BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

KAMU BORÇLARININ MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1, 67 - 79, 27.11.2010

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’ye ait 1989:01-2004:03 dönemlerini
kapsayan aylık verilerle kamu borçlarının makroekonomik etkileri
incelenmektedir. Analizde Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) modelden elde edilen
varyans ayrıştırması (variance decomposition) ve etki-tepki (impulse-response)
fonksiyonu kullanılmıştır.
Kamu borçlarının makroekonomik etkileri iç borçların faiz haddi, fiyatlar ve
üretim üzerindeki etkisi incelenerek belirlenmiştir. Analizden elde edilen sonuçlar,
kamu borçlarındaki artışın faiz haddi ve fiyatlarda düşmeye neden olduğunu
göstermektedir. Analizde, kamu borçlarının üretim üzerindeki etkisi bulunamamıştır.
Analizden elde edilen sonuçlar Ricardacu Denklik Hipotezi’ni desteklemektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Alper, C.E ve M. Ucer (1998). “Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A 'Random Walk' Down the Past Decade,” Bogazici Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12, 1, ss.7-38.
  • Akbostancı, E. ve Tunç A. I. (2001): “Turkish Twin Deficits: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance”, Middle East Technical University ERCenter Working Paper/2001series/0106
  • Aschauer, David A (1985). "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, 75, 1, ss.117-27.
  • Ata, A. Y. ve F. Yücel (2003). “Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Restleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması,” Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt:12, Sayı:12, ss.97-109.
  • Barro, Robert J (1974). "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, 82, 6, ss.1095-117.
  • Beard, Thomas R. ve McMillin, W. Douglas (1991). "The Impact of Budget Deficits in the Interwar Period," Journal of Macroeconomics, 13, 2, ss.239-66.
  • Bilgili, E. ve Bilgili, F. (1998); “Bütçe Açıklarının Cari işlem Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Teori ve Uygulama”, İşletme/İktisat ve Finans Dergisi, 13, Sayı. 146. Ek. ss.4-16.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1989) "Fiscal Deficits and Long-Term Interest Rates: Further Evidence from Annual Data," Southern Economic Journal, 56, 2, ss.363-74.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1990). "Structural Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: Some Causality and Co-Integration Tests," Southern Economic Journal, 56, 3, ..752-59.
  • Dwyer, Gerald P. (1982). “Inflation and Government Deficits,” Economic Inquiry, 20, 3, ss.315-29.
  • Evans, Paul (1985). "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, 75, 1, ss.68-87.
  • Evans, Paul (1987). "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, 95, 1, ss.34-58.
  • Fackler, James S. ve McMillin, W. Douglas (1989). "Federal Debt and Macroeconomic Activity," Southern Economic Journal, 55, 4, ss.994-1003.
  • Feldstein, Martin (1982). "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, 9, 1, ss.1-20.
  • Hoelscher, Gregory (1983). "Federal Borrowing and Short-Term Interest Rates," Southern Economic Journal, 50, 2, ss.319-33.
  • Kochin, Levis (1974). "Are Future Taxes Anticipated by Consumers?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 6, 3, ss.385-94.
  • Kormendi, Roger C. (1983) "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, 73, 5, ss.994-1010.
  • Makin, John H. (1983) "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," Review of Economics and Statistics, 65, 3, ss.374-84.
  • McMillin, W. Douglas (1986a). "Federal Deficits, Macrostabilization Goals, and Federal Reserve Behavior," Economic Inquiry, 24, 2, ss.257- 69.
  • McMillin, W. Douglas (1986b). "Federal Deficits and Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, 8, 4, ss.403-22.
  • Miller, Stephen M. ve Russek, Frank S. (1996) "Do Federal Deficits Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from Three Econometric Methods," Journal of Macroeconomics, 18, 3, ss.403-28.
  • Plosser, Charles I. (1982) "Government Financing Decisions and Asset Returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, 9, 3, ss.325-52.
  • Seater, John J. ve Mariano, Roberto S. (1985) "New Tests of the Life Cycle and Tax Discounting Hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, 2, ss.195-215.
  • Swamy, Paravastu A. V. B., Kolluri, Bharat R. ve Singamsetti, Rao N. (1990). "What Do Regressions of Interest Rates on Deficits Imply?," Southern Economic Journal, 56, 4, ss.1010-28.
  • Tanner, J. Ernest (1979). "An Empirical Investigation of Tax Discounting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11, 2, ss.214-18.
  • Yawitz, Jess B.ve Meyer, Laurence H. (1976) "An Empirical Test of the Extent of Tax Discounting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 8, 2, ss.247-54.
  • Yılmaz, A. (1993); “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye Örneğine Uygulanması”, yayınlanmamış master tezi, Bilkent Üniversitesi.
  • Wheeler, Mark (1999). “The Macroeconomic Impacts of Government Debt: An Empirical Analysis of the 1980s and 1990s,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 27, 3, ss.273-284.
  • Zengin, A. (2000); “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Gazi Üniversitesi, C.2, S.35, ss.37-67. Notlar i
  • X-11 mevsimsel düzeltme yöntemi Eviews 4.1 ekonometri programı ile yapılmıştır. Bu
  • yöntemin Türkiye verilerine uygulandığı çalışma için Bkz. Alper ve Uçer (1998:7-38) ve REH’e
  • uygulandığı çalışma için Bkz. Wheeler (1999:273-284)
Yıl 2005, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1, 67 - 79, 27.11.2010

