@article{article_1695061, title={Modeling Vehicle Number Change and Carbon Footprint Trends in Turkey (2030–2040) Using Polynomial Regression}, journal={Akıllı Ulaşım Sistemleri ve Uygulamaları Dergisi}, volume={8}, pages={133–146}, year={2025}, DOI={10.51513/jitsa.1695061}, author={Söyler, Hüseyin and Karaoğlu, Ahmet}, keywords={Sustainable transportation, carbon footprint, electric vehicles, time series analysis, Polynomial Regression model, Turkey transportation sector.}, abstract={This study analyzes the changes in registered vehicle types in Turkey from 2004 to 2024 and presents forecasts for vehicle numbers and transportation-related carbon footprint for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Using a polynomial regression-based time series model, future trends for gasoline, diesel, and LPG-powered vehicles are projected, and their environmental impacts are evaluated under three distinct policy scenarios. The results show that if fossil-fueled vehicles continue to dominate, the carbon footprint will increase significantly; however, a rapid transition to electric and hybrid vehicles can substantially reduce emissions. The scenario-based projections indicate that advanced sustainability policies could achieve meaningful reductions in emissions by 2040. This study offers evidence-based policy recommendations to support Turkey’s pathway toward its 2053 Net Zero Emission target, emphasizing the critical role of low-carbon mobility transitions.}, number={2}, publisher={Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University}