@article{article_306798, title={Predicting Avocado Production in Turkey for 2016-2025 Period Using Time Series Analysis}, journal={Yuzuncu Yıl University Journal of Agricultural Sciences}, volume={27}, pages={252–258}, year={2017}, DOI={10.29133/yyutbd.306798}, author={Akın, Melekşen and Eyduran, Sadiye Peral}, keywords={Avocado,Brown method,Exponential Smoothing,Production forecasting,Time Series}, abstract={<p style="margin-bottom:0px;text-align:justify;text-indent:35.4px;font-size:9px;line-height:normal;font-family:Tahoma;"> <span lang="en-us" style="font-size:10pt;font-family:’Times New Roman’, serif;" xml:lang="en-us">The main aim of this study
was to model avocado production in Turkey for 2016-2025 period using 1988-2015
years FAOSTAT data. Avocado production time series data for the 1988-2015
period was found non-stationary. Stationarity was obtained after taking the
first difference of the time series. Three Exponential Smoothing (Holt, Brown
and Damped) methods were compared to model avocado production. Brown
exponential smoothing model was the most appropriate forecasting model for
avocado production. We forecasted that the avocado production in Turkey will
show increase from 2004 tons to 3156 tons for the 2016-2025 period. The results
of this study could help policy makers to develop macro-level policies for food
safety and more powerful strategies for better planning avocado production in
Turkey for the future.  </span> <br /> </p>}, number={2}, publisher={Van Yuzuncu Yıl University}