TY - JOUR T1 - Erdoğan’s Electoral Success: Geopolitics, Social Class and New Nationalism TT - Erdoğan'ın Seçim Başarısı: Jeopolitik, Sosyal Sınıf ve Yeni Milliyetçilik AU - Çınkara, Gökhan AU - Coşkun, Batu PY - 2025 DA - March Y2 - 2025 DO - 10.36484/liberal.1527011 JF - Liberal Düşünce Dergisi PB - Liberte Yayınları WT - DergiPark SN - 1300-8781 SP - 45 EP - 72 IS - 117 LA - en AB - This study investigates the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2023 general and presidential elections within the context of multidimensional crises, including economic, geopolitical, and social challenges. The research identifies three core areas that were key to Erdoğan’s electoral success. First, the government addressed economic issues such as welfare erosion, employment loss, and the lack of class mobility through the implementation of a novel class policy. Secondly, Erdoğan capitalized on rising nationalism driven by the influx of immigrants and therefore succeeded in establishing a new hegemonic space through a national identity narrative which he subsequently centered his political discourse on. Lastly, despite confrontations stemming from Türkiye’s active and revisionist foreign policy orientation during the 2010s, Erdoğan managed to navigate the geopolitical crises beginning in 2020 with a fresh alliance strategy. This study outlines theessential mechanisms by which Erdoğan succeeded in maintaining political power amidst complex crises. KW - Turkish Politics KW - Recep Tayyip Erdogan KW - Turkish Elections N2 - Bu çalışma, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın 2023 milletvekili ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinde yeniden seçilmesini ekonomik, jeopolitik ve sosyal zorlukları içeren çok boyutlu krizler bağlamında incelemektedir. Araştırma, Erdoğan’ın seçim başarısında kilit rol oynayan üç temel alanı tanımlamaktadır. Birincisi, hükümet yeni bir sınıf politikası uygulayarak refah erozyonu, istihdam kaybı ve sınıfsal hareketsizlik gibi ekonomik sorunları ele almıştır. İkinci olarak, Erdoğan göçmen akınıyla yükselen milliyetçilikten faydalanmış ve böylece daha sonra siyasi söylemini üzerine oturtacağı bir ulusal kimlik anlatısı aracılığıyla yeni bir hegemonik alan kurmayı başarmıştır. Son olarak, Türkiye’nin 2010’lardaki aktif ve revizyonist dış politika yöneliminden kaynaklanan çatışmalara rağmen, Erdoğan 2020’de başlayan jeopolitik krizleri yeni bir ittifak stratejisiyle yönetmeyi başarmıştır. Bu çalışma, Erdoğan’ın karmaşık krizlerin ortasında siyasi gücünü korumayı başardığı temel mekanizmaları ana hatlarıyla ortaya koymaktadır. CR - Aslan, A. (2018). Yerli ve Milli Siyaset. in AK parti’nin 15 yılı: Toplum (pp. 79-103). SETA Kitapları. CR - Aytürk, İ., & Esen, B. (2021). The Far Right, Labor Unions, and the Working Class in Türkiye since the 1960s. The Middle East Journal, 75(4), 511–531. https://doi.org/10.3751/75.4.11 CR - Balta, E. (2018). The AKP’s Foreign Policy as Populist Governance. Middle East Report (New York, N.Y. 1988), 48(288), 14–18. CR - Barkey, H. J. (2021). Erdoğan, Turkish Foreign Policy, and the Middle East. in The Contemporary Middle East in an Age of Upheaval (pp. 170–184). Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781503627703-012 CR - Başkan, B. (2019). Türkiye between Qatar and Saudi Arabia: Changing Regional and Bilateral Relations. Uluslararası İlişkiler / International Relations, 16(62), 85–99. CR - Blanchard, C. M., Arieff, A., Danon, Z., Katzman, K., Sharp, J. M., & Zanotti, J. (2012). Change in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. Policy (Nos. 7–5700; CRS Report for Congress). CR - Carkoglu, A., & Yildirim, K. (2018). Change and Continuity in Türkiye’s June 2018 Elections. Insight Türkiye, 20(4), 153–183. CR - Carnes, N., & Lupu, N. (2021). The White Working Class and the 2016 Election. Perspectives on Politics, 19(1), 55–72. