@article{article_1650007, title={Strong union or just friendshoring? Assessing trade uncertainty and export patterns in Türkiye and EU-27 countries: A GWR approach}, journal={Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi}, pages={27–32}, year={2025}, DOI={10.18070/erciyesiibd.1650007}, author={Özsalman, Emre and Bayat, Tayfur}, keywords={Exports, Trade policy uncertainty, GWR, EU-27}, abstract={In the last twenty years, the world has witnessed many structural shocks originating from political, financial, and epidemic diseases. While these shocks deeply affect countries’ economies, they also increase the level of uncertainty on a global scale. In order to establish more resilient systems based on the shocks experienced, countries have turned to developing their trade relations and reviving the trade that has shrunk during crisis periods. In this context, the concept of “friendshoring” that emerged refers to strengthening trade between countries with similar political and economic values. This study examined the connection between trade uncertainty and bilateral trade relations within Türkiye and EU27 countries using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method. An analysis of bilateral export flows from 2003 to 2022, in conjunction with the World Trade Uncertainty Index (WTUI) developed by Ahir, Bloom, and Furceri (2022), indicates that trade uncertainty significantly affected exports in only four EU member states: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Croatia. This result shows that, despite the overall unity of the European Union, only certain groups of countries demonstrate trade resilience in times of crisis and that the friendshoring approach is gaining increasing importance within the Union.}, number={71}, publisher={Erciyes University}