ALTIN FİYATI GÜNLÜK GETİRİLERİNİN YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI ALGORİTMASI VE MARKOV ZİNCİRLERİ MODELLERİ İLE TAHMİNİ

Yıl 2018, 18. EYİ Özel Sayısı, 681 - 694, 20.01.2018

Salih Çam Süleyman Bilgin Kılıç

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.347048

Cited By: 5

Öz

Son
on yılda altın fiyatları ile ilgili birçok çalışma yapılmıştır. Literatürdeki ilgili
çalışmalar yapay sinir ağları algoritması ve Markov zincirleri modellerinin
altın piyasası gelecek tahmininde oldukça iyi sonuçlar ürettiklerini
göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada yapay sinir ağları algoritması ve Markov
zincirleri modellerinin güçlü yönleri birlikte kullanılarak altın fiyatlarının günlük
getirileri tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin süreci, iki aşamada gerçekleştirilmiştir.
İlk aşamada altın fiyatlarının günlük getirileri, en iyi tahmin performansına
sahip yapay sinir ağları algoritması ile tahmin edilmiştir. İkinci aşamada ise yapay
sinir ağlarından elde edilen tahmini altın getirileri üzerinden yüksek
dereceden Markov zincirleri geçiş olasılıkları matrisleri hesaplanmıştır. Tahmin,
üçüncü dereceden ve dördüncü dereceden Markov zincirleri modelleri ile yapay
sinir ağları algoritması birlikte kullanılarak yapılmıştır ve uygulanan tahmin
yöntemi sonucunda altın fiyatları getirilerinin gelecek tahmininde %70’i bulan başarı
sağlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yapay Sinir Ağları, Markov Zincirleri Modelleri, Altın Fiyatları

PREDICTION OF DAILY GOLD PRICE RETURNS WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND MARKOV CHAINS MODELS

Öz

During the last
decade, there have been many studies on the prediction
of gold prices. Artificial neural networks algorithm and Markov chains models
perform fairly well in the prediction of gold prices. In this study, the daily
returns of gold prices were estimated by using the powerful aspects of the
artificial neural network algorithm and the Markov chains models. The
prediction was made in two stages. In the first stage, the daily return series
of gold prices were estimated by the artificial neural network algorithm which has
the best prediction performance. In the second stage, the transition
probabilities matrixes of high order Markov chains models were calculated from
the estimated values that obtained from the artificial neural networks.  The third order and the fourth order Markov
chains models and the artificial neural networks algorithm were used jointly
for prediction. In consequence of the applied methodology, about 70% success of
prediction was achieved in the future prediction of the gold prices’ returns.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Artificial Neural Network, Markov Chains Models, Gold Price

Kaynakça

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