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592720001267 CR - Çay, F. (2022). Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Distinctive Populist Discourse: Content Analysis. Reflektif. Istanbul Bilgi University, 3(1), 201–222. https://doi.org/10.47613/reflektif.2022.65 CR - Christofis, N. (2023). Kemalism vs Erdoğanism: Continuities and Discontinuities in Türkiye’s Hegemonic State Ideology. Middle East Critique, 0(0), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/19436149.2023.2251329 CR - Çinkara, G. (2023). Türkiye’de Politik Elitlerin Dönüşümünde Milliyetçiliğin Jeopolitik Çerçevesi Hafiza, Kimlik ve Mekan. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 10(21). https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1234614 CR - Çoşkun, B. (2023a, January 12). Erdoğan Rediscovers Kemalism—Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/88789 CR - Çoşkun, B. (2023b, June 15). Erdoğan’s Republic: The Next Five Years—Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/89969 CR - Çınar, M. (2018). Türkiye’s ‘Western’ or ‘Muslim’ identity and the AKP’s civilizational discourse. Turkish Studies, 19(2), 176–197. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2017.1411199 CR - Demir, İ. (2020). Transformation of the Turkish Defense Industry: The Story and Rationale of the Great Rise. Insight Türkiye, 22(3), 17–40. CR - Duran, B. (2017, September 9). “Milli ve yerli” söyleminin içini kim dolduracak?.Sabah. https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/duran/2017/09/09/milli-ve-yerli-soyleminin-icini-kim-dolduracak CR - Erçetin, T., & Erdoğan, E. (2018). How Türkiye’s repetitive elections affected the populist tone in the discourses of the Justice and Development Party Leaders. Philosophy & Social Criticism, 44(4), 382–398. https://doi.org/10.1177/0191453718755207 CR - Esayan, M. (2016, March 28). Yeni çatımız: Yerli ve milli…. Akşam. https://www.aksam.com.tr/yazarlar/markar-esayan/yeni-catimiz--yerli-ve-milli-e2-80-a6-c2/haber-501976 CR - Esen, B., & Yardimci-Geyikçi, Ş. (2020). The Turkish presidential elections of 24 June 2018. Mediterranean Politics, 25(5), 682-689. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2019.1619912 CR - Fırat, B. Ö. (2020). Crisis, Common Sense, and Boredom: A Critique of Neoliberal Hegemony in Türkiye. In M. Boletsi, J. Houwen, & L. Minnaard (Eds.), Languages of Resistance, Transformation, and Futurity in Mediterranean Crisis-Scapes: From Crisis to Critique (pp. 81–100). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36415-1_5 CR - Gabbatt, A. (2016, June 25). Trump and Brexit: Parallel campaigns built on fear, anger and charisma. CR - Göksu, O. (2019). Siyasal Liderlikte Yeni Bir Model Önerisi: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Örneği. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 18(3), Article 3. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.491824 CR - Görener, A. Ş., & Ucal, M. Ş. (2011). The Personality and Leadership Style of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy. Turkish Studies, 12(3), 357–381. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2011.604216 CR - Grigoriadis, I. N. (2017). Democratic Transition and the Rise of Populist Majoritarianism: Constitutional Reform in Greece and Türkiye. Springer. CR - Gündoğmuş, Y. N., & Akan, A. K. (2023, July 21). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Körfez ülkeleriyle işbirliğimiz önümüzdeki dönemde somut projelerle güçlenerek gelişecek. