuğ Tanrıkulu

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.463082

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye için bölgesel güç aktarımlarını incelemektedir. Yazarlar Türkiye’nin gelecekteki bölgesel ilişkilerini öngörebilmek için hem Güç Aktarımı hem de İnsani Kalkınma teorilerinden faydalanmışlardır. Sonuçlar Türkiye’nin AB, Rusya ve İran ile ilişkilerinde zorluklar yaşayacağını göstermektedir. Tahminler gelecekteki Türkiye-Rusya ve Türkiye-İran ilişkilerinde çatışma olasılığının yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. İran’a kıyasla Rusya ile ilişkilerde çatışma riski daha yüksek gözükmektedir. Sadece AB’ye katılma senaryosu Türkiye’nin Rusya ve İran ile çatışma riskini azaltmaktadır. AB üyeliği Türkiye’nin zorlu bölgesel ilişkilerine istikrar getirebilmektedir. Diğer taraftan, İnsani Kalkınma Dinamikleri Türkiye’nin değerler bakımından Avrupa’nın önde gelen ülkelerinden giderek uzaklaşmakta olduğunu göstermektedir. Sekülerlik zayıflamakta, geleneksel değerler güçlenmektedir. İstatistiksel modeller, değerlerdeki yakınlaşmanın entegrasyondaki önemli faktörlerden biri olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu durum Türkiye’nin AB ile entegrasyon ihtimalinin çok zayıf olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Güç Aktarımları, İnsani Kalkınma, Bölgesel Hiyerarşi, Değerler, Entegrasyon

Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey

Öz

This study analyzes the regional power transitions for Turkey. The authors utilize both the Power Transitions
Theory and the Human Development Theory to foresee Turkey’s future regional relations. The findings indicate
that Turkey’s relations with the EU, Russia and Iran will be quite challenging. According to the forecasting, the
probability of conflict between Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Iran will increase. Compared to Iran, Turkey’s propensity
of conflict with Russia will be higher. Only in a scenario of joining the EU, Turkey’s probability of conflict with
Russia and Iran decreases. EU membership stabilizes Turkey’s most challenging regional relationships. On the other
hand, Human Development Dynamics demonstrate that Turkey is moving away from major European countries in
terms of values, becoming less secular and more traditional. Our statistical models display that value convergence is
a significant factor in integration, indicating that the likelihood of Turkey’s European integration is slim.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Power Transitions, Human Development, Regional Hierarchy, Values, Integration

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