@article{article_172322, title={HOW TO MINIMIZE OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS IN TURKEY: THE BONUS-MALUS SYSTEM}, journal={Sosyal Güvence}, pages={1–22}, year={2016}, author={Altunkaynak, Doç. Dr. Bülent and Öztürk, Pınar}, keywords={Bonus-Malus System, Occupational accidents, Premium income, Bayesian estimation}, abstract={<p>This study suggests Bonus-Malus System (BMS) to minimize the occupational accidents in Turkey. Having a 12-class structure with a specific premium ratio for each class considering the number of accidents, the suggested system depends on the principle that the premium ratios should vary according to the number of accidents occurring in a given business. To enter the system, all businesses start from class 6, with a premium ratio of 2%. For the calculation of premium ratios for each class, the expected value principle is used. It is observed by using Markov chains that the system reaches the steady state in 45 years’ time and the changes in the premium income of Social Security Institution (SSI) according to the distribution of businesses according to accident in the 5th, 10th, 20th, and 45th years are investigated. As a result, it is seen that the premium income of SSI will, in the course of time, decrease with BMS. In return, it is predicted that business are likely to try to escape punishment and turn to reward and increase measures against occupational accidents with a decrease in the number of accidents <br /> </p>}, number={9}, publisher={Sosyal Güvenlik Uzmanları Derneği}