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/politika/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-korfez-ulkeleriyle-isbirligimizonumuzdeki-donemde-somut-projelerle-guclenerek-gelisecek/2951167 CR - Güner, S. E. (2023). Populist Authoritarianism: The Rise of Trump and Erdogan. The International Journal of Interdisciplinary Global Studies, 18(2), 1–15. CR - Güzel, S. Ç. (2022). Elitizmden Popülizme: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi’ndeki Paradigmal Dönüşüm ve Ekrem İmamoğlu Örneği. Liberal Düşünce Dergisi, 108, Article 108. https://doi.org/10.36484/liberal.1073255 CR - Hanssen, J., & Ghazal, A. N. (2020). The Oxford Handbook of Contemporary Middle-Eastern and North African History. Oxford University Press. CR - Islam, T. (2016). Türkiye’s Akp Foreign Policy Toward Syria: Shifting Policy During the Arab Spring. International Journal on World Peace, 33(1), 7–41. CR - Kahraman, H. B. (2008). Türk siyasetinin yapısal analizi: Kavramlar, kuramlar, kurumlar. Agora Kitaplığı. CR - Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2012). Kulturkampf in Türkiye: The Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010. South European Society and Politics, 17(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2011.600555 CR - Karataşlı, Ş. S., & Kumral, Ş. (2023). Crisis of capitalism and cycles of right-wing populism in contemporary Türkiye: The making and unmaking of Erdoğanist hegemony. Journal of Agrarian Change, 23(1), 22-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/joac.12501 CR - Karmon, E., & Barak, M. (2018). Erdogan’s Türkiye and the Palestinian Issue. Perspectives on Terrorism, 12(2), 74–85. CR - Kocamaner, H. (2018, December 15). The Politics of Family Values in Erdogan’s New Türkiye. MERIP. https://merip.org/2018/12/the-politics-of-family-values-in-erdogans-new-Türkiye/ CR - Korkin, E. (2020). Merkez-Çevre Ayrımından Beyaz-Zenci Türk Ayrımına Türk Siyasal Hayatında Sosyal Bölünme. Akademik İzdüşüm Dergisi, 5(2), Article 2. CR - Laleoğlu, B., & Özdemir, F. Z. (2023, June 2). Rapor: 2023 Cumhurbaşkanı Seçimi | Sonuçların Karşılaştırmalı Analizi. SETA. https://www.setav.org/rapor-2023-cumhurbaskani-secimi-sonuclarin-karsilastirmali-analizi/ CR - Lamont, M., Park, B. Y., & Ayala-Hurtado, E. (2017). Trump’s electoral speeches and his appeal to the American white working class: Trump’s electoral speeches. The British Journal of Sociology, 68, S153–S180. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.12315 CR - Morgan, S., & Lee, J. (2018). Trump Voters and the White Working Class. Sociological Science, 5(10), 234–245. https://doi.org/10.15195/v5.a10 CR - Morgül, K. (2024). Beyond the inclusion–exclusion dichotomy in populism studies: Erdoğan’s Muslim nationalist discourse on Syrian refugees. American Journal of Cultural Sociology, 12(1), 138-168. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41290-022-00175-0 CR - Oner, I., & Shehadeh, L. (2023). Populist Discourse beyond the Borders: The Case of Erdogan and Chavez. Populism, 6(1), 28–54. CR - Özışık, F. U. (2021). The “New Türkiye” Narrative and The Hegemonic Struggle of Justice and Development Party and Erdogan: A Gramscian Perspective (2002-2019). Liberal Düşünce Dergisi, 26(102), Article 102. https://doi.org/10.36484/liberal.894173. CR - Özışık, F. U. (2023). Kamu Politikası Analizinde Referans Çerçeveleri Ve Türkiye Örneği: “Yerli Ve Milli” Yeni Türkiye’de Yükselen Milli Savunma Sanayii Politikaları. