TY  - JOUR
T1  - Para Politikaları Belirsizlikleri Hisse Senedi Getirilerini Nasıl Etkiliyor?  Türkiye Örneği
TT  - How Do Monetary Policy Uncertainties Affect Stock Returns? The Case of Turkey
AU  - Ceylan, Fatih
PY  - 2025
DA  - January
Y2  - 2024
DO  - 10.17541/optimum.1573944
JF  - Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi
JO  - OJEMS
PB  - Usak University
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2148-4228
SP  - 121
EP  - 141
VL  - 12
IS  - 1
LA  - tr
AB  - Ülkelerarası finansal entegrasyonun giderek artmasıyla birlikte ABD ve Japonya gibi gelişmiş ülkelerde para politikaları kararları küresel finans piyasalar için belirleyici olabilmektedir. Bu ülkelerdeki para politikaları belirsizlikleri özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde finansal piyasalara hızlıca yayılabilmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışma  Baker vd. (2016), Husted vd. (2020), Arbatlı vd . (2017) tarafından hazırlanan ABD ve Japonya için gazete bazlı çeşitli para politikası belirsizlik endeksleri ile Türkiye hisse senedi getirisi arasındaki etkileşimini araştırmaktadır. 2003-2024 dönem aralığında aylık veriler ile Kantil-Kantil yaklaşımı (Quantile on Quantile Approach) kullanılan çalışmada son dönemde literatürde sıklıkla kullanılan para politikası belirsizlik endekslerinin farklı kantillerdeki derecelerine farklı kantillerdeki hisse senedi piyasasının tepkisi ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular farklı para politikası belirsizlik endekslerinin Türkiye hisse senedi getirilerine etkisinin kantillere özgü özellikler sergilediğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle ABD ve Japonya merkezli para politikaları belirsizliklerinin Türkiye hisse senedi getirilerine etkisi asimetrik ve heterojendir. Bu sonuçların yatırımcılar, portföy yöneticileri ve politika yapıcılar için bazı değerli çıkarımlar yapmalarına imkan sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.
KW  - Para Politikası Belirsizliği
KW  - Hisse Senedi Getirileri
KW  - Türkiye
N2  - With the increasing financial integration among countries, monetary policy decisions in advanced economies such as the US and Japan can be decisive for global financial markets. Monetary policy uncertainties in these countries can quickly spread to financial markets, especially in emerging economies. Therefore, this study investigates the interaction between various newspaper-based monetary policy uncertainty indices for the US and Japan prepared by Baker et al. (2016), Husted et al. (2020), Arbatlı et al. (2017) and Türkiye stock returns. The study, which uses the Quantile on Quantile Approach with monthly data for the period 2003-2024, tries to reveal the response of the stock market in different quantiles to different quantiles of monetary policy uncertainty indices, which have been frequently used in the literature recently. The findings show that the effect of different monetary policy uncertainty indices on Türkiye stock returns exhibits quantile-specific characteristics. Therefore, the impact of US and Japan-based monetary policy uncertainty on Türkiye stock returns is asymmetric and heterogeneous. These results are expected to provide some valuable implications for investors, portfolio managers and policy makers.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1573944
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4316729
ER  -