Year 2019, Volume 8, Issue 2, Pages 205 - 230 2019-07-01

An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Özgür Özdamar [1]

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This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to explore their application to a specific research subject, international bargaining on Iran’s nuclear program. In this application, the article presents forecasts about Iran’s nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue. The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program. 

Expected utility theory, game theory, dynamic median voter model with coercion, forecasting, Iran, nuclear program, the Middle East
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Primary Language en
Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Author: Özgür Özdamar

Dates

Publication Date: July 1, 2019

Bibtex @research article { allazimuth476858, journal = {All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace}, issn = {2146-7757}, address = {Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation}, year = {2019}, volume = {8}, pages = {205 - 230}, doi = {10.20991/allazimuth.476858}, title = {An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program}, key = {cite}, author = {Özdamar, Özgür} }
APA Özdamar, Ö . (2019). An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace, 8 (2), 205-230. DOI: 10.20991/allazimuth.476858
MLA Özdamar, Ö . "An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program". All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 8 (2019): 205-230 <http://dergipark.org.tr/allazimuth/issue/42171/476858>
Chicago Özdamar, Ö . "An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program". All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 8 (2019): 205-230
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program AU - Özgür Özdamar Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.20991/allazimuth.476858 DO - 10.20991/allazimuth.476858 T2 - All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 205 EP - 230 VL - 8 IS - 2 SN - 2146-7757- M3 - doi: 10.20991/allazimuth.476858 UR - https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program %A Özgür Özdamar %T An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program %D 2019 %J All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace %P 2146-7757- %V 8 %N 2 %R doi: 10.20991/allazimuth.476858 %U 10.20991/allazimuth.476858
ISNAD Özdamar, Özgür . "An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program". All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace 8 / 2 (July 2019): 205-230. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.476858
AMA Özdamar Ö . An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace. 2019; 8(2): 205-230.
Vancouver Özdamar Ö . An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace. 2019; 8(2): 230-205.