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 10(23), Article 23. https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1351462. CR - Panayirci, U. C., & Iseri, E. (2014). A Content Analysis of the AKP’s “Honorable” Foreign Policy Discourse: The Nexus of Domestic–International Politics. Turkish Studies, 15(1), 62–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2014.890414 CR - Saraçoğlu, C., & Demirkol, Ö. (2015). Nationalism and Foreign Policy Discourse in Türkiye Under the AKP Rule: Geography, History and National Identity. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 42(3), 301–319. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2014.947152 CR - SES. (2022, February 11). Aile ve Sosyal Hizmetler Bakanlığı 2023 Yılı Bütçe Tasarısı Bağımlılık İlişkisini Derinleştiren, Seçime Yatırım Bütçesidir! – SES. https://ses.org.tr/2022/11/aile-ve-sosyal-hizmetler-bakanligi-2023-yili-butce-tasarisi-bagimlilik-iliskisini-derinlestiren-secime-yatirim-butcesidir/ CR - Soyaltin-Colella, D., & Demiryol, T. (2023). Unusual middle power activism and regime survival: Türkiye’s drone warfare and its regime-boosting effects. Third World Quarterly, 44(4), 724–743. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2022.2158080 CR - Soydan, B. (2018a, June 28). İşçi sınıfı neden Erdoğan’a oy verdi? T24. https://t24.com.tr/yazarlar/baris-soydan/isci-sinifi-neden-erdogana-oy-verdi,20002 CR - Soydan, B. (2018b, July 2). İşçi sınıfının Erdoğan’a oy vermesinin sırrı: Karadenizliler. T24. https://t24.com.tr/yazarlar/baris-soydan/isci-sinifinin-erdogana-oy-vermesinin-sirri-karadenizliler,20035 CR - Taş, H. (2018). Contained Uncertainty: Türkiye’s June 2018 Elections and Their Consequences (Vol. 4). GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Nahost-Studien. CR - Tekinırk, M., & Irons, D. (2024). Making Sense of Erdoğan’s Immigration and Naturalization Policies Amidst Türkiye’s Migrant and Economic Crises. https://www.europenowjournal.org/2024/08/15/making-sense-of-erdogans-immigration-and-naturalization-policies-amidst-Türkiyes-migrant-and-economic-crises/ CR - Tocci, N., Taspinar, Ö., Barkey, H. J., Lecha, E. S. i, & Nafaa, and H. (2011). Türkiye and the Arab Spring. Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy from a Transatlantic Perspective (Mediterranean Paper Series). The German Marshall Fund. https://policycommons.net/artifacts/4312092/Türkiye-and-the-arab-spring/5122482/ CR - Tosun, G. E. (2016). Reconsidering the Presidential System in Türkiye. Insight Türkiye, 18(4), 127–142. CR - Türk, H. B. (2018). ‘Populism as a medium of mass mobilization’: The case of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—H Bahadir Türk, 2018. International Area Studies Review, 21(2), 150–168. https://doi.org/10.1177/2233865918761111 CR - Tuğal, C. (2009). Passive revolution: Absorbing the Islamic challenge to capitalism. Stanford University Press. Ülgül, M. (2019). Erdoğan’s Personal Diplomacy and Turkish Foreign Policy. Insight Turkey, 21(4). https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2019214.09 CR - Volfová, G. Ö. (2016). Türkiye’s Middle Eastern Endeavors: Discourses and Practices of Neo-Ottomanism under the AKP. Die Welt Des Islams, 56(3/4), 489–510. CR - White, J. B. (2014). Muslim Nationalism and the New Turks. Princeton University Press. CR - Yanasmayan, Z., Üstübici, A., & Kasli, Z. (2019). Under the shadow of civilizationist popülist discourses. New Diversities, 21(2), 37-51. CR - Yavuz, M. H. (2020). The Modes of Ottomanism. in M. H. Yavuz (Ed.), Nostalgia for the Empire: The Politics of Neo-Ottomanism. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197512289.003.0002 CR - Yüksel, A. S. (2022). “Economic nationalisms” and the immediacy of war: Türkiye’s Syrian policy. Anuac, 11(2), Article 2. https://doi.org/10.7340/anuac2239-625X-4932 UR - https://doi.org/10.36484/liberal.1527011 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4117293 ER -