@article{article_294900, title={Effect of Climate Change on Annual Streamflow of Bakırçay River}, journal={Adıyaman University Journal of Science}, volume={6}, pages={156–176}, year={2016}, author={Kale, Semih and Ejder, Tuba and Hisar, Olcay and Mutlu, Fatih}, keywords={Climate Change,Streamflow,Trend Analysis,Change-point Analysis,Bakırçay}, abstract={<p>Global warming and its impacts are known cause serious problems in terms of the
sustainability of natural resources. In this study, 43-years of meteorological parameters
such as temperature, precipitation and evaporation belong to 9 meteorological
observation stations in the coast of Aegean Sea, which is in the west of Turkey and 17-
years of data belongs to Bakırçay river which is in the same area with the stations and
flow into the Aegean Sea, were used. The Pettitt change-point analysis was used to
determine the change points belonging to climatic parameters and streamflow of the
river. In addition, the Box-Jenkins method and the ARIMA model were used for trend
analyses with which trends were determined. Furthermore, Kendall’s tau and
Spearman’s correlation tests were used, to determine the relationship between the two
parameters. As a result of the Pettitt test, while the change years for evaporation,
temperature and precipitation were determined to be 1997, 1993 and 1993 respectively,
the change years for the streamflow of Bakırçay river was determined to be 2008. As a
result of the trend analyses, it could be determined that there was a noticeable increase
in temperature and evaporation values, and that there was a decrease in the streamflow
of the river. However, it was also determined that the correlations between the river
streamflow and climatic parameters, and the change of these parameters according to years were determined to be statistically insignificant (p>0.05). As a result, it is
considered that the effects of climate change on river streamflow could be changeable
and that many factors such as anthropogenic effects, geographical location, agricultural
activities, residential areas and population density should be taken into account in
determining the effects of global warming on river systems. It is suggested that
evaluation models and management strategies specified regionally and appropriate to
the objective be used in evaluating the effects of the climate change on the hydrological
processes of rivers. <br /> </p>}, number={2}, publisher={Adıyaman University}