TY  - JOUR
T1  - Ulusal güvenlik karar problemlerinde karşıtsal risk analizi: Doğu Akdeniz problemi örnek modelleme
TT  - Adversarial risk analysis in national security decision problems: a hypothetical case of Eastern Mediterranean conflict
AU  - Çinicioğlu, Esma Nur
AU  - Bozcu, Gülşah
PY  - 2023
DA  - June
DO  - 10.58588/aru-jfeas.1247679
JF  - Ardahan Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
JO  - ARU JFEAS
PB  - Ardahan University
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2148-7154
SP  - 62
EP  - 73
VL  - 5
IS  - 1
LA  - tr
AB  - Karşıtsal risk analizi (KRA) akıllı rakipleri barındıran problemlerde karar vericiye sağladığı, rakibin karar verme sürecini ve düşünme sistematiğini analiz etme, rakibin atması muhtemel adımları öngörme ve bu doğrultuda beklenen faydasını maksimize edecek karar seçeneğini belirleme gibi özellikleri ile stratejik karar problemlerine başarılı bir şekilde uygulanabilecek etkin bir modelleme yöntemidir. KRA’nın, klasik oyun teorisinin aksine ortak bilgi varsayımını benimsememesi ve rakip tarafın karar ve faydaları için öznel bir olasılık dağılımı kullanması, KRA ile modellenen problemlerin gerçekçi bir şekilde çözümüne imkân tanımaktadır. Milli güvenliği ilgilendiren stratejik karar problemlerinde sistematik bir bakış açısı ve değerlendirme imkânı sağlayan analitik modellerin kullanılması önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin Doğu Akdeniz problemi ele alınmış ve konu çerçevesinde oluşturulan hipotetik bir örneğin KRA ile modellemesi ve çözümü yapılmıştır. Oluşturulan model, hem rakip tarafın düşünce sistematiğinin analiz edilmesine imkân vermekte hem de model çerçevesinde gözlemler dâhilinde senaryo analizlerini mümkün kılmaktadır. Stratejik bakımdan önemi büyük, milli güvenliğe dair problemlerin değerlendirilmesi için, farklı, etkin analitik modellerin uygulanabilirliğinin gösterilmesi önemlidir. Bu çalışma, bir ulusal güvenlik stratejik karar problemi olan Doğu Akdeniz meselesini konu alması ve çalışmada oluşturulan alan hipotetik modeli KRA ile çözmesi bakımından bir ilk niteliğindedir.
KW  - Karşıtsal Risk Analizi
KW  - Etki Diyagramları
KW  - Doğu Akdeniz Problemi
KW  - Savunma-Saldırı Modeli
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.58588/aru-jfeas.1247679
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2939002
ER  -