@article{article_1552946, title={Impacts of COVID-19 and Exchange Rates on Olive Oil Markets and Food Security}, journal={Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi}, volume={27}, pages={123–137}, year={2025}, DOI={10.21180/iibfdkastamonu.1552946}, author={Urak, Faruk and Küçük, Nihat and Bozma, Gürkan and Bilgiç, Abdulbaki and Yıldız, Mehmet Selim}, keywords={COVID-19, exchange rates, olive oil markets, prices, volatility, food security}, abstract={The objective of this research is to identify the long-term fluctuation spillovers in the Turkish extra-virgin olive oil and crude olive oil markets using COVID-19 and the external dollar exchange rate variables and to examine the asymmetry of these spillovers. The analyses required for this research were performed with the VECM (1)-Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) model, using daily data for the period from May 2005 to June 2024. According to the empirical findings, both brief shocks and long-term uncertainties have significantly increased the conditional variances of the extra-virgin and crude olive oil return series. An increase in long-term uncertainty in the extra-virgin olive oil market has a dampening effect on the long-term volatility in the crude olive oil market. It was observed that the conditional variances of the extra-virgin and crude olive oil return series were negatively affected by fluctuations stemming from COVID-19 in the long run. In the long term, COVID-19 increased uncertainties in bilateral interactions between markets, seriously threatening food security by negatively impacting consumer access to crude and extra-virgin olive oil. It was noted that fluctuations in the exchange rate reduced the volatilities in the extra virgin and crude olive oil markets. It is recommended that policymakers in Turkey implement specific policies for food commodities, considering the possibility of disruptions in global food supply chains due to pandemics or similar crises.}, number={1}, publisher={Kastamonu University}, organization={Bu çalışmada herhangi bir kurumdan destek alınmamıştır.}