Modeling of Temporal and Spatial Changes of Land Cover and Land Use by Artificial Neural Networks: Kastamonu Sample

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 3, 653 - 663, 15.12.2018

Samet Doğan Ender Buğday

Öz

Currently, it is very important to identify and
use the most appropriate methods in the management of limited resources and to
reach a conclusion in a short time period by using the technology in an
effective manner to fastly obtain information in high quality. Remote sensing (RS)
techniques are used as a very effective tool for this purpose. Obtaining
information about various parameters without direct contact with the objects
provides advantages in terms of both time and cost. RS technologies are used in
various different disciplines. One of the most important application areas
where these technologies are used is to monitor urban development by the help
of the satellite images. Determination of urban land use in detail is important
for decision-makers, planners, practitioners and researchers to conduct
effective planning activities. In this study the change in land cover and land
use between the years of 1999 and 2016 in the central district of Kastamonu was
investigated; land use and exchange groups were formed. First, satellite images
of the study area were classified by controlled classification method and their
accuracy was calculated. The classified satellite images are used to model the
probable land area, its usage and changes in 2033 by using Artificial Neural
Networks (ANN) approach. According to this, changes in the field between the
years of 1999 and 2016 are given as follows; 7.8% decrease for forest areas,
10.8% increase for water areas, 13.9% decrease for agricultural areas and 10.9%
increase for construction areas. Based on the results, it was thought that it
is a feasible and practical tool to determine the change of land cover and land
use to predict the course of the future. The ANN approach used in this study is
predicted to become an important decision support system for planners and
decision makers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing, Land Cover/Land Use, Artificial Neural Networks

Arazi Örtüsü ve Kullanımının Zamansal ve Mekânsal Değişiminin Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Modellenmesi: Kastamonu Örneği

Öz

Sınırlı olan doğal kaynakların yönetiminde en
uygun yöntemleri tespit etmek ve kullanmak, teknolojinin etkin kullanılmasıyla
kaliteli bilgiyle kısa zamanda sonuca ulaşmak günümüzde son derece önemlidir.
Uzaktan algılama (UA) teknikleri bu bakımdan çok etkili bir araç olarak
kullanılmaktadır. Objelerle doğrudan temas olmaksızın çeşitli parametreler
hakkında bilgiler edinmek hem zaman hem de maliyet açısından avantajlar
sağlamaktadır. UA teknolojileri birbirinden farklı birçok disiplinde
kullanılmaktadır. Bu teknolojilerin kullanıldığı en önemli uygulama
alanlarından biri de uydu görüntüleri yardımıyla kentsel gelişimin
izlenmesidir. Kentsel arazi kullanımının detaylı olarak belirlenmesi karar
vericiler, planlayıcılar, uygulayıcılar ve araştırmacılar için etkili planlama
faaliyetleri yürütebilmeleri açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Kastamonu ili
merkez ilçesine ait 1999 - 2016 yılları arasındaki arazi örtüsü ve arazi kullanımının
değişimi incelenmiş; arazi kullanımı ve değişimi grupları oluşturulmuştur. Öncelikle
çalışma alanına ait uydu görüntüleri kontrolsüz sınıflandırma metoduyla
sınıflandırılmış ve doğruluk dereceleri hesaplanmıştır. Sınıflandırılan uydu
görüntüleri Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) yaklaşımı ile çalışma alanının 2033
yılındaki muhtemel arazi örüsü, kullanımı ve değişimi modellenmiştir. Buna göre
çalışma alanında 1999 yılı ile 2016 yılı arasında meydana gelen değişim;
ormanlık alanlar için %7.8 azalma, su alanları için %10.8 artma, tarım alanları
için %13.9 azalma ve yapılaşma alanları için %10.9 artma şeklinde gerçekleştiği
tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar ile arazi örtüsü ve arazi kullanımı
değişiminin tespit edilmesi ve gelecekte nasıl bir seyir izleyeceğinin tahmin
edilebilmesi için uygulanabilir pratik bir araç olduğu düşüncesine varılmıştır.
Bu çalışmada kullanılan YSA yaklaşımının planlayıcı ve karar vericiler için
önemli bir karar destek sistemi aracı olacağı öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri, Uzaktan Algılama, Arazi Örtüsü/Arazi Kullanımı, Yapay Sinir Ağları

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