Centennial Decline of Shipping Freight Rates and Life Cycle Effect: Theory of Long Term Cycle

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 59 - 77, 01.06.2011

Okan Duru Shigeru Yoshıda

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

-

Centennial Decline of Shipping Freight Rates and Life Cycle Effect: Theory of Long Term Cycle

Öz

Bu çalışma dünya deniz ticaretinde navlun fiyatlarının 19. yüzyılda yaşamış olduğu yüzyıllık düşüşün sebeblerini incelemektedir. Son 300 yıl içerisinde deniz ticaretinde en derin ve tarihi bir daralmanın gerçekleşmiş olması nedeniyle, 19.yüzyıl deniz ulaştırma tarihinde hususi bir yere sahiptir. Bir çok araştırmacı bu dönemi incelemiş ve uzun dönem düşüşün muhtemel nedenleri hakkında çeşitli teoriler ortaya atılmıştır. Değerlendirmelerin büyük çoğunluğu teknolojik gelişmeler ve onların ikincil etkileri üzerine yoğunlaşmaktadır. Ancak, 20. yüzyıl insanlık tarihinde teknolojik gelişmeler noktasında 19. yüzyıla nazaran çok daha geniş kapsamlı bir dönem olup, bir önceki yüzyılda deniz ticaretine olan etkileri yönündeki değerlendirmelere karşın, navlun fiyatları tarihi bir çıkış trendi yakalamıştır. Bu çalışma önceki tespitleri incelemekte ve özgün olarak ‘yaşam döngüsü’ teorisinin bu çerçevedeki uzun dönem etkilerini değerlendirmektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Navlun fiyatları, ortalama yaşam süresi, ekonomi tarihi

Kaynakça

• Akaike, H. (1973). Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principal. In: Petrov, B.N., Csaki, F. (eds.), the 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, Akademia Kiado, Budapest, pp. 267–281.
• Angier, E. A. V. (1920). Fifty Years’ Freights, 1869-1919, Fairplay, London.
• Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and growth, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 1(1), pp. 1-27.
• Bloom, D. E. and Sachs, J. D. (1998). Geography, demography, and economic growth in Africa, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Part 2, pp. 207-273.
• Bloom, D. E. and Canning, D. (1999). The health and wealth of nations, Workshop of the U.K. Department for International Development and the World Health Organisation.
• Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Sevilla J. (2004). The Effect of health on economic growth: a production function approach, World Development, Vol. 32, pp. 1–13.
• Brown, P.H. and Hopkins, S.V. (1956). Seven centuries of the prices of consumables, compared with builders’ wage-rates, Economica, Vol. 23, pp. 296– 315.
• Durbin, J., and Watson, G. S. (1950). Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression, I., Biometrika, Vol. 37, pp. 409–428.
• Durbin, J., and Watson, G. S. (1951). Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression, II.. Biometrika, Vol. 38, pp. 159–179.
• Duru, O. and Yoshida, S. (2010). Long term freight market index and inferences, Journal of Logistics and Shipping Economics, Vol. 44, pp. 39-48.
• Fama, E. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work, Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, pp. 383-417.
• Harley, C.K. (1988). Ocean freight rates and productivity, 1740–1913: the primacy of mechanical invention reaffirmed, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 48, pp. 851–876.
• Harley, C.K. (1989). Coal exports and British shipping, 1850–1913, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 26, pp. 311–338.
• Isserlis, L. (1938). Tramp shipping cargoes, and freights, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 101, pp. 53–134.
• Jacks, D. S. (2005), Intra- and International Commodity Market Integration in the Atlantic Economy, 1800-1913. Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 42(3), pp. 381-413.
• Jacks, D.S., Meissner, C.M. and Dennis, N. (2009). Trade costs in the first wave of globalization, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 47(2), pp. 127-141.
• Hummels, D. (1999). Have International Transportation Costs Declined?, Working Paper, University of Chicago.
• Kaukiainen, Y. (2001). Shrinking the world: Improvements in the speed of information transmission, c. 1820-1870, European Review of Economic History, Vol. 5, pp. 1-28.
• Klovland, J.T. (2008). The construction of ocean freight rate indices for the mid- nineteenth century, International Journal of Maritime History, Vol. 20, pp. 1–26.
• Metaxas, B. (1971). The economics of tramp shipping. London: Athlone Press.
• Mohammed S.I.S. and Williamson J.G. (2004). Freight rates and productivity gains in British tramp shipping 1869-1950, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 41, pp. 172-203.
• Ng, S., and Perron P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power, Econometrica, Vol. 69, pp. 1519–1554.
• North D. (1958). Ocean freight rates and economic development 1750–1913, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 18, pp. 537–555.
• O’Rourke K.H. and Williamson J.G. (2002). When did globalisation begin?, European Review of Economic History, Vol. 6, pp. 23-50.
• Sachs, J. and Warner, A. (1997). Sources of slow growth in African economies, Journal of African Economics, Vol. 6, pp. 335–337.
• Schwarz, G.E. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, Vol. 6 (2), pp. 461–464.
• Stopford M. (2009). Maritime Economics. Routledge, New York.
• Wald, A. (1943). Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters when the number of observations is large, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 54, pp. 426-482.
• Yoshimura, K. (1942). Kaiun Shikyou Hendo Jijou Kanken (A view on causes of freight fluctuations), Kobe: Kobe University Press (in Japanese).