TY  - JOUR
T1  - China Total Energy Consumption Forecast with Optimized Continuous Conformable Fractional Grey Model
AU  - Bilgil, Halis
AU  - Erdinç, Ümmügülsüm
PY  - 2024
DA  - December
Y2  - 2024
DO  - 10.17093/alphanumeric.1447211
JF  - Alphanumeric Journal
JO  - Alphanumeric
PB  - Muhlis ÖZDEMİR
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2148-2225
SP  - 157
EP  - 168
VL  - 12
IS  - 3
LA  - en
AB  - One of the methods used for forecasting of the time series is the fractional grey modeling approach. In this paper, the OCCFGM(1,1) model is utilized to forecasting of the total energy consumption data of China. The optimal values of $\alpha$ and $r$, which are fractional parameters in the model, are calculated using the Brute Force algorithm. Data collected from official sources from 2013 to 2022 are used to build the forecasting model, while data from 2013 to 2020 are employed to evaluate the accuracy at the model. The obtained results indicate that the OCCFGM(1,1) model exhibits superior forecasting performance compared to the other models under consideration.
KW  - Conformable fractional calculus
KW  - Energy consumption
KW  - Fractional grey model
KW  - Brute Force
KW  - Least squares method.
KW  - OCCFGM
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.1447211
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/3772940
ER  -