TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecasting Shanghai Containerized Freight Index by Using Time Series Models
AU  - Tavacıoğlu, Leyla
AU  - Koyuncu, Kaan
PY  - 2021
DA  - December
Y2  - 2021
DO  - 10.33714/masteb.1024663
JF  - Marine Science and Technology Bulletin
JO  - Mar. Sci. Tech. Bull.
PB  - Adem Yavuz SÖNMEZ
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2147-9666
SP  - 426
EP  - 434
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
LA  - en
AB  - Recently, the container shipping industry has become unpredictable due to volatility and major events affecting the maritime sector. At the same time, approaches to estimating container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have become very important. Therefore, in this paper, different time-series models have been explored that are related to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI). SMA, EWMA, and, SES, Holt Winter method are used to describe the data and model. Afterward, the Holt Winter method and SARIMA was applied to model and predict the SCFI index. MAPE, RMSE, AIC, BIC are used to measure the performances of the models and predictions. We observe that the SARIMA model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a monthly rate. Results demonstrate that the increase will continue without losing momentum.
KW  - Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
KW  - Volatility
KW  - Freight rates
KW  - SARIMA
KW  - Container
KW  - Holt Winter
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1024663
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2085400
ER  -