TY  - JOUR
T1  - Ata method’s performance in the M4 competition
AU  - Çapar, Sedat
AU  - Taylan Selamlar, Hanife
AU  - Yavuz, İdil
AU  - Taylan, Ali Sabri
AU  - Yapar, Güçkan
PY  - 2023
DA  - February
DO  - 10.15672/hujms.1018362
JF  - Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
PB  - Hacettepe University
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2651-477X
SP  - 268
EP  - 276
VL  - 52
IS  - 1
LA  - en
AB  - Like the previous M competitions, M4 competition resulted in great contributions to the field of forecasting. Ata method which is a new forecasting method alternative to exponential smoothing, competed in this competition with five different models. The results obtained from these five models are discussed in detail in this paper. According to various error metrics, the models perform better than their exponential smoothing based counters. Despite their simplicity, they are ranked satisfactorily high compared to the other methods. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of simple combinations of these Ata models and ARIMA are given for the M4 competition data set. The combinations work significantly better than models that are much more complex. Therefore, besides the fact that Ata models perform well alone, Ata should be considered as a candidate for being included in combinations of forecasts.
KW  - Exponential smoothing
KW  - forecasting
KW  - M4-competition
KW  - time series
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.15672/hujms.1018362
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2060714
ER  -