TY - JOUR T1 - Determinants of Participation in Global Value Chains: The Case of Türkiye TT - Türkiye Küresel Değer Zincirlerine Katılımın Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Örneği AU - Özdamarlar, Döne AU - Wıgley, Arzu PY - 2025 DA - August Y2 - 2025 DO - 10.25295/fsecon.1654468 JF - Fiscaoeconomia JO - FSECON PB - Ahmet Arif EREN WT - DergiPark SN - 2564-7504 SP - 1506 EP - 1524 VL - 9 IS - 3 LA - en AB - The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of Türkiye’s participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) by using data for 34 manufacturing, mining, and service sectors over the period 2006 to 2020. To achieve this, Augmented Mean Group (AMG), System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM), and Fixed Effects (FE) methods are employed in the estimations. Our estimation results indicate that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is one of the key determinants that enhances Türkiye’s backward, forward, and total GVCs participation. An increase in the tariff rate reduces Türkiye’s integration into GVCs by decreasing backward as well as total participation. On the other hand, an increase in labor costs in Türkiye leads to a rise in backward GVC participation while having a detrimental effect on both forward and total participation. Our estimation results also suggest that backward GVC participation is particularly prominent in capital-intensive sectors. On the other hand, although the importance of sectoral real exchange rates and skilled and unskilled labor varies across different indicators of GVC integration, these variables are not the primary determinants for Türkiye’s total participation in GVCs. KW - Global Value Chains KW - GVCs KW - Determinants of Participation in GVCs KW - Panel Data Analysis N2 - Bu makalenin amacı, 2006-2020 döneminde üretim, madencilik ve hizmet olmak üzere 34 sektöre ait verileri kullanarak Türkiye’nin Küresel Değer Zincirlerine (KDZ) katılımının belirleyicilerini tespit etmektir. Bunu amaç doğrultusunda, tahminlerde Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup (AMG), Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi (Sistem GMM) ve Sabit Etkiler (FE) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarımız, Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırım’ın (FDI) Türkiye’nin geriye dönük, ileriye dönük ve toplam KDZ katılımını artıran temel belirleyicilerden biri olduğunu göstermektedir. Tarife oranındaki bir artış, geriye dönük ve toplam katılımı azaltarak Türkiye’nin KDZ’lere entegrasyonunu olumsuz etkilemektedir. Öte yandan, Türkiye’de işgücü maliyetlerindeki bir artış hem ileriye dönük hem de toplam katılım üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahipken geriye dönük katılımda bir artışa yol açmaktadır. Tahmin sonuçlarımız ayrıca geriye dönük GVC katılımının özellikle sermaye yoğun sektörlerde belirgin olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan, sektörel reel döviz kurunun, vasıflı ve vasıfsız işgücünün önemi, KDZ entegrasyonunu gösteren farklı göstergeler arasında değişiklik gösterse de bu değişkenler Türkiye’nin KDZ’lere toplam katılımının temel belirleyicileri değildir. CR - Akgündüz, Y. E., Van den Berg, M., & Hassink, W. (2019). The impact of currency depreciation on exports: Evidence from Turkish firms. Economic Modelling, 82, 203-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.02.011 CR - Akkoyunlu Wigley, A. S., Mihci, S., & Ataç, N. K. (2018). Türkiye imalat sanayii sektörlerinin küresel değer zincirleri içerisindeki konumu ve rekabet gücü: 2000–2011. Türkiye ekonomisinde kalkınma ve dönüşüm Taner Berksoy’a armağan (217–249). İmge. CR - Altun, A., Turan, T., & Yanıkkaya, H. (2023). Do Turkish firms benefit from GVC participation?. International Journal of Emerging Markets. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-02-2022-0334 CR - Antras, P., & Chor, D. (2021). Global value chains (NBER Working Paper No. 28549; Tuck School of Business Working Paper No. 3804547). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3804547 CR - Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968 CR - Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D CR - Ateş, E., Şanlisoy, S., & Yıldırım, M. (2022). Küresel değer zincirinin belirleyenleri. Optimum: Journal of Economics & Management Sciences, 9(2), 45-62. CR - Baldwin, R., Lopez-Gonzalez, J., & Taglioni, D. (2015). Supply-chain trade: A portrait of global patterns and several testable hypotheses. The World Economy, 38(11), 1682-1721. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12189 CR - Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data (4th ed.). Wiley. CR - Banerjee, B., & Zeman, J. (2020). Determinants of global value chain participation: Cross-country analysis. Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia. CR - Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8 CR - Buelens, C., & Tirpák, M. (2017). Foreign direct investment and global value chains: A comprehensive analysis. Journal of International Economics, 109, 1–19. CR - Cheng, L. K., Kwan, Y. K., & Lai, H. (2015). Determinants of global value chain participation: Cross-country evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 52, 221-258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.11.002 CR - Cieślik, A., Michałek, J. J., & Szczygielski, K. (2019). What matters for firms? Participation in global value chains in Central and East European countries. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 14(3), 481–502. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2019.023 CR - Dinçer, A. (2021). Determinants of sectoral and firm size export performance: Empirical evidence from the Turkish manufacturing industry, (Thesis No.669752) [Doctoral dissertation, Hacettepe University]. YÖK Ulusal Tez Merkezi. CR - Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. (2011). Econometrics for grumblers: A new look at the literature on cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Surveys, 25(1), 109-155. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2010.00624.x CR - Erduman, Y., Kılınç, Z., & Yüksel, A. (2020). The effects of exchange rate movements on sectoral exports: Evidence from Turkey. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Working Paper Series, 20(12), 1-27. CR - Fernandes, A. M., Kee, H. L., & Winkler, D. (2020). Determinants of global value chain participation: Cross-country evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 34(3), 521–540. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz028 CR - Gereffi, G., Humphrey, J., & Sturgeon, T. (2005). The governance of global value chains. Review of International Political Economy, 12(1), 78-104. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290500049805 CR - Gereffi, G., & Fernandez-Stark, K. (2016). Global value chain analysis: A primer (2nd ed.). Duke University Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness. CR - Gündoğdu, B., & Saraçoğlu, B. (2016). Türkiye’nin küresel değer zincirlerindeki yeri ve dikey uzmanlaşma analizi. İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 31(363), 21-48. https://doi.org/xxxx CR - Goldberg, L. S. (2004). Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 10(1), 1-16. CR - Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, 50(4), 1029-1054. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912775 CR - Herfindahl, O. C. (1950). Concentration in the U.S. steel industry. Columbia University. CR - Hirschman, A. O. (1945). National power and the structure of foreign trade. University of California Press. CR - Ignatenko, A., Raei, F., & Mircheva, B. (2019). Global value chains: What are the benefits and why do countries participate?. International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 19/18. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484399035.001 CR - Javorcik, B. S. (2004). Does foreign direct investment increase the productivity of domestic firms? In search of spillovers through backward linkages. American Economic Review, 94(3), 605-627. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828041464605 CR - Johnson, R. C., & Noguera, G. (2022). A portrait of trade in value-added over four decades. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(5), 896–911. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00665 CR - Kotturu, V., & Mahanty, B. (2017). Determinants of global value chain participation in India’s automotive sector. Journal of Economic Policy Research, 15(2), 67–85. CR - Koopman, R., Wang, Z., & Wei, S. J. (2014). Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports. American Economic Review, 104(2), 459-494. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.2.459 CR - Kowalski, P., González, J. L., Ragoussis, A., & Ugarte, C. (2015). Participation of developing countries in global value chains: Implications for trade and trade-related policies. CR - Los, B., Timmer, M. P., & de Vries, G. J. (2022). The role of value-added trade in global labor markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(2), 99–118. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.2.99 CR - Mehta, P. (2018). Global value chain participation in the manufacturing sector: A comparative analysis of the G7, the EU, and developing countries. International Trade Journal, 32(4), 305-330. CR - Olczyk, M., & Kordalska, A. (2017). Determinants of participation in global value chains: The case of Central and Eastern European countries. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 12(4), 613-632. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.v12i4.32 CR - OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 179. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/5js33lfw0xxn-en CR - Orlic, E. (2016). Foreign ownership, international certifications, and access to bank credit: Determinants of GVC integration. Journal of International Business and Economics, 20(3), 345–362 CR - OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 179. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/5js33lfw0xxn-en CR - Özer, S. K., Taglioni, D., & Winkler, D. (2016). Turkey’s Participation and Economic Upgrading in Global Value Chains. Handbook of Research on Comparative Economic Development Perspectives on Europe and the MENA Region (pp. 381). CR - Pesaran, M. H. (2021). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Empirical Economics, 60(1), 13-50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01875-7 CR - Rodrik, D. (2018). New technologies, global value chains, and developing economies. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper No. 25164. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25164 CR - Smith, J. (2015). The impact of trade policies on economic growth. Cambridge University Press. CR - Soliman, M., Ibrahim, M., & Shahbaz, M. (2021). Macroeconomic determinants of global value chain participation: Evidence from the MENA region. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(3), 389–414. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1879657 CR - Stehrer, R., & Stöllinger, R. (2015). The role of foreign direct investment in global value chains. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 33, 53-65. CR - Taglioni, D., & Winkler, D. (2016). Making global value chains work for development. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0157-0 CR - Taymaz, E., Voyvoda, E., & Yılmaz, K. (2011). Türkiye sanayisinde yapısal dönüşüm, rekabet gücü ve büyüme. TÜBİTAK Ekonomi ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 17(3), 45-76. CR - Timmer, M. P., Los, B., Stehrer, R., & de Vries, G. J. (2016). An anatomy of the global trade slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 release. National Institute Economic Review, 238(1), R33-R45. https://doi.org/10.1177/002795011623800112 CR - Tinta, A. A. (2017). Global value chains and economic integration: The case of ECOWAS. African Journal of Economic Policy, 24(2), 75-98. CR - TiVA. (2023). OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database. 5 February 2025. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/measuring-trade-in-value-added.htm CR - Toraganlı, B., & Yalçın, C. (2016). Real exchange rate movements and sectoral export performance: The case of Turkey. CBRT Working Paper Series, 16(21), 1-30. CR - Urata, S., & Baek, Y. (2020). Determinants of global value chain participation: Cross-country analysis. Asian Economic Policy Review, 15(2), 234-258. https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12277 CR - Van der Marel, E. (2015). Positioning on the global value chain map: Where do you want to be?. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7296. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7296 CR - Yanıkkaya, H., Doğan, B., & Karadağ, M. (2024). The impact of tariff barriers on global value chain participation: A sectoral analysis. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 33(1), 101-125. CR - Yameogo, N. D., & Jammeh, K. (2019). Human capital and participation in global value chains: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. African Development Review, 31(3), 274-286. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12382 CR - Winkler, D. (2020). Determinants of global value chain participation and upgrading: A review of the literature. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9146 CR - World Bank. (2020). World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. Washington, DC:World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1457-0 CR - World Bank. (2019). Global value chain development report 2019: Technological innovation, supply chain trade, and workers in a globalized world. World Bank Publications. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1457-0 CR - World Trade Organization (WTO) & Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2016). Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators: Methodology and results. WTO Publications. https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/tiva-2016-flyer.pdf UR - https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1654468 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4675514 ER -