TY - JOUR T1 - THE EFFECT OF ASSET DIVERSIFICATION ON BANK RISK – EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY TT - AKTİF ÇEŞİTLENDİRMESİNİN BANKA RİSKİNE ETKİSİ -TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ AU - Ekim Kocaman, Bade PY - 2022 DA - June JF - Ufuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi PB - Ufuk University WT - DergiPark SN - 2146-7676 SP - 94 EP - 108 VL - 11 IS - 21 LA - en AB - The main purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of asset diversification on bank risk. The relationship between diversification strategies and bank risk has been evaluated for a long time. However, there is no consensus about the relationship between asset diversification and bank risk so far. It remains inconclusive whether asset diversification has a positive or negative effect on bank risk. The opposing arguments about diversification are based on Markowitz (1952) modern portfolio theory and Jensen (1986) agency theory. In line with the modern portfolio theory, traditional banking theory suggests that if there is negative correlation between assets diversification is beneficial for banks in terms of risk. In contrast, agency theory argue that diversification strategy is not beneficial because of agency costs. As a measure for bank diversification Laeven and Levine (2007) asset diversification formula is used. Bank risk is discussed in the context of credit risk. Using quarterly data of top 10 Turkish deposit banks from 2010 to 2020, pooled OLS regression results suggest that relationship between asset diversification and risk is positive which supports agency theory and contradicts with traditional banking theory. It can be concluded that diversification is not advantageous in terms of bank risk. This analysis may provide guiding for regulators and bank managers in Turkey as well as in other developing economies. KW - Bank risk KW - Asset diversification KW - Deposit banks KW - Turkish Banking Sector N2 - Çalışmanın amacı aktif çeşitlendirmesinin banka riski üzerine etkisinin incelenmesidir. Çeşitlendirme stratejileri ile banka performansı arasındaki ilişki uzun süredir değerlendirilmektedir. Ancak, aktif çeşitlendirmesi ile banka riski arasındaki ilişki ile ilgili fikir birliğine varılamamıştır. Aktif çeşitlendirmesinin banka riski üzerinde olumlu veya olumsuz bir etkisi olduğu konusu belirsizliğini korumaktadır. Çeşitlendirme ile ilgili karşıt görüşler, Markowitz (1952) modern portföy teorisi ve Jensen (1986) vekâlet teorisine dayanmaktadır. Modern portföy teorisine paralel olarak, geleneksel bankacılık teorisi varlıklar arasında negatif korelasyon olması durumunda çeşitlendirmenin risk açısından bankalara faydalı olduğunu ifade etmektedir. Buna karşın, vekalet teorisi vekalet maliyetleri nedeniyle çeşitlendirme stratejilerinin yararlı olmadığını savunmaktadır. Banka çeşitlendirmesi ölçümü olarak Laeven and Levine (2007) aktif çeşitlendirmesi formülü kullanılmıştır. Banka riski ise kredi riski bağlamında ele alınmıştır. Türk Bankacılık Sektörü’nde faaliyet gösteren ilk 10 bankanın 2010-2020 arası çeyreklik verileri kullanılarak yapılan havuzlanmış EKK sonuçlarına göre aktif çeşitlendirmesi ile risk arasında vekâlet teorisini destekleyen ve geleneksel bankacılık teorisi ile çelişen pozitif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Çeşitlendirmenin banka riski açısından avantajlı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılabilir. Analiz sonucu Türkiye’deki ve diğer gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki düzenleyici kurumlara ve banka yöneticilerine yol gösterici olabilir. CR - Acharya, V. V., Hasan, I., & Saunders, A. (2006). Should banks be diversified? Evidence from individual bank loan portfolios. The Journal of Business, 79(3), 1355–1412. https://doi.org/10.1086/500679 CR - Amidu, M., & Wolfe, S. (2013). Does bank competition and diversification lead to greater stability? Evidence from emerging markets. Review of Development Finance, 3(3), 152-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2013.08.002 CR - Atik, M. (2019). Türk bankacılık sektöründeki faiz dışı gelirlerin banka geliri ve riski üzerindeki etkisinin ölçülmesi [Measurement of the effects of non interest income on bank revenues and the risk in the Turkish banking sector]. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (81), 271-292. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.510681 CR - Baele, L., De Jonghe, O., & Vander Vennet, R. (2007). Does the stock market value bank diversification? Journal of Banking and Finance, 31(7), 1999-2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.08.003 CR - Berger, A. N., Hasan, I., & Zhou, M. (2010). The effects of focus versus diversification on bank performance: Evidence from Chinese banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(7), 1417-1435. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X5003S312 CR - Berger, A. N., Hasan, I., Korhonen, I., & Zhou, M. (2010). Does diversification increase or decrease bank risk and performance? Evidence on diversification and the risk-return tradeoff in banking, BOFIT Discussion Papers, No. 9. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1651131 CR - Boyd, J. H., & Graham, S. L. (1986). Risk, regulation, and bank holding company expansion into nonbanking. Quarterly Review, 10(Spr), 2-17. https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.1021 CR - Boyd, J.H., & Prescott, E.C. (1986). Financial intermediary-coalitions. Journal of Economic Theory, 38(2), 211-232, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(86)90115-8 CR - Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111 CR - Busch, R., & Kick, T. (2009). Income diversification in the German Banking Industry. Deutsche Bundesbank Eurosystem. Discussion Paper. Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies. No: 09. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2794032 CR - Buyuran, B., & Ekşi, İ. H. (2021). Revenue diversification and bank performance: Evidence from Turkey. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 18(1), 7-18. Retrieved from: https://ojs.lib.uom.gr/index.php/seeje/article/view/9694 CR - Çınar, Y., Gürsel, G., & Tuzcu, S. E. (2018). The impacts of diversification strategies of Turkish banks on their profitability and risk: A panel data analysis. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 73(4), 1141-1168. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002529 CR - Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Laeven, L. & Levine, R. (2003). The impact of bank regulations, concentration, and institutions on bank margins, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3030. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3030 CR - Demsetz, R. S., & Strahan, P. E. (1997). Diversification, size, and risk at bank holding companies. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(3), 300-313. https://doi.org/10.2307/2953695 CR - Diamond, D. (1984). Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring. Review of Economic Studies 59, 393–414. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297430 CR - Fiordelisi, F., Marques-Ibanez, D., & Molyneux, P. (2011). Efficiency and risk in European banking. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(5), 1315-1326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.10.005 CR - Gürbüz, A. O., Yanik, S., & Aytürk, Y. (2013). Income diversification and bank performance: Evidence from Turkish banking sector. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 7(1), 9-29. Retrieved from: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1352239 CR - Hayden, E., Porath, D., & Westernhagen, N. V. (2007). Does diversification improve the performance of German banks? Evidence from individual bank loan portfolios. Journal of Financial Services Research, 32(3), 123-140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-007-0017-0 CR - Hou, X., Li, S., Li, W., & Wang, Q. (2018). Bank diversification and liquidity creation: Panel Granger-causality evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 71, 87-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.004 CR - Jensen, M.C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323-329. Retrieved from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1818789.pdf CR - Kusi, B. A., Adzobu, L., Abasi, A. K., & Ansah-Adu, K. (2020). Sectoral loan portfolio concentration and bank stability: Evidence from an emerging economy. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 19(1), 66-99. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719878597 CR - Laeven, L., & Levine, R. (2007). Is there a diversification discount in financial conglomerates? Journal of Financial Economics, 85(2), 331-367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.06.001 CR - Lee, C. C., Chen, P. F., & Zeng, J. H. (2020). Bank income diversification, asset correlation and systemic risk. South African Journal of Economics, 88(1), 71-89. https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12235 CR - Leković, M. (2018). Investment diversification as a strategy for reducing investment risk. Ekonomski Horizonti, 20(2), 173-187. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonhor1802173L CR - Lepetit, L., Nys, E., Rous, P., & Tarazi, A. (2008). Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 32(8), 1452-1467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.002 CR - Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 CR - Li, X., Feng, H., Zhao, S., & Carter, D. A. (2021). The effect of revenue diversification on bank profitability and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 43, 101957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.101957 CR - Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91 https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974 CR - Meslier, C., Tacneng, R., & Tarazi, A. (2014). Is bank income diversification beneficial? Evidence from an emerging economy. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 31, 97-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.03.007 CR - Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951 CR - Pham, K. D., Ngo, M. V., Nguyen, H. H., & Le, V. L. T. (2021). Financial crisis and diversification strategies: The impact on bank risk, and performance. Economics and Business Letters, 10(3), 249-261. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.10.3.2021.249-261 CR - Sanya, S., & Wolfe, S. (2011). Can banks in emerging economies benefit from revenue diversification?. Journal of Financial Services Research, 40(1), 79-101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-010-0098-z CR - Sawada, M. (2013). How does the stock market value bank diversification? Empirical evidence from Japanese banks. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 25, 40-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.08.001 CR - Stiroh, K. J. (2004). Diversification in banking: Is noninterest income the answer? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36(5), 853-882. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2004.0076 CR - Şak, N. (2018). Panel birim kök testleri [Panel unit root tests]. In S. Güriş (Ed.), Uygulamalı Panel veri ekonometrisi [Applied panel data econometrics] (pp. 261-314). İstanbul, Turkey: Der Yayınları. CR - Tabak, B. M., Fazio, D. M., & Cajueiro, D. O. (2011). The effects of loan portfolio concentration on Brazilian banks’ return and risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 35(11), 3065-3076. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.04.006 The Banks Association of Turkey. (2021). List of banks. Retrieved from: https://www.tbb.org.tr/en/modules/banka-bilgileri/banka_Listesi.asp?tarih=31/12/2020 CR - Tunay, K. B. (2015). Kredi portföylerinde sektörel yoğunlaşma ve risk ilişkisi: Türk ticari bankacılık sektörü üzerine bir analiz [Sectoral concentration in loan portfolio and risk relationship: An analysis on The Turkish commercial banking sector]. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 9(1), 127-147. Retrieved from: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1351994 CR - Ün, T. (2018). Panel veri modellerinin varsayımlarının testi [Testing the assumptions of panel data models]. In S. Güriş (Ed.) Uygulamalı Panel Veri Ekonometrisi [Applied panel data econometrics] (pp. 75-101). İstanbul, Turkey: Der Yayınları. CR - Williams, B. (2016). The impact of non-interest income on bank risk in Australia. Journal of Banking and Finance, 73, 16-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.07.019 CR - Yalçın, D., & Tunay, B. K. (2020). Kredi portföylerinde sektörel yoğunlaşma ve risk ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği [Sectoral concentration in loan portfolio and risk relationship: The case of Turkey]. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 12(22), 344-358. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.688328 CR - Yılmaz Türkmen, S., & Yiğit, İ. (2012). Diversification in banking and its effect on banks’ performance: Evidence from Turkey. American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 2(12), 111-119. Retrieved from: http://193.140.143.67/bitstream/handle/11424/120700/1583929600.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y CR - Zhou, K. (2014) The effect of income diversification on bank risk: Evidence from China. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(3), 201-213. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X5003S312 UR - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ufuksbedergi/issue//1099579 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2358119 ER -