@article{article_1887819, title={Revisiting the Link Between Consumer Confidence and Stock Market Performance in Türkiye: RALS Cointegration Evidence from the BIST 100}, journal={MTÜ Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Dergisi}, volume={6}, pages={110–123}, year={2026}, url={https://izlik.org/JA87HR76EE}, author={Sizer, Lütfü}, keywords={Consumer Confidence Index, BIST 100, Stock Market Performance, RALS Cointegration}, abstract={<p>This study investigates whether consumer confidence is associated with stock market performance in Türkiye by examining the long-run relationship between the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the BIST 100 index. The analysis employs monthly data from 2007:01 to 2025:12. Given the non-normality and volatility characteristics of financial time series, the study adopts a Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS)– augmented Engle–Granger cointegration approach to ensure reliable inference. The empirical findings indicate that while the conventional Engle–Granger test fails to detect cointegration, the RALS-augmented version provides strong evidence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between consumer confidence and stock market performance. Long-run coefficients are subsequently estimated using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) methods to address potential endogeneity and serial correlation. The results obtained from both estimators are highly consistent and indicate a positive, statistically significant long-run association between consumer confidence and the BIST 100 index. From an economic perspective, the findings suggest that improvements in consumer sentiment are associated with higher long-term stock market valuations through expectation-driven channels related to consumption prospects and risk appetite. Overall, the study contributes to the literature by providing more robust evidence that strengthens the empirical evidence on the long-run relationship between consumer confidence and stock market performance in Türkiye. </p>}, number={1}