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Alper, C.E ve M. Ucer (1998). “Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A 'Random Walk' Down the Past Decade,” Bogazici Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12, 1, ss.7-38.
  • Akbostancı, E. ve Tunç A. I. (2001): “Turkish Twin Deficits: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance”, Middle East Technical University ERCenter Working Paper/2001series/0106
  • Aschauer, David A (1985). "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, 75, 1, ss.117-27.
  • Ata, A. Y. ve F. Yücel (2003). “Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Restleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması,” Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt:12, Sayı:12, ss.97-109.
  • Barro, Robert J (1974). "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, 82, 6, ss.1095-117.
  • Beard, Thomas R. ve McMillin, W. Douglas (1991). "The Impact of Budget Deficits in the Interwar Period," Journal of Macroeconomics, 13, 2, ss.239-66.
  • Bilgili, E. ve Bilgili, F. (1998); “Bütçe Açıklarının Cari işlem Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Teori ve Uygulama”, İşletme/İktisat ve Finans Dergisi, 13, Sayı. 146. Ek. ss.4-16.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1989) "Fiscal Deficits and Long-Term Interest Rates: Further Evidence from Annual Data," Southern Economic Journal, 56, 2, ss.363-74.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1990). "Structural Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: Some Causality and Co-Integration Tests," Southern Economic Journal, 56, 3, ..752-59.
  • Dwyer, Gerald P. (1982). “Inflation and Government Deficits,” Economic Inquiry, 20, 3, ss.315-29.
  • Evans, Paul (1985). "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, 75, 1, ss.68-87.
  • Evans, Paul (1987). "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, 95, 1, ss.34-58.
  • Fackler, James S. ve McMillin, W. Douglas (1989). "Federal Debt and Macroeconomic Activity," Southern Economic Journal, 55, 4, ss.994-1003.
  • Feldstein, Martin (1982). "Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, 9, 1, ss.1-20.
  • Hoelscher, Gregory (1983). "Federal Borrowing and Short-Term Interest Rates," Southern Economic Journal, 50, 2, ss.319-33.
  • Kochin, Levis (1974). "Are Future Taxes Anticipated by Consumers?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 6, 3, ss.385-94.
  • Kormendi, Roger C. (1983) "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, 73, 5, ss.994-1010.
  • Makin, John H. (1983) "Real Interest, Money Surprises, Anticipated Inflation and Fiscal Deficits," Review of Economics and Statistics, 65, 3, ss.374-84.
  • McMillin, W. Douglas (1986a). "Federal Deficits, Macrostabilization Goals, and Federal Reserve Behavior," Economic Inquiry, 24, 2, ss.257- 69.
  • McMillin, W. Douglas (1986b). "Federal Deficits and Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, 8, 4, ss.403-22.
  • Miller, Stephen M. ve Russek, Frank S. (1996) "Do Federal Deficits Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from Three Econometric Methods," Journal of Macroeconomics, 18, 3, ss.403-28.
  • Plosser, Charles I. (1982) "Government Financing Decisions and Asset Returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, 9, 3, ss.325-52.
  • Seater, John J. ve Mariano, Roberto S. (1985) "New Tests of the Life Cycle and Tax Discounting Hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, 2, ss.195-215.
  • Swamy, Paravastu A. V. B., Kolluri, Bharat R. ve Singamsetti, Rao N. (1990). "What Do Regressions of Interest Rates on Deficits Imply?," Southern Economic Journal, 56, 4, ss.1010-28.
  • Tanner, J. Ernest (1979). "An Empirical Investigation of Tax Discounting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11, 2, ss.214-18.
  • Yawitz, Jess B.ve Meyer, Laurence H. (1976) "An Empirical Test of the Extent of Tax Discounting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 8, 2, ss.247-54.
  • Yılmaz, A. (1993); “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye Örneğine Uygulanması”, yayınlanmamış master tezi, Bilkent Üniversitesi.
  • Wheeler, Mark (1999). “The Macroeconomic Impacts of Government Debt: An Empirical Analysis of the 1980s and 1990s,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 27, 3, ss.273-284.
  • Zengin, A. (2000); “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Gazi Üniversitesi, C.2, S.35, ss.37-67. Notlar i
  • X-11 mevsimsel düzeltme yöntemi Eviews 4.1 ekonometri programı ile yapılmıştır. Bu
  • yöntemin Türkiye verilerine uygulandığı çalışma için Bkz. Alper ve Uçer (1998:7-38) ve REH’e
  • uygulandığı çalışma için Bkz. Wheeler (1999:273-284)
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil tr;en
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ahmet Çetin Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Kasım 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2005 Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Çetin, A. (2010). KAMU BORÇLARININ MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 19(1), 67-79.

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