TY - JOUR T1 - Development of Machine Learning based Cash Forecasting Models for Automated Teller Machines AU - Ulus, Ceren AU - Er, Uygar AU - Yusufoğlu, Nazlı AU - Akay, Mehmet Fatih PY - 2025 DA - June Y2 - 2025 DO - 10.70395/cunas.1680866 JF - Cukurova University Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences JO - CUNAS PB - Cukurova University WT - DergiPark SN - 2822-2938 SP - 35 EP - 44 VL - 4 IS - 1 LA - en AB - Nowadays, Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs) stand out as bank instruments where a high percentage of cash transactions take place. Accurately determining the amount of cash to be kept in ATMs is considered a strategic necessity for banks in terms of preventing service disruptions and maximizing customer satisfaction. Cash forecasting ensures that the amount of cash to be kept in ATMs is determined accurately. The aim of this study is to optimize cash management by forecasting daily cash demand in ATMs and thus help financial institutions prevent inefficiencies caused by cash depletion in ATMs and reduce customer dissatisfaction and operational costs. To achieve this, cash forecasting models have been developed using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The performance of the models has been evaluated with the Percentage Error (PE) metric. The developed models provided error values lower than 15%. A comprehensive evaluation has shown that accurate cash forecasts significantly increase the effectiveness of cash management. KW - Cash Forecasting KW - Cash Management KW - ATM KW - XGBoost CR - [1] Mubiru, K. P., Ssempijja, M. N. (2024). Modelling and optimization of ATM cash-loading under stochastic demand. Discover Analytics; 2: 14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44257-024-00023-0 CR - [2] Sarveswararao, V., Ravi, V., Vivek, Y. (2023). 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