TY  - JOUR
T1  - Appraising the Fiscal Sustainability in a Welfare State: Evidence from Turkey
TT  - Sosyal Devlette Mali Sürdürülebilirliğe Dair Bir Değerlendirme: Türkiye Örneği
AU  - Can, Cansın Kemal
PY  - 2019
DA  - October
JF  - Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi
JO  - İSMUS - JMP
PB  - Istanbul Medeniyet University
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2547-9695
SP  - 1
EP  - 22
VL  - 4
IS  - 2
LA  - en
AB  - According to Tanzi and Schuknecht (1997), the welfare states are characterized by largeand ever-mounting fiscal deficits and public debt. Due to their shallow fiscal spaces, thedeveloping countries jeopardize their fiscal stability once they opt for running welfare statepolicies. This study gauges the degree of fiscal vulnerability in Turkey from a welfare stateperspective and aims to appraise the posture of fiscal stability under welfare state policiesby means of fiscal fragility index and causality analyses. Overall, the results indicate thatdespite exhibiting welfare state characteristics, Turkey’s fiscal stance does not reveal highlevels of fragility. The analysis of the fiscal fragility index indicates that the level of fiscalvulnerability is time-varying and during the 90s surges in the social expenditures coexistwith rising fiscal vulnerability, whereas during 2000s, the despite considerable upward movementsin social spending, the index value does not imply a deterioration in fiscal fragilityapparently thanks to prudential policies during the period. Also, causality test results revealthat there is unidirectional causality from required primary balance to real primary balanceindicating that the primary balance is used actively to restore fiscal stability. Nevertheless,in recent years, the index value exhibits a rising trend signalling a worsening fiscal posturewhich might entail an overhaul for the welfare state policies.
KW  - Fiscal Sustainability
KW  - Welfare State
KW  - Toda-Yamamoto Test
KW  - Fiscal Fragility Index
N2  - Tanzi ve Schuknecht’e (1997) göre refah devletlerinin karakteristik özellikleri arasında büyük ve sürekli artan mali açıklar ve kamu borcu yer alır ancak bu ülkeler sınırlı mali alanları nedeniyle refah devleti politikaları yürüttüklerinde bir yandan da mali istikrarlarınıtehlikeye atarlar ve mali kırılganlıkla karşılaşırlar. Bu çalışma, refah devleti perspektifindenTürkiye’de mali kırılganlığın derecesini ölçmekte ve mali kırılganlık endeksi ve nedensellikanalizleri yoluyla refah devleti politikaları çerçevesinde mali istikrarın durumunu değerlendirmeyiamaçlamaktadır. Genel olarak, sonuçlar refah devleti özellikleri sergilemesinerağmen Türkiye’nin mali duruşunun yüksek düzeyde kırılganlık göstermediğini göstermektedir.Mali kırılganlık endeksinin analizi, mali kırılganlık seviyesinin zamana göre değiştiğinive 90’lı yıllarda sosyal harcamalardaki artışların artan mali kırılganlık ile birliktevar olduğunu, 2000’li yıllarda ise sosyal harcamalardaki önemli artış hareketlerine rağmenendeks değerinin arttığını göstermektedir bu da söz konusu dönemde ihtiyatlı politikalarsayesinde mali kırılganlıkta bir bozulma gerçekleşmediği anlamına gelmektedir. Ayrıca nedenselliktesti sonuçları, faiz dışı dengenin mali istikrarı sağlamak için aktif olarak kullanıldığınıve borcu stabilize eden faiz dışı dengeden reel faiz dışı dengeye doğru tek yönlü birnedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu da hükümetin gerektiğinde faiz dışı fazlayıbir dengeleyici enstrüman olarak kullandığını göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, son yıllarda,mali kırılganlık endeksi değeri, refah devleti politikalarının revizyonunu gerektirebilecekkötüleşen bir mali durum sinyali veren bir yükseliş eğilimi sergilemektedir.
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UR  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ismus/article/1076998
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2267115
ER  -