TY - JOUR TT - The Effects Of Random Varıa Tıon Ofthe Prıces On Gold Mınıng Investment Rıskıness AU - Konuk, Adnan AU - Önder, Seyhan PY - 1999 DA - June Y2 - 1999 JF - Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi JO - ESOGÜ Müh Mim Fak Derg PB - Eskişehir Osmangazi University WT - DergiPark SN - 2630-5712 SP - 45 EP - 57 VL - 12 IS - 1 KW - Altın KW - Rassal Yürüyiif KW - Risklilik. N2 - The rccenl falls and random rarialions m world gold prices haveconsideralely increased loss riski in mine imestmenls. Sııch a case has esİcıblishedtheneedjor determination oftmcertainties in gold prices anıt iis effecls on mine investmenlriskiness.in Ihis sludy. firstty, using ıhe past ycars gold prices data a random walk pricepredicliun model has been investigaled. Thcn, a risk cmalysis model consiuering errordislribution puramclers in gold price prediclion has been developed, andby using ıhemmmg mvestment projecl dala of a gold mine in Tıırkey risk analyses have At-enrealised .As a result oflhe risk analyses, il has delermined Ihal wken gold pricesfellbelov S 250/troy om the mining company wil! he in loss wilh aprobahiiily of 85%: andwhen ıhe price increases över S 400/troy om Ihe mmpany v. iU be in profil withaprohability of 80%. CR - [l j T.D. Kaufmarm, "The Witchcraft and Logic of Gold Pricing-Polities, Inflation, Speculation and the Value of the Dallar are ali Contributing Factors", Minmg Eııgineering, Voi. 39, No. 7, pp. 857-858, 1987. CR - [2] D.P. Goldmaan, "Gold as a Gauge of Monetary Policy: Some Evidence From The Markets", i.affer Associates, www. laffer. com, September 26, 1997. CR - [3] M. Griffis, "Gold Falls to 12 Year Low", Sıocks. Guide@about.com, Date line: 12.01. 1997. CR - [4] B.A. Ooss, "Fonvard Pricing and Effıciency in the Silver Market", Resources Policy, Mareh 1983, pp. 54-63. CR - [5] B.E. Rudemıo, "Random Walk Models of Future Metal Prices". Trans. Instn. Min. Metali. (Sect A), 91, April 1982, pp. A71-74. CR - [6] J.F.C. Fisher, "The Analysis of Metal Markets and Future Prices", 13 Congress of the Council ofMining and Metali Inst., Singapure, 11-16 May İ986, 8 p. CR - [7] T.D. Kaufmann and R.A. Wınters, "A Simple Model For the Price of Gold", Working Paper. 89-3, Department of Mineral Economics, Colorado School of Mines, USA., 6 p., 19S9. CR - [8] S. Önder, "Altın Satış Fiyatları Tahmininin işletme Yatırımları Riskliliftine Etkileri", Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Osmangazi Oniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Eskişehir, 75 s., 1999. CR - [9] K. Gürtan, "istatistik ve Araştırma Melodları", tstanbul Üniversitesi Yayın No. 2941, 831 s., 1982. CR - [10] P. Bratley, B.L. Foy. and L.E. Schage., "A Guide to Simulation", Springer- Veriag, New York, 383 p., 1983. CR - [11] H.G. Yersel ve A. Konuk, "Manyezit Maden Işletmeciliğinde Sınır '/»SiO; Kararları Riskliliği", TMMOB Maden Müh. Odasi Madencilik Dergisi, Mart 1997. UR - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ogummf/article/329623 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/326600